Simon Holt's free horse racing tips for Saturday January 6; Final National choice

Horse Racing

Sat January 06, 2018 · 7y ago

Simon Holt previews Saturday's action at Cheptow and Sandown and has two against the field in the Coral Welsh National.

Saturday's re-arranged Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow is bound to provide its usual searching test and, while the race appears to lack a horse of the class of last year's winner Native River this time, I will stick to my original assertion that FINAL NUDGE could be well suited to the gruelling task.

A decent staying novice hurdler, David Dennis' gelding goes very well on deep ground and made a solid reappearance in the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton in November when beaten a head by the Paul Nicholls-trained Present Man.

The three miles and a furlong on a flat track that day might not have been ideal for Final Nudge who, last March, was probably travelling a bit better than any of his rivals when falling at the fourth last in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, a race fought out by Chase The Spud (now 13lb worse off) and Mysteree (same terms).

At the weights Mysteree, pulled out of a race at Cheltenham before Christmas, could again be the one to beat especially as Michael Scudamore's dour stayer (earlier successful in the Eider at Newcastle) has won first time out for the past three seasons.

His trainer, who won this race with Monbeg Dude in 2012 seems confident of a good run and, at the time of writing, Mysteree just headed the market and looks worth a saver.

Meanwhile, Chase The Spud reappeared to win at Haydock (up 9lb) from subsequent scorer Robinsfirth, and the form of Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase is represented by Beware The Bear (carrying a 4lb penalty) and Bishops Road.

The former looks a progressive stayer while the latter (well beaten in this last year) can run off the same mark as when routing his rivals at Haydock in February 2016. Bishops Road's stable-companion Alfie Spinner, who missed the cut in the original field, gets a run this time having chased home Wild West Wind (4lb penalty) in the Welsh National Trial in early December and could again run well in a race in which trainers Kerry Lee and her father Richard boast a formidable record.

Top weight Vicente, second to Perfect Candidate at Cheltenham on his reappearance, is a perfect type for Nationals as his back-to-back victories in the Scottish version prove, though he could finish only sixth in this softer ground test 12 months ago finishing some way behind the runner-up Raz De Maree.

The latter runs off a similar mark this time and an outing over hurdles at Southwell looked like decent preparation for a repeat attempt with nothing of Native River's capabilities in the line-up. Although now 13-years-old and pint-sized, Gavin Cromwell's out-and-out stayer is another who cannot be dismissed.

Others not to be ruled out should include 2014 winner Emperor's Choice, who slogged back to winning form at Haydock last week, and another race specialist Firebird Flyer, second to dual winner Mountainous in 2015.

Meanwhile, the big spectacle at Sandown will be the 32Red Veterans Handicap Chase Final in which last year's first three - Pete The Feat, Theatrical Star and Loose Chips - all re-oppose along with Gas Line Boy fourth and Cloudy Too fifth. All are up in the handicap to a greater or lesser degree now except for Cloudy Too who is down 10lb for being beaten 14 lengths.

Like the evergreen Pete The Feat, who won again here in early December, Benbens is another that comes into the race with good course-winning form having landed the London National on Tingle Creek day, a race in which my selection that day HOUBLON DES OBEAUX was beaten about eight lengths into sixth having become outpaced on the good-to-soft ground towards the end of the back straight.

A 3lb pull at the weights shouldn't be enough to turn the tables but the likely testing ground here will be much more up 'Houblon's' alley and it was only a year ago that he finished third to Native River off a 10lb higher mark in the Welsh Grand National. Trainer Venetia Williams's horses often strike form at this time of year when the mud is flying.

At Wincanton, EDVARDO could be thrown in at the weights in the closing Smarkets Handicap Hurdle.

Formerly trained in Ireland where he won twice in heavy ground at around this distance of two miles and five furlongs, the eight-year-old appeared to show improved form on his first run for Richard Woollacott at Exeter (2m1f) in November when going down by three-quarters of a length to Padleyourowncanoe. With the latter up 17lb in the ratings now having followed up at Taunton, Edvardo looks well treated off just a 4lb higher mark towards the bottom of the weights. Moreover, Norse Light, who finished third at Exeter, went onto win over fences at Huntingdon next time.