Ebor Festival tips: Simon Holt previews day two at York

Recommended bets: Simon Holt at York

2pts win Madeline in 2.25 York at best morning price

2pts win Chelsea Lad in 3.00 York at best morning price

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York has been the scene of a few racing shocks over the years, none more infamous than when Roberto beat the great Brigadier Gerard back in the seventies.

More recently, Arabian Queen lowered the colours of Golden Horn, and there was another big turn-up when Tapestry beat 5-1 on favourite Taghrooda in the 2014 Darley Yorkshire Oaks; the surprise will be on a similar scale if the dual Oaks and King George winner ENABLE is beaten in Thursday's renewal.

This incredibly talented daughter of Nathaniel is being aimed at the Arc, for which she is the clear market leader, by trainer John Gosden and, with plenty in hand on official ratings, this ought to be a formality en route to Chantilly.

At Ascot last time, Enable was impossible to beat in receipt of a stone in age and sex allowances and, while she benefits from just a 9lb concession from older members of her own sex here, it is hard to see her beaten should she remain in top form.

However, there is that 'York Factor', and a definite concern could be the lack of pace amongst the six-runner line-up.

While no fan of pacemakers, Enable might well have benefitted from a friendly lead here, especially as none of her rivals are particularly renowned for front-running. Who knows, one of them might grasp the nettle and try to steal a march, but one of the favourite's great assets is her stamina at the trip and a sprint down the home straight might not be so ideal.

That wouldn't suit her stable-companion Coronet either as the Ribblesdale Stakes winner, subsequently fourth to Enable in the Irish Oaks, tends to pass horses from well off the pace.

Second favourite Nezwaah, winner of the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes over a mile-and-a-quarter at The Curragh in early July, is not to be underestimated and, given this is her first try at this longer trip, perhaps she would be less inconvenienced by a slow gallop.

So too Queen's Trust who, while a bit disappointing on soft ground at Goodwood last time, had previously run an eye-catching fourth behind Highland Reel over a fast-going ten furlongs at Royal Ascot.

It could be a fascinating race to watch, but it's no bet for me.

Earlier, MADELINE is fancied to take the Group Two Sky Bet Lowther Stakes.

Since being beaten on her debut, this daughter of Dubawi appears to have progressed with every start, landing a maiden at Goodwood in May, finishing fifth in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and, latterly, taking the listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury last month by a decisive two-and-a-quarter lengths from the re-opposing Natural.

Ground conditions seem to come alike to Roger Varian's filly and she probably ran better than it first appeared at the Royal meeting given that she raced stands side whereas the first two home, Different League and Alpha Centauri, had the race to themselves on the opposite side of the course.

Madeline finished in front of the two Aidan O'Brien fillies, Actress (the mount of Ryan Moore here) and Clemmie, that day and both have amply boosted the form since.

Ascot form is also represented by Wesley Ward's Happy Like A Fool who, despite going off a shade of odds-on before the Queen Mary Stakes, was no match for the impressive winner Heartache.

With the winner being beaten in France next time, Frankie Dettori's mount may have to find a bit of improvement here over an extra furlong.

That last remark may also apply to the unbeaten Special Purpose, up in distance and class after victories at Lingfield and Beverley, while the Mark Johnston-trained Threading also steps up after a six-length demolition of her rivals over six furlongs in soft ground at Goodwood first time out.

She might not have beaten much that day, but her trainer boasts several good juveniles this season and, if she is up with the best of them as her entry here suggests, then Threading could well be the biggest danger to the selection.

In the always competitive Clipper Logistics Handicap, CHELSEA LAD is given another chance after a slightly under-whelming third at Windsor last time.

Sent off favourite that day and fitted with a hood for the first time, Martyn Meade's well-regarded gelding never really landed a blow but now returns to the scene of his excellent second behind subsequent Sussex Stakes winner Here Comes When in May.

While no match for the winner that day, Chelsea Lad finished just ahead of Victory Bond, fourth in a Group Two here next time, and can now meet that rival on 5lb better terms in the hands of Andrea Atzeni.

With the hood left off this time, it seems a bit early to write him off.

El Hayem, a typical Sir Michael Stoute-trained improver, could be the chief threat after his Sandown victory in July for which he went up just 4lb. Fast ground seems to suit him best.