Recommended bets: Imperial Cup
2pts win Golden Spear at 9/2 - not a vintage renewal; favourite can justify his position
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Novices have a fantastic recent record in the Matchbook Imperial Cup having won eight of the last 10 renewals but this year's entry looks rather short of obvious candidates.
While this preview is by no means done from a wholly stats based angle (that comes later in the week), I do always look at the profiles of winners from recent years to see if there is a pattern.
The Tony Martin trained favourite Golden Spear first ran over hurdles in 2014 but he has still only had eight career runs so remains completely unexposed.
He was put up on these pages for the Wessex Youth Trust Handicap Hurdle earlier in the season and ended up being sent off as the 4/1 favourite, finishing third behind Brain Power having been given plenty to do.
He's since run well in one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the season in Ireland and his chance is very obvious. He is rated 6lb higher than at Ascot but still looks feasibly treated and the standout price of 9/2 with Sky Bet is a fair one.
He is closely matched with stablemate Tudor City on their Leopardstown running but Tudor City's form figures of 2-2-2 tell their own story.
No recent winner has been rated higher than 135 nor carried more than 10-13 but the latter stat looks irrelevant in this year's renewal with only seven runners at 10-13 or below.
It still won't be an easy task for the 140-rated Air Force One under top-weight though (last year's top-weight was rated 149). He is progressive and his form is working out well and it's interesting that connections have bypassed the EBF Final (which was mentioned as a target) in favour of a tilt at this race and the bonus.
Fixe Le Kap may only be receiving 2lbs but the handicapper has given him a real chance as he's 4lb lower than when eighth in the Fred Winter and looks handily treated on a couple of pieces of form but the layers haven't taken many chances at a general 8/1 given he hasn't been sighted in almost 12 months.
London Prize is a decent fit on the stats and he wouldn't be the first winner of this race to have warmed up with a spin on the Flat. He hadn't been asked a question when falling at Musselburgh on his handicap debut when well supported but he missed a run at Newbury on Saturday and has to prove himself on soft ground.
He has less to prove than Max Do Brazil who represents the Pipe stable that used to be synonymous with this race. The five-year-old failed to justify market support on his British bow but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him leave that form behind.
At fancy prices, last year's second and third Solstice Star and Spice Fair have minor claims but a stablemate of the 2016 fourth Affaire d'Honneur is more interesting.
Bigmartre flopped at Cheltenham in a race won by William H Bonney but his yard were struggling for form at the time (and have had no runner in the last fortnight and have no entries until Friday) and he won well enough at Kempton prior to that.
He had been on track to run in the Betfair Hurdle, a race which has provided the last two winners of this contest but representatives from Newbury are thin on the ground this year.
Kayf Blanco was fifth behind Ballyandy and has some Sandown form to his name; he could easily get involved but it will be surprising if there's not something in this field better treated even though this doesn't appear to be a vintage renewal.
There's little doubt that one of those runners is Golden Spear and he can justify favouritism and set up a tilt at the £50,000 bonus at Cheltenham on Friday.
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