Top commentator Simon Holt previews the second day from Glorious Goodwood, the Qatar Festival, including the Sussex Stakes.
Recommended bets:
2pts win Churchill in 3.35 Goodwood at best morning price
1pt win Star Rider in 1.50 Goodwood at best morning price
1pt win Secret Advisor in 2.25 Goodwood at best morning price
Last year's Qatar Sussex Stakes was dominated by three-year-olds, continuing a strong trend in the past decade, and a member of the younger generation may again prove just too hot to handle in Wednesday's renewal at Goodwood where the dual Guineas winner CHURCHILL bids to redeem his reputation.
A measure of how Aidan O'Brien's colt ran below form against Barney Roy in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot is the fact he finished well behind his stable-companion Lancaster Bomber who he had beaten in five previous meetings.
So, for whatever reason, Churchill was not at his best that day and, of course, he had beaten Barney Roy, an excellent second to Ulysses in the Eclipse Stakes since Ascot, earlier in the season in the 2000 Guineas.
It's possible that the son of Galileo had the run of things at Newmarket, whereas Barney Roy took a bad step approaching the final furlong, but if there is little between the two colts on that form, then it suggests Churchill could be a match for an older horse in receipt of the weight-for-age allowance.
The obvious danger is last year's third Ribchester who has done little wrong in the 12 months since, winning the Prix Jacques Le Marois (from Vadamos) at Deauville, chasing home Minding in the Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day and winning both the Lockinge and the Queen Anne Stakes this season.
In beating Mutakayyef on the latter occasion, I felt Richard Fahey's high-class miler was just a little workmanlike in justification of short-priced favouritism, again showing a tendency to hang under pressure. But it's possible he was left in front too far from home when his pacemaker Toscanini, deployed again here, dropped away.
It really does look a toss-up between the two but, if Churchill can be forgiven his Ascot flop, then perhaps he will just have the edge in what could be another memorable 'Duel on the Downs'.
Of course, Lancaster Bomber may suddenly have improved as his trainer's horses are quite capable of doing through the season (eg, Spirit Of Valor, Roly Poly) so that, while clearly inferior to the selection up until the Royal meeting, it might be unwise to write him off completely.
Meanwhile, on a line through Vadamos who beat him into third place in last season's Prix du Moulin, the French challenger Zelzal appears to have something to find with Ribchester though Jean-Claude Rouget's four-year-old made an eye-catching reappearance behind stable-mate Taareef at Chantilly in June when set plenty to do.
It will be surprising if any of the other runners can get involved.
Earlier, despite a rise in the weights, STAR RIDER could well repeat last year's victory in the Matchbook Betting Exchange Goodwood Handicap.
Hughie Morrison's tough mare is now 9lb higher in the ratings since beating Percy Veer (patchy form since and now returning from a lay-off) by a comfortable two lengths 12 months ago but was a good winner at Newmarket later in the season (taking the same race for the second year running despite a weights rise) and shaped well when sixth behind Thomas Hobson in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June.
The extreme distance of this race makes it something of a specialists race and Adam Kirby's mount seems bound to make another bold attempt.
Morrison boasts a decent hand here as Aurora Gray has progressed nicely in recent starts and seems to stay well while Taws, runner-up behind Sands Of Fortune in 2015 and the front-running Arthur Mc Bride, a winner over two miles here last October, are others likely to run well.
Godolphin launch a four-pronged attack on the Better Odds With Matchbook Exchange Handicap but I much prefer William Buick's mount SECRET ADVISOR.
This son of Dubawi, unraced last season, is progressing very nicely and came from way off the pace to take third behind Stradivarius in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot last time.
Secret Advisor was taking a big step up in distance that day after solid efforts between a mile and a mile-and-a-quarter and may have been a shade cautiously ridden.
Out of a Galileo mare, middle distances and a strong gallop will suit this likeable colt best and, with pace likely to be provided by Sofias Rock and Amlad, his challenge may prove hard to resist in the closing stages.
Posted at 1120 BST on 01/08/17.
