Simon Holt best bets for Saturday's action

Horse Racing

Sat May 05, 2018 · 7y ago

Simon Holt expects Aidan O'Brien to win the QIPCO 2000 Guineas - but not with the colt who currently heads the market.

Recommended bets: Simon Holt

2pts win Alpha Delphine 2.20 Newmarket at 5/1

2pts win Saxon Warrior 3.35 Newmarket at 5/1

ALTHOUGH apparently Aidan O'Brien's second-string runner, SAXON WARRIOR is still fancied to prove himself one of the best colts of his generation in Satruday's Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Unbeaten in three starts as a two-year-old, the son of Deep Impact was hugely impressive, I thought, when battling back to beat Roaring Lion in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October on the strength of which he appeared to be Ballydoyle's most obvious contender for the colts classics in 2018.

The form of that victory is now sending out mixed messages with the runner-up well beaten behind Masar on his reappearance in the Craven Stakes and third-placed The Pentagon also well beaten on his reappearance.

However, it is interesting that Roaring Lion still takes his chance here and the form of the Doncaster fourth Verbal Dexterity looked very strong beforehand.

It's possible Saxon Warrior (the mount of Donnacha O'Brien) has not been as impressive at home recently compared to his stable-companion Gustav Klimt (Seamie Heffernan) who overcame a lengthy absence since winning the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last July when beating three others in the Leopardstown Guineas Trial last month.

That form looks a bit questionable as does the quality of his Newmarket win, though the son of Galileo did well to overcome a few traffic problems before beating Guineas outsider Nebo by a head. Overall, he looks much worse value than Saxon Warrior on form.

The well-bred Elarqam, the result of a dream union between the Guineas winners Frankel and Attraction, is very hard to assess on his course (7f) defeat of Tip Two Win last September and earlier debut win at York.

Mark Johnston's colt is certainly made for this test but probably needs to improve plenty from those two victories.

Meanwhile, Masar's nine-length Craven romp was something of a revelation, though he certainly enjoyed the run of the race.

The Godolphin colt, a particularly good mover, ran well enough behind 1000 Guineas favourite Happily in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over Arc weekend at Chantilly last October and can probably be forgiven subsequent defeats at the Breeders Cup (checked three furlongs out) and at Meydan on dirt.

If his Craven win can be believed, he has a massive chance but it is unlikely he will enjoy such an easy time on the front end this time.

On one piece of form, Expert Eye would be the one to beat as he was hugely impressive when slamming Zaman (a winner in Dubai since) and subsequent Feilden Stakes winner Mildenberger (James Garfield fourth) in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last August.

The son of Acclamation got very worked up before finishing last in the Dewhurst next time (finished lame) and then pulled hard again when beaten by James Garfield on his reappearance in the Greenham at Newbury (Hey Gaman third), Raid fourth).

It is hard to know what to make of Expert Eye now, but he must learn to settle.

Earlier, ALPHA DELPHINI can show the benefit of his reappearance second at Musselburgh in the Group Three Longholes Palace House Stakes.

On heavy ground, Brian Smart's seven-year-old couldn't quite hold off Kylang Rock that day but, as was the case last year when he finished eighth to Marsha in this race before finishing a close third to Priceless in the Temple Stakes at Haydock, he could prove at his best with the run under his belt. The more the ground dries, the better.

Alpha Delphini is one of those sprinters who has reached a higher level of form with age, and he was in fine form last autumn winning at Beverley and Musselburgh, on each occasion having the re-opposing Ornate behind him.

The obvious favourite is Havana Grey, a smart two-year-old last season when beating this week's Ascot winner Invincible Army in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood amongst a string of consistent efforts.

However, Karl Burke's colt must prove he has trained on plus life can be difficult for three-year-old sprinters especially in the early part of the season.

Mabs Cross, a winner four times on the bounce last term, is the other leading contender after going under by a neck in a listed race at Bath recently, though this does demand more.

Preview posted 0950 04/05/2018