Top commentator Simon Holt previews the opening day of Aintree's Grand National Festival and he expects Cue Card to bowl them over.
Recommended bets
2pts win Cue Card in 2.50 Aintree at best morning price
2pts win Astre De La Cour in 4.40 Aintree at best morning price (non-runner)
History could repeat itself at Aintree on Thursday when CUE CARD bids to bounce back from a fall at the third last fence in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as he did last year when running away with the Betway Bowl Chase.
Compared to March 2016, Colin Tizzard's much-loved chaser was not travelling as well when again coming to grief at his bogey fence last month but the fact he didn't have to battle home up the hill may again prove an advantage coming here.
Cheltenham exertions can often leave their mark, but Cue Card arrived at Aintree a fresh horse 12 months ago handing out a thrashing to Don Poli and Djakadam and, while there are definite suspicions that he is not quite of that ability now, the opposition here looks weaker.
Even on his slightly disappointing run behind stable-companion Thistlecrack in the King George at Kempton in December, the 11-year-old has a small edge over both Silviniaco Conti (third) and Tea For Two (fourth), and there wasn't much wrong with his performance at Ascot in February even though that was a race for the taking.
Cue Card's record at Aintree is impressive with two wins and three placings from five career visits, the defeats coming when second to Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Don Cossack.
On the subject of course form, Silviniaco Conti boasts similarly strong credentials having won this in 2014 and 2015 as well as winning a novice chase at this meeting in 2012.
It looks like Paul Nicholls has deliberately freshened him up since the King George for this return visit but he hasn't beaten Cue Card in their last four meetings and, overall, seems a light of former days.
Empire Of Dirt has a more progressive profile than the aforementioned old rivals, but he appeared to run rather flat in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last month when only fourth to Un De Sceaux (Aso third) on a course and on ground which he had thrived on when winning at the 2016 Festival.
An earlier second to subsequent Gold Cup winner Sizing John at Leopardstown would give him a great chance but he needs to show more sparkle.
At 40/1, Aso ran a tremendous race in the Ryanair and had previously stayed on well over three miles at Kempton. On the ratings, he has plenty to find but appears to be improving while Bristol De Mai, seventh in the Gold Cup, has twice been well beaten since his easy win at Haydock in January under more testing conditions than he is likely to face here.
Smad Place, eighth in the Gold Cup, has run well at this meeting in the past but will need a career-best effort while Tea For Two's jumping will be tested on a course where the fences demand plenty of respect.
Lizzie Kelly's mount got only as far as the second fence at Cheltenham but wasn't beaten far in the King George so can be given a squeak.
Later, it is tempting to chance a bit of value with The New One in the Betway Aintree Hurdle as the nine-year-old has a very good record at Aintree and won this race after a titanic battle with Rock On Ruby in 2014.
Under what is bound to be an aggressive ride over a trip that suits him well nowadays, he can certainly serve it up to the odds-on favourite Buveur D'Air who beat him over ten lengths in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham last month.
However, the favourite shapes as though he will be suited by this distance too and may prove too classy.
Nicky Henderson's gorgeous French import beat Petit Mouchoir and Limini here last year and should confirm the Festival form with the runner-up My Tent Or Yours (his stable-mate) who was distant second to Annie Power in this race last year and probably struggles to stay two-and-and-a-half miles.
Identity Thief, sixth to the aforementioned Annie Power in last season's Champion Hurdle is an interesting runner reverting to the smaller obstacles after losing his way in novice chases, but it will be surprising if he can live with the favourite.
In the Betway Red Rum Handicap Chase, ASTRE DE LA COUR must have claims returning to the scene of his biggest success when winning over hurdles at this meeting in 2015.
The seven-year-old has done well switched to fences, winning at Taunton in early December followed by two creditable seconds at Wincanton and this may have been his target with Paul Townend an interesting booking.
Posted 1045 BST on 05/04/2017
