Stage is set for major juvenile clashes in Fillies' Mile and Dewhurst Stakes
By Matt Brocklebank
15:59 · MON October 07, 2024
Matt Brocklebank takes a look at the entries for this week's big juvenile prizes at Newmarket - Friday's bet365 Fillies' Mile and the Darley Dewhurst Stakes on Saturday.
Charlie Appleby may have supplemented Shadow Of Light into the Dewhurst – more on that development below – but star filly Desert Flower goes it alone for the boys in blue against a deep squad from Ballydoyle in Friday’s bet365 Fillies’ Mile.
The daughter of Night Of Thunder is bred to be smart, being out of four-time Group 2 winner Promising Run who went off a 6/1 chance for this event when seventh behind Minding in 2015. Desert Flower has made three appearances on track and doesn’t know the meaning of defeat at this stage, pulling off a July Course double in the summer before taking the step up to Group 2 level in her stride in Doncaster’s May Hill Stakes.
She’d missed a beat (or two) in her first couple of starts but has evidently matured in that regard as she was away well on Town Moor before settling in fourth, not far off the lead. She led entering the eighth and final furlong, coping well with her first go at the trip, and seemed to prick her ears close home which is rarely a bad sign.
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With a length and a half to spare over the Aidan O’Brien-trained Listed winner January at the line (and that one’s stablemate Ecstatic further in arrears back in fifth), she looks well set to be tested at the highest level and, on the face of it, could have a fair bit more improvement in the locker.
Who leads the way for O’Brien? Probably not the aforementioned January but it might not become completely clear until jockey bookings are finalised. Dreamy – in the colours of part-owners Flaxman Stables – has the distinct look of a filly only really doing the minimum of what’s being asked of her, and she could be the one sitting on the most potential.
Curragh commentator Jerry Hannon used the phrase ‘all out’ when Dreamy won a Group 3 last time but I’m not sure he'd quite go that far if he could do a swift re-record, and Timeform’s comment of 'won cosily' looks a lot closer to the way it actually played out.
Her pedigree – she's an American Pharoah out of Yorkshire Oaks winner Tapestry - screams middle distances at you and whatever she achieves at two is likely just scratching the surface of her full capability.
Timeform ratings suggest she’s the Ballydoyle second in command here, and by some way if they all go to post, with Bubbling already rated 108p (compared to Dreamy’s 101p) on account of her ready Rockfel victory just a fortnight ago.
There was a strong suggestion the other week that she’d now done enough for the year and perhaps she’s entered here merely as back-up, but time (declaration time on Wednesday morning, to be precise) will tell.
Ballet Slippers was off the mark in a fillies’ novice at Ascot last month, beating subsequent Haydock winner Music Piece by a length and earning a master figure of 96p, while the imposing Frankel filly Giselle (88p) was second to Bedtime Story at Leopardstown in June and defied a summer layoff to win a Curragh maiden last Saturday. To remark she looks one for 2025 would be something of an understatement. Whirl is also bred for the trip and beyond, but has a mountain to climb on form on the back of her Doncaster maiden success.
Away from the two powerhouse yards we have Tabiti for the Arc-winning team of Ralph Beckett, Rossa Ryan and Juddmonte. She justified good market support with a clear-cut debut win before dropping back to six furlongs in the rescheduled Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury.
Beckett was at pains to stress the move down in trip was simply due to a dearth of suitable options elsewhere, and they just about got away with it, Tabiti’s inherent class getting her out of trouble in the final furlong after it looked like she might be exposed by the sprinting test.
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Going from there to the Fillies’ Mile will be something of a culture shock, on several levels, but while the unblemished record remains intact it’s hard to be overly critical. She’s 12/1 at the time of writing but is rated equal to favourite Desert Flower and is seemingly in danger of being overlooked.
And then there’s Anna Swan for Sir Michael Stoute and Cheveley Park Stud. Looking at her page, you’d imagine she’ll get a mile with no trouble whatsoever but the slightly softer approach and Friday’s Oh So Sharp Stakes over seven must be pretty tempting too, given how much a Group 3 win at two would add to her value.
The Group 1 assignments might just have to wait until next year for her, by which time her legendary trainer will be watching on from the sidelines - or the beach.
Eight horses entered for Saturday’s Darley Dewhurst Stakes at the five-day stage but only two places on offer to anybody thinking of an early each-way wager. And you can’t blame the layers here, Aidan O’Brien once again having something of a stranglehold over a British Group 1 having left in a handful of well-bred colts.
Charlie Appleby doubled his hand on Monday by supplementing the Middle Park winner Shadow Of Light, but it’s Ballydoyle ace The Lion In Winter who heads the betting - and the Timeform ratings too with a master figure of 119p.
That’s a considerable mark however you choose to weigh it up but, with a pedigree for the Classics and after just two racecourse appearances, we’re seemingly dealing with another special talent in Acomb Stakes winner The Lion In Winter.
The Lion In Winter wins well under Ryan Moore
The son of Sea The Stars had produced a striking debut win under Wayne Lordan, the apparent first-string that day Ides Of March only managing third but subsequently winning his maiden and a Curragh Group 3 in the style of an above-average colt himself.
The York form has received several notable boosts since as well, runner-up Wimbledon Hawkeye landing the Royal Lodge and fourth The Waco Kid winning the Tattersalls Stakes.
“A bit of a bruised foot” saw The Lion In Winter skip his initial next target (the Goffs Million) back at the Curragh but he looks every inch a Dewhurst candidate, and a leading one at that. Quite whether the even-money with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair is all that tempting is another matter.
For all that Camille Pissarro being left in raised an eyebrow just a few days on from his Lagardere cruise in France, and Hugo Palmer’s Galileo Gold colt Seagulls Eleven has buildt a consistent and likeable two-year-old profile not too dissimilar to that of his Guineas-winning sire, it’s the Charlie Appleby pair who will surely provide sternest resistance.
Why run both? Strength in numbers is the most obvious answer and Shadow Of Light’s brilliant close relative Earthlight stayed seven furlongs, albeit at three with another winter behind him. This son of Lope De Vega powered through the line en route to beating Whistlejacket by four lengths here last month and it was a bit step up on what had admittedly looked a slightly unlucky run when made to challenge out wide in the Gimcrack.
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“I’d say he’s a Commonwealth Cup horse,” Appleby said in the immediate aftermath of the Middle Park, but that seemed a touch hasty at the time and stumping up the £35,000 to add him into the Dewhurst isn’t the sort of decision one makes lightly.
U S Navy Flag was the last to do the Middle Park-Dewhurst double in 2017 and you’re going way back to the early 80s before that, but there’s nothing like Rowley Mile experience and the chestnut clearly took to the place like a natural.
There has been something of a race-planning switch with Ancient Truth as well, Appleby deciding against a shot at the National Stakes in Ireland the which leaves the son of Dubawi coming here fresh after 91 days off.
That shouldn’t be an issue in principle but he’ll need to pick up where he left off – and more – in order to follow up the Superlative Stakes win. It’s obviously something City Of Troy pulled off 12 months ago, coincidentally skipping the same Curragh Group 1 during the interim, but are we really expecting similar fireworks from Ancient Truth?
He was long-term favourite for this race towards the end of August and now sits third in the market despite remaining in his box. It feels like the tide has turned somewhat and it’s just hoped he definitely lines up on Saturday as the twin-pronged attack from Godolphin on The Lion In Winter could be just what this autumn highlight really needs.
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