A busy Saturday for our tipster with five bets in total at Newbury and Warwick including Nube Negra in the Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices' Chase.
Recommended bets
1pt win Sastruga in 1.30 Warwick at 11/4
1pt win Vive Le Roi in 1.50 Newbury at 8/1
3pts win Nube Negra in 2.05 Warwick at 13/8
1pt win Present Value in 4.10 Newbury at 9/2
1pt win Brief Ambition in 4.45 Newbury at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It's fair to say that SASTRUGA wasn't given a hard time when chasing home a well handicapped rival at Uttoxeter in December and Henry Oliver’s charge could easily be well treated off a mark of 112 in the Cheltenham Preview Here Thursday 5th March Handicap Hurdle at Warwick.
Lightly-raced for his age, the last run rates a career best effort by quite some way and he may have given the winner something to think about had he jumped with any degree of fluency whatsoever.
I’m sure that Sastruga will have undergone some intensive schooling since his trip to the midlands and he may also jump better out of this less testing ground. The penny seemed to drop in the closing stages of that contest and he hit the line full of running, which suggested he had plenty left in the tank.
Jeremiah McGrath maintains his association with the seven-year-old and another big step forwards seems likely.
We can all be guilty of overlooking those towards the head of the weights in favour of potentially well-handicapped up-and-coming rivals. However, VIVE LE ROI is thoroughly consistent at this level and he holds sound claims in the Betfair Bet In-Play Handicap Hurdle.
Tony Carroll’s likeable nine-year-old was only a neck behind current favourite One For The Team when placing third over this course and distance in November, with the reopposing Dolphin Square back in fourth. Vive Le Roi will be 3lbs better off with the former and 6lbs better off with the latter on Saturday yet he’s behind both of those rivals in the betting.
The experienced son of Robin Des Pres dropped back in trip to finish second in the Listed Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last time out and he was successful over this course-and-distance on his only other visit to Newbury, albeit off a 9lbs lower mark.
The drying ground and presence of regular jockey Harry Bannister are further elements in Vive Le Roi’s favour and Tony Carrol has enjoyed plenty of success on the flat in recent weeks. Another bold bid seems likely.
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The Grade Two Kingmaker Novices’ Chase is the main event at Warwick and I am particularly looking forward to seeing NUBE NEGRA, who could easily make his presence felt in even higher company this spring.
Dan Skelton’s six-year-old was ultimately frustrating over hurdles but has quickly developed into an above-average novice chaser and is already rated 16lbs higher in this sphere. Indeed, the fleet-footed six-year-old is electric at his obstacles and brings Grade One form to the table having chased home Esprit Du Large in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December.
Nube Negra bolted up over this course-and-distance on his chasing debut in October before defeating a brace of subsequent scorers at Fakenham four weeks later. He jumped like an old hand and sprinted clear on both of those occasions and the drying ground at Warwick will very much play to his strengths.
Torpillo was two places behind Nube Negra at Sandown while Precious Cargo and Moonlighter are closely matched on their Newbury form. However, Dan Skelton’s representative is the highest-rated runner in the field and he can take this en-route to bigger things.
The penultimate contest at Newbury is a three mile novice chase and I am keen to be with PRESENT VALUE for the in-form partnership of Evan Williams and Adam Wedge.
The lightly-raced son of Gold Well, who will carry the readily recognisable blue and pink silks of staunch stable patrons Mr and Mrs William Rucker, has applied himself well in two starts over fences in spite of being beaten at relatively short odds. Both of those outings came in slowly run contests over middle distance trips and this step up to three miles looks sure to suit given that he is closely related to Stayers' Hurdle hero Paisley Park.
Present Value chased home subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner Al Dancer on his racecourse debut at Ffos Las last season and he looked potentially above average when beating a decent field at Chepstow next time out. Clearly connections were keen to get their youngster over fences and I’m sure that they would be pretty disappointed if he didn’t prove better than this mark of 128 in time.
The drying ground could be sighted as a cause for concern given that only one of his five career outings to date have been on a surface with good in the description. However, Evan Williams knew the conditions when deciding to declare and I am sure that he wouldn’t hesitate in pulling the six-year-old out if he deemed it was unsuitable.
Present Value jumped like a cat at both Aintree and Exeter an receives plenty of weight from those towards the head of the betting. He'll go well here.
The concluding contest at Newbury is a warm looking bumper and I am minded to side with the Fergal O'Brien trained BRIEF AMBITION, who was fourth to Cheltenham Festival bound Israel Champ in a Listed contest at Prestbury Park in November.
The promising son of Yeats defeated a subsequent easy scorer on his rules debut at Southwell after he'd landed a good ground point-to-point at Bellurgan Park at the third time of asking. He found only Glynn, who made an impressive hurdling debut at Doncaster two weeks ago, too good at Portrush last March.
Brief Ambition bumped into some useful rivals in the Cotswolds and he was the only horse that managed to make up ground from the rear of the field, which was no easy task given the testing conditions.
The drying ground at Newbury will be to his liking and O'Brien, who is renowned for his prowess with bumper horses, has his sting firing on all cylinders at present.
Posted at 1630 GMT on 07/02/20
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