St Leger tips: Preview and best antepost value bets for Doncaster Classic

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 138pts profit and he's +46.14pts for the calendar year.
• So far this Flat season his winners have included Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Metier at 6/1, Croupier at 14/1, Roberto Escobarr at 9/2, Austrian Theory at 9/1, Cadillac at 14/1, Equality at 13/2 and Killybegs Warrior at 22/1.

Antepost Value Bet tips: 2023 Flat season

1pt win Continuous in Betfred St Leger at 20/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor) - General 16s also fine

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

I can’t say I’ve been bowled over by the performances of Auguste Rodin or Savethelastdance in the Irish Derby and Irish Oaks this summer, but it’s two more Curragh Classics on the board for Aidan O’Brien and ‘the lads’, and Saturday’s hard-fought success was obviously an important one for the filly, who is now a Group 1 winner over 12 furlongs.

She certainly won’t be going down in trip any time soon, but the key question now is whether she needs an immediate step up to the mile and three-quarters or sticks to a mile and a half for a shot at the Yorkshire Oaks next month and even the Arc de Triomphe, where testing conditions would very much play to her strengths.

While I can see the logic behind Savethelastdance halving in price for the St Leger (10/1 into 5s) on the back of a half-length defeat of Bluestocking, I’m yet to be convinced that race will be her big autumn target so the revised odds are easy enough to overlook.

Win, lose or draw on Saturday, she was highly unlikely to usurp current favourite Gregory, who doesn’t quite bring the strongest form to the Leger table but is unbeaten and still possesses the Timeform ‘p’ after making it 3-3 with a ready defeat of Saint George in the Queen’s Vase at the Royal meeting.

That effort has already worked out well. Ascot runner-up Saint George finished a close third behind Castle Way and Tower Of London in a bunched finish to the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket's July Festival, while third home Chesspiece went two places better in the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton on Friday evening.

Gregory has the opportunity to enhance his claims quite considerably in less than two weeks’ time as he’s reportedly on course to tackle the Group 1 Goodwood Cup over two miles, a race his yard won with a three-year-old Stradivarius in 2017. He could well be odds-on for the Leger if all goes according to plan on the Downs and some punters may be happy enough to take the 5/2 about him and let the Gosdens and Frankie Dettori (final Classic of his career, don’t forget) do the rest.

Gregory isn’t going to be handed the Goodwood Cup on a plate, though, and it’s worth recalling that Stradivarius was beaten in the Doncaster Classic so if he’s an out-and-out stayer then maybe there’ll be something in the line-up that is essentially a little bit quicker.

Stradivarius was third to Capri that year which brings us back to the aforementioned Tower Of London, a full-brother to Capri among other quality stayers.

Tower Of London was an unlucky loser at Newmarket, Ryan Moore dropping his whip late on but already not ideally placed when the slow tempo turned into a mad dash up the final incline.

William Buick was typically alive to the tactical nature of the race and won the day on the Charlie Appleby-trained Castle Way, but I’d expect Tower Of London to beat him easily enough given a truer test of stamina in a trial like the Great Voltigeur.

Tower Of London looks a big threat to the top two in the betting, but he’s not screaming value at me around the 6/1 mark, and I do think O’Brien still has a couple more potential Leger candidates up his sleeve.

The first is Adelaide River – arguably the form horse among the 39 entries – who is evidently going through the gears quite nicely as a three-year-old having improved on everything he’d done previously when beaten a length by Feed The Flame in the Grand Prix de Paris.

He may well form part of the Ballydoyle raiding party heading over to take on King Of Steel in Saturday’s King George, but if he’s not then I’d be inclined to think that he could be being geared towards Doncaster.

Adelaide River is an easy-to-back 12/1 at the time of writing, so I’ll sit tight with him and instead recommend a bet on stablemate CONTINUOUS, who looks another ideal Voltigeur candidate for O’Brien having run well at York already this season when dead-heating for third in the Dante.

Said to have been behind a few of the other O'Brien colts in their spring homework, the son of Heart’s Cry has seemingly been brought along steadily and took in the Prix du Jockey Club over Epsom, when things just didn’t work out for him from the inside stall at Chantilly.

• Click here to back Continuous for the St Leger with Sky Bet

Continuous wasn’t good enough on the day, but it looked a hot renewal of the French Derby, won by the Arc favourite Ace Impact with Feed The Flame only fourth, and he appeared to find it all coming a bit too soon in his development.

Given six weeks off subsequently, Continuous resumed with a staying-on second behind King Of Steel in the King Edward VII at Ascot (replay below), form which could obviously receive an almighty boost at the weekend.

The good to firm going was probably quick enough for him there, too, and it was a run that strongly suggested he’ll carry on improving granted more of a stamina test.

I’d love to see Continuous back at York for the Group 2 at the Ebor Festival, but he may get another outing before then as he’s entered in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes at Naas on Monday August 7, a race that could also feature yet another possible O’Brien St Leger horse in the lightly-raced Espionage.

Elsewhere, it’s still quite early days for King Edward VII third Artistic Star and his trainer Ralph Beckett has been hinting all season that he’s a long-term project who will stay further in time, while a back-to-form Military Order wouldn’t be without a chance on his Lingfield Derby Trial defeat of Waipiro, but quite where we stand with him at the moment is a bit of a guessing game.

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Published at 1500 BST on 23/07/23

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