Simon Holt bets bets for the weekend

Horse Racing

Sat July 01, 2017 · 7y ago

Simon Holt identifies his best bets for Saturday's action, including Andre Fabre's chestnut Waldgeist in the Irish Derby.

Recommended bets:

2pts win Seamour in 3.30 Newcastle at best morning price

2pts win London Prize in 3.00 Newcastle at best morning price

1pt win Waldgeist in 5.20 the Curragh at best morning price

Click here for our transparent tipping record.

Finding winners can often be a battle between the head and the heart and, being a lover and not a fighter, your correspondent will keep the ardour with SEAMOUR in the Stobart Rail Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday.

In this race 12 months ago, Brian Ellison's six-year-old appeared to have it won when kicking three lengths clear approaching the final furlong only to idle in front and succumb to the late charge of Antiquarium.

Seamour's near-miss turned out to be a prelude for further frustrations as he was narrowly beaten on two other occasions despite invariably travelling like the best horse and Ben Curtis, in the saddle again, will clearly try to delay his effort this time.

All looks set for another big run; up just 4lb now, the son of Azamour shaped nicely in Listed company on his reappearance at York a month ago when finishing third to Dal Harraild over a mile-and-six-furlongs and, with the locally-born Ellison long harbouring ambitions to win the most historic horse race run in the north east, Seamour will be spot on for another attempt.

The danger could well be Sir Mark Prescott's lightly-raced Flymetothestars who, in four career starts has raced exclusively on all-weather surfaces winning on both his visits to Newcastle.

So far, the gelding has run in only relatively small fields but, assuming he copes with what could be a much more strongly-run and competitive race, he looks open to further improvement and the form of his defeat of Endless Acres over the course and distance here in mid-May was given a boost when the runner-up filled the same position on turf behind Thomas Hobson in last week's Ascot Stakes.

Higher Power is another progressive type whose second to Big Orange at Sandown last time (with She's A Lady third) was also strongly advertised at Royal Ascot though James Fanshawe's gelding has gone up 20lb in the ratings for winning just one of his last five starts.

Godolphin bid to follow-up Antiquarium's win with the Dubawi filly Natural Scenery who, while disappointing on All-Weather Finals Day at Lingfield, had previously cantered up over this course and distance in February.

However, that was a slowly-run race in which Josephine Gordon's mount was always well placed while the second and third, London Prize and the re-opposing Hot Beat, were given too much to do.

The aforementioned LONDON PRIZE should take plenty of beating in the preceding Betfred Northumberland Vase after being balloted out of the big race.

This most likeable gelding has improved throughout the last eight months notching his third victory on the Flat, by eight lengths, at Goodwood last time to add to his Imperial Cup Hurdle win at Sandown in March.

London Prize is well handicapped here under a 5lb penalty as he will go up 4lb in future handicaps having been reassessed following that latest success.

Meanwhile, the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at the Curragh sees the English and French Derby form being put to the test.

It's quite possible that Wings Of Eagles, the shock 40/1 winner at Epsom, has been underestimated and he could well be progressing quickly. Now ridden by Ryan Moore (replacing Padraig Beggy), the handsome Pour Moi colt overcame a few traffic problems and was well on top at the finish.

However, on lines of form involving the Derby fifth Benbatl and Order Of The Garter, Wings Of Eagles has little in hand over Andre Fabre's WALDGEIST, a stoutly-bred son of Galileo who now steps up to a mile and a half for the first time.

In the Prix de Jockey Club at Chantilly (10f), Waldgeist came home strongly failing by a short head to hold Brametot (earlier winner of the French 2000 Guineas), with the Aidan O'Brien-trained pair Taj Mahal fourth and Orderofthegarter sixth, and his shrewd trainer is confident that he can get better.

Cracksman, a game third at Epsom having raced a little closer to the searching pace than both the winner and runner-up Cliffs Of Moher (Capri sixth, Douglas Macarthur seventh), can hardly be ruled out especially over a mile and a half which is less of a stamina test (based on standard times) than Epsom. It should be a terrific contest.

Posted at 1055 BST on 30/06/17.