Free horse racing betting preview and tips from Simon Holt

Horse Racing

Sat October 14, 2017 · 7y ago

After a winner on Friday, don't miss Simon Holt's take on Saturday's feature action including the Betfred Cesarewitch at Newmarket.

Following the shock outcome of the Cambridgeshire, the first leg of the 'Autumn Double' two weeks ago when the first three places were filled by horses priced at 50/1, 100/1 and 50/1, perhaps it would be sensible to give the second leg, Saturday's Betfred Cesarewitch, a wide berth.

However, despite all the imponderables, your unfazed correspondent will have a crack with this column's old ally LONDON PRIZE, who has done nothing but improve over the past 12 months and has a most likeable attitude.

Ian Williams' gelding began to develop this time last year, winning consecutive handicaps at Newbury and Nottingham before showing good form over hurdles to take the Imperial Cup at Sandown in March.

After finding speedier tests at Ayr and Haydock less suitable on his next two starts, London Prize returned to the Flat to land a two-mile handicap at Goodwood by six lengths under Jame Doyle and then followed up in the Northumberland Plate consolation race at Newcastle in early July.

Overall, the six-year-old was holding his form remarkably well but has been given a break since and, with Doyle back in the saddle, it is easy to imagine that the shrewd Williams has had this race earmarked for some time. A high, wide draw might not be ideal in most renewals (although Sweet selection won from stall 23 last year) but, on the other hand, the stands' side seemed to offer an advantage in one or two races yesterday and London Prize could be in the right place to tack across.

The same trainer also runs in-form Byron Flyer who has endured four near-misses in his latest outings but, unfortunately, like many a consistent horse has been slowly rising up the weights without winning.

In terms of handicapping, John Constable could be thrown-in as his Flat rating is some 68lb below his jumps mark when the difference in the two codes is normally reckoned to be around 40lb.

However, despite making great strides over hurdles in the spring, this former Aidan O'Brien inmate hasn't run in a Flat race since 2014 and, on that basis, looks short enough at the head of the market.

Who Dares Wins, successful in the Cesarewitch trial in good style, and Time To Study, who narrowly beat Byron Flyer at Doncaster, are both leading contenders albeit under 4lb penalties but one who, like the selection, will go to post fresher than most is the promising Endless Acres, off the course since giving hapless chase to Thomas Hobson (Who Dares Wins third) in the Ascot Stakes back in June.

Like London Prize, he has probably been targeted at this race.

All eyes at Newmarket are bound to be trained on Expert Eye in the Group One Darley Dewhurst Stakes after the colt's hugely impressive performance when taking the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood in early August by four-and-a-half lengths.

Fourth-placed James Garfield (Mill Reef) and the fifth Seahenge (Champagne Stakes at Doncaster) have boosted that form since and, while they may be better horses now, there was no mistaking the winner's superiority that day.

At odds-on, nobody is going to get rich backing Expert Eye but he is hard to oppose even allowing for the likely improvement in Emaraaty, the beautifully-bred (Dubawi out of Zee Zee Top) John Gosden-trained colt who strolled to victory in a novice stakes at Newbury on his second start, and the continued development of Middle Park winner US Navy Flag, who was a surprise winner of the Middle Park Stakes on his ninth appearance of a busy juvenile campaign.

For another selection, the Coral Sprint Trophy at York could deliver better value and MR LUPTON, a course and distance winner last season, should run really well especially as the course seems to be drying out.

Richard Fahey's useful sprinter seems well suited by big fields and, while without a win since the spring, has been set some difficult tasks since in races like the July Cup and Haydock's Sprint Cup.

Mr Lupton looks well-handicapped

However, on ground that would probably have been too heavy for him, Mr Lupton signalled a possible return to winning form at Haydock last time, finishing fourth to Donjuan Triumphant back in handicap company and, dropped 3lb since to a mark below his rating when successful at Newmarket (good to firm) in the spring, he looks to have been given every chance.

In addition, the booking of promising claimer Sebastian Woods, who reduces his weight by another 7lb, makes him potentially thrown-in on anything like his best form.