St Leger horse-by-horse preview: Guide to the potential runners at Doncaster

Alexandroupolis (Aidan O’Brien) - Sky Bet: 25/1

One-time Derby contender, having made quite the impression when powering home in a Galway maiden on his debut 12 months ago. That effort saw him sent off 4/5 favourite on his seasonal return in the Group 3 Ballysax at Leopardstown in April but he was well held there by White Birch and didn’t show a whole lot more in pure form terms when sixth of seven on his return from a 144-day break last month. Bred to enjoy this sort of trip and there’s clearly some talent there once the penny drops, but far too many questions to answer at the moment.

Arrest (John and Thady Gosden) - 8/1

Strapping son of Frankel with a considerable knee-action and, having gone close in a French Group 1 at the back-end of last season, returned with a six and a half length win in the Chester Vase in May (soft). Went off 4/1 fav in Frankie's final Derby but the unconventional track and quick ground scuppered those plans and it was good to firm again when struggling to keep tabs on King Of Steel and Continuous in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot the following month. Back from a break with straightforward win back on easy ground at Newbury last month but Gosden senior has hinted the Prix Chaudenay (1m7f) over Arc weekend could be his next port of call and he looks a proper stayer in the making.

Chesspiece (Simon and Ed Crisford) - 10/1

Has ground to make up with Gregory and Desert Hero in light of his defeats to those two at Royal Ascot and Goodwood respectively, but he was far from disgraced on either occasion and picked up a nice prize at Hamilton in between. Son of Nathaniel who shapes like he’ll relish this trip in time, despite not quite seeing it out as well as the winner on fast ground at Ascot, and rain in the forecast would appear to be good news for connections too.

Continuous (Aidan O’Brien) - 3/1

Had largely been known as the horse who won the race in which Christophe Soumillon elbowed Rossa Ryan out of the saddle at Saint-Cloud last September but he’s gradually found his feet as a three-year-old this year and overcame a 61-day layoff to win the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur. He came from the back to make some smart horses look slow that day and the obvious fear now is will his stamina last out another couple of furlongs? That’s the big question, especially with rain around, but he has a stout pedigree and looked 'Classic ready' last time out at York.

Denmark (Aidan O'Brien) - 40/1

Seemed a nice long-term prospect when winning Naas maiden first time out last August but he hasn't quote come up to scratch this season and was beaten for the fourth time since that debut victory when third in a Haydock handicap from a mark of 102 last weekend. Seems a longshot to even turn up here given Ballydoyle strength elsewhere in the race.

Desert Hero (William Haggas) - 5/1

Wandered around and hung markedly when winning a Redcar novice on heavy ground last October but he’s looked pretty straightforward this time around, building on a promising effort in the London Gold Cup to win the King George V Handicap from a difficult position at Royal Ascot, and following up in the Gordon Stakes (from Chesspiece) at Goodwood. Clearly has a serious will to win and no real surprise if he saw this longer trip out well but he’s going to need to take another step forward to beat Gregory and Continuous.

Gregory (John and Thady Gosden) - 9/4

Unraced at two but made big strides in a short space of time with wins at Haydock and Goodwood in the spring before justifying even-money favouritism under Dettori for the first time in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Was immediately made favourite for this on the back of it and although the best part of five lengths behind Continuous in the Voltigeur at York, that did have the looks of a prep run in all honesty. Going back up in distance on an easier surface is bound to play more to his strengths and he looks to hold very sound claims.

Middle Earth (John and Thady Gosden) - 6/1

Another unraced juvenile who has gone through the grades for the Gosdens this year. Still looked a bit rough around the edges when opening his account in a Newmarket novice in July, but stepped up again to win the Sky Bet Melrose at York last month (replay below). Only defied a mark of 93 that day so clearly has a lot more on his plate to win at Group 1 level but his sadly ill-fated sire (Roaring Lion) looks to have put plenty of that fighting spirit into his progeny and it could be dangerous to assume this colt now got to somewhere near his peak.

Tower Of London (Aidan O’Brien) - 10/1

Mile maiden winner on debut at two and he has appreciated the step up to middle-distances this term, getting up to land a Listed race at Leopardstown before really announcing himself with a wide-margin handicap success at Down Royal (1m5f). Sent off odds-on for the Bahrain Trophy following heavy support on the day but got a bit of a nightmare trip and Ryan Moore dropping the whip didn’t help either, ultimately going down by a head after a late rally. Subsequent two-month layoff would be a concern if looking to side with him before the final declarations as he’s one of four for the yard.

VERDICT

Having already got Continuous on side at 20/1 prior to his Great Voltigeur win at York, it's unlikely I'll be striking another bet in this year's St Leger but certainly couldn't put anyone off having a saver on Gregory at this point as I'd have it firmly between the pair of them and surely Frankie Dettori's final mount is going to go off an extremely skinny price at the weekend.

It's clearly not just the 'Frankie factor' which could see this colt's price come under more pressure as he'd looked seriously progressive when rounding out a hat-trick of wins in the Queen's Vase, and I more than suspect he may have needed the run at York.

Shouldering a 3lb penalty and running on the quickest ground he'd experienced in his life, Gregory ran a perfectly pleasing trial in the Voltigeur and he's definitely going to be suited by the return to a mile and six on Saturday.

Outside of the big two, Chesspiece could be a shade over-priced as he just looked a bit raw when third to the favourite in the Queen's Vase. A subsequent Listed win and narrow defeat to Desert Hero at Goodwood may just have put a few more hairs on his chest and he's bred to excel over this sort of distance, particularly if there's rain around.

Published at 1400 BST on 11/09/23

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