Our man has two against the field in Saturday's Betfair Hurdle with an Evan Williams-trained improving hurdler expected to take plenty of beating.
Recommended bets
1.5pts win Mack The Man in Betfair Hurdle at 7/1
1pt win Stolen Silver in Betfair Hurdle at 10/1
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The Betfair Hurdle is the most valuable handicap hurdle contested in Britain and it often goes the way of a well handicapped novice.
Indeed, eight of the last 10 renewals have fallen to youngsters whom the handicapper is yet to fully get to grips with, and three of those winners were trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. He has two live contenders engaged at the five day stage in the form of Stolen Silver and Sir Valentine.
Not So Sleepy holds obvious claims despite of a 17lbs rise following his facile victory in the Grade Three Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot prior to Christmas. Success in this contest would bag connections a £100,000 bonus from the sponsors. However, Hughie Morrison has revealed that his participation is not certain at this stage and could hinge on a Tuesday schooling session.
Oakley was a shade over two lengths behind Not So Sleepy in November and still looks fairly treated off a mark of 139, while Thebannerkingrebel, who was third behind the aforementioned Stolen Silver in the Sky Bet Rossington Main at Haydock, has the right profile for this race and has already gained plenty of experience that will stand him in good stead.
The strong travelling Never Adapt is going the right way and could still have plenty more to come if settling better in her races while Ciel De Neige, who would also carry the green and gold hoops of leading owner JP McManus, is Willie Mullins’ sole representative at the five-day stage. A mark of 135 could underestimate him.
However, prize-money and connections aside, this is merely a handicap hurdle when all is said and done and it’s easy to make a case that MACK THE MAN is the best handicapped horse in the race following his easy success at Sandown in December.
Evan Williams' progressive six-year-old received an 8lbs hike in the weights for his one-and-three-quarter-lengths success. However, that could still underestimate his true level of ability in view of how the form is working out.
The runner-up, Protektorat, is now rated 16lbs higher following a Listed success on New Year's Day and a solid third placed effort in Grade Two company on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. The third placed Song For Someone is now rated 7lbs higher and was only narrowly denied by last season’s Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up Thomas Darby in Listed company at Ascot last time out.
The form of his penultimate outing at Warwick is also extremely solid as the runner-up Lightly Squeeze, who received 6lbs, has subsequently rattled-up a hat-trick of victories and is now rated 137 - seven pounds superior to the selection.
Mack The Man travelled powerfully throughout both of those contests before readily settling matters in a handful of strides. That in itself is indicative of a well handicapped horse and his ability to travel strongly will aid his prospects in this hotly contested handicap.
The smart son of Flemensfirth confirmed his ability to handle quicker ground at Warwick and he will sneak into this contest at the foot of the weights, which is clearly no negative as six of the last 10 winners were rated in the 130s.
Connections elected to sidestep Grade Two company at Haydock in favour of a tilt at this valuable prize and Evan Williams, who recently celebrated his 1000th winner as a trainer, is enjoying a fantastic season. He has his string in fine form at present.
I am also drawn to the profile of the STOLEN SILVER and have to include him in the staking plan. He beat potentially smart rivals in the form of Edwardstone and Thebannerkingrebel at Haydock in what looked a good renewal of the race.
The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained novice is rated 2lbs higher than the last two winners (both rated 141) of this race and like Kalashnikov and Al Dancer before him could easily develop into a leading Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle contender if successful on Saturday.
It’s easy to argue that the grey has already achieved more than that pair had at this stage of their careers on account of his Grade Two success and the manner in which he stayed on powerfully at Haydock suggests he will suited by the demands of a strongly run, big-field, handicap.
The improving six-year-old clocked an identical time to stablemate Ballyandy at Haydock and his previous outing at Cheltenham, when attempting to concede 6lbs to Chantry House, also looks very strong novice form.
Stolen Silver was forced to make the running at Cheltenham and Sam Twiston-Davies set a slow tempo for much of the race which, in hindsight, wouldn’t have seen his mount to best effect. The form of that race looks sound as the fourth placed Pileon has won both of his subsequent starts and the winner is now a general 10/1 chance for the Cheltenham Festival opener.
Twiston-Davies was quick to nominate this race a likely target when interviewed at Haydock and, given his recent dominance in the race, he is well aware of what is required to plunder this valuable prize.
Posted at 1500 GMT on 03/02/2020
