Ebor Festival tips: Simon Holt previews day three at York

Recommended bets: Simon Holt at York

2pts win Dartmouth in 2.25 York at best morning price

2pts win Battaash in 3.35 York at best morning price

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Friday's Group One Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes provides one of the clashes of the season between two brilliantly quick three-year-olds BATTAASH and Lady Aurelia.

Both have been most impressive in recent outings; Battaash completed a hat-trick this season when bolting up by over two lengths from Profitable with Marsha, Take Cover, Washington DC, Final Venture and Priceless behind in the King George Stakes at Goodwood.

Meanwhile, Wesley Ward's filly Lady Aurelia repeated her stunning Royal Ascot performance of 12 months earlier when blitzing the opposition in the King's Stand Stakes in June. On that occasion, Profitable was beaten three lengths into second with Marsha a head away third, and Alpha Delphini, Cotai Glory, Final Venture, Goldream, Priceless and Washington DC further back.

Clearly there are lines of form between the two horses; at Goodwood, Battaash was receiving 3lb in weight-for-age from Profitable whereas, at Ascot, Lady Aurelia received a 9lb age and sex allowance from the same horse.

While not in any way weighted to turn the tables on the two market leaders, Profitable looks a reliable guide and, with the weight-for-age scale changing as the season progresses to reflect growing maturity in the younger generation (and complicating matters a great deal), he concedes just 2lb and 5lb respectively this time.

On my calculations, Profitable could be rated 5lb inferior to Lady Aurelia at Ascot and 6lb inferior to Battaash at Goodwood. And, if you take Marsha as a guide, Battaash has a little bit more in hand over the American filly.

Clearly these are fine margins, but how else to split them? Both seem to handle give in the ground and the flat, fast track looks ideal. It could be an absolute thriller.

The rest of York's third-day card looks no more straightforward but I will stick with DARTMOUTH, an old ally of this column, to defy a penalty in the Group Two Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup.

Sir Michael Stoute's five-year-old, who races in the colours of Her Majesty, The Queen, tries two miles for the first time here but wasn't stopping when landing the Yorkshire Cup over a mile-and-six-furlongs here in May on soft ground (High Jinx a close third) and, while that form has taken some knocks since, he does look a class act in this field with two Group Two wins under his belt.

At Royal Ascot last time, Dartmouth failed in his bid to win a second Hardwicke Stakes, probably finding ground conditions a bit quick and looking outpaced in the closing stages before finishing fourth behind the high class Idaho (Dal Harraild sixth).

But, with plenty of stamina in his pedigree and going conditions likely to be more suitable, a few extra furlongs could be what he really wants.

The other 'class' horse in the race is Sheikhzayedroad, winner of the Doncaster Cup and at Ascot on Champions Day last season, but the eight-year-old hasn't looked quite so good in two domestic starts this term.

A bigger threat to the selection could be the likely favourite Thomas Hobson, an easy winner of the Ascot Stakes in June before failing to peg back Oriental Fox in the Queen Alexandra Stakes four days later.

Both those races were over extreme distances (2m4f and 2m6f) so Jim Crowley's mount, a winner over similar trips over hurdles, will need to cope with this slightly faster test.

The other two ITV televised contests on the card have been consigned to my 'too difficult tray', and any remaining powder dry is being kept dry for Saturday and the Ebor....

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