Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the feature races at Newbury and Ripon this weekend and feels Sir Michael Stoute might be able to enhance his good recent run.
Recommended bets
1pt win Sextant in 3.00 Newbury (Saturday) at 9/1
1pt win Hyperfocus in 3.15 Ripon (Sunday) at 20/1
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Another tricky-looking weekend to unpick, especially given there is no standout, big-field handicap to really get stuck into until Sunday's William Hill St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon - which we'll get to - but the Group Two Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday has a reasonable shape to it.
Threat, Pierre Lapin and Surf Dancer feature among six three-year-olds, while last year’s winner Glorious Journey and the 2018 runner-up Dream Of Dreams could be back for another bite at the cherry.
Limato is in there too having enjoyed a bit of a break since his deeply impressive win in the Criterion at Newmarket at the end of June, but the surprise entry is recent Glorious Goodwood winner One Master, who was presumed to be heading for York ahead of another go at the Prix de la Foret on Arc day.
She’s been priced up pretty conservatively (5/2 favourite with Sky Bet and Hills) given the participation doubts and she’ll have the 3lb penalty for winning a Group race already this year. That also applies to Limato and Glorious Journey, the latter having struck in Meydan in January.
One Master’s William Haggas stable companion Surf Dancer won well in Listed company at York last month and escapes a penalty, but so does Dream Of Dreams and with Sir Michael Stoute’s older horses seemingly all coming to the boil around the same time, this looks a gilt-edged chance for him.
He’s the highest rated with an official mark of 117 and, like many from the yard, still looks well capable of matching his very best form despite being a six-year-old.
That certainly looks the case based on his Royal Ascot effort in June – the second year in succession he’s flown home to be beaten a head in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. Second to Blue Point 12 months ago, this year it was Hello Youmzain who just held him off in the dying strides but it was another top-class performance.
The step back to seven furlongs is the big question mark over him – his only win at the trip coming in a small all-weather conditions event in September 2017. But he twice filled the runner-up spot over the distance in August 2018, including this race when second-fiddle to a peak form Sir Dancealot, and he looks made for it at this stage in his career.
He’s 4/1 at Sky Bet, Ladbrokes and Coral and could realistically be favourite on the day.
They’re watering at Newbury to maintain the good to firm going at the start of the week but with the odd stormy shower in the forecast we might be looking at very different conditions come Saturday.
Dream Of Dreams is arguably even more effective with a bit of give and while that’s also the case for Glorious Journey and certainly One Master, it would likely see Limato ruled out if there was genuinely some cut underfoot.
Another who deserves a positive mention is the German-trained Namos, who one can only assume is able to fulfil this engagement with no new general COVID-19-related restrictions in place at the time of writing.
He finished only a length behind Hello Youmzain when eighth in the July Cup at Newmarket, where he didn’t look ideally placed racing away from where the action unfolded.
He wasn’t quick enough or good enough on the day but did lose a shoe as well so the effort can probably be upgraded slightly so the 16/1 on offer looks fair.
Trainer Dominik Moser hasn’t had too many runners on these shores but he has had three UK winners including Waldpfad, who landed the Group Three Hackwood Stakes as a 33/1 outsider at Newbury last summer.
Namos would appreciate a bit of rain too, on top of the return to seven furlongs looking particularly in his favour, and it’s not hard to see him running a big race if declared.
Dream Of Dreams is probably the one to be on in the main event but there’s a more convincing Stoute bet to be had elsewhere on the Newbury card, with SEXTANT (9/1 Sky Bet) entered and jocked up under Louis Steward in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes.
The son of Sea The Stars has been difficult to train in the past, unsurprising given the sheer size of him, but he was putting it all together at the end of last season and can really kick on this term.
His one-length Chester defeat of Manuela De Vega in a Listed race in September reads particularly well given the mare’s subsequent wins this season, while there was no disgrace in being put in his place by the reopposing Morando at the end of a long year on bad ground at Ascot when last sighted.
Stoute has obviously been biding his time with Sextant in search of the right opportunity and this weekend’s Group Three looks an ideal spot so I’d expect him to be as fit as he can be first time out.
Admittedly, he was a disappointing fourth of five in the same race 12 months ago – Morando again finishing in front of him - but that rather flat effort came on the back of a handicap victory at Ascot under a big weight and he may just have recoiled slightly when initially upped in grade.
He’s had another year to fill out now and is exactly the type of horse his trainer manages to take to the next level kept in training at five. He’ll need to step up again to get the better of his old rival Morando, who was well held in the Hardwicke in June on his comeback, but he’s returning at the perfect time with the yard very much among the winners and has always looked capable of progressing further given time.
Stoute stablemate Alignak isn’t jocked up and, although he’s antepost favourite here at 3/1, it's hoped he might be in line for the Sky Bet Ebor instead after a hard-fought Haydock second to Trueshan took his mark up to 108.
Hukum has to prove himself out of handicap company, while Communique stopped to nothing at Goodwood so I’m happy to overlook them at 8/1 and 5s respectively.
The Derby form looks questionable at best so I’d need to see more from Max Vega before going in again at 14s but 6/1 shot Sea Of Faith could be interesting after a year off.
Her three-year-old campaign was considered a bit of a flop but that may have partly been due to the fact she came along quite soon after Sea Of Class for the same connections, which is obviously a bit unfair.
She won well in a 12-furlong Salisbury handicap from a mark of 95 on her last start so more than merits a crack at something along these lines. There’s no doubt Spanish Mission (4/1) already has the requisite class and this looks bang on the right sort of trip for him, but at twice the price it has to be Sextant at this stage.
As for the Great St Wilfrid, the sponsors have opened up 15/2 Kimifive (Cieren Fallon booked) with another 15 horses priced at 14/1 or shorter. That's a fair clear indication that we're likely to be getting a bigger price on Saturday afternoon when it comes to a whole host of these potential runners which is off-putting from antepost perspective.
However, there's one from the 'rest of' bracket who looks like he could be a market springer, especially if there's some rain around, and that is HYPERFOCUS (20/1 Hills) for a Tim Easterby team that has exploded into life in the past fortnight.
Formerly trained by Hugo Palmer, Hyperfocus was aimed at two big course and distance Ripon races last year, winning the first from a mark of 90 (soft ground) before going down a neck to Growl in the consolation race for the Great St Wilfrid off 89 (good to soft).
He went on to be a neck second off 94 in the highly-competitive Coral Sprint Trophy at York in October (testing ground again) and it's primarily that effort - when splitting Gulliver and Danzeno, with the likes of Lahore, Summerghand and Hey Jonesy further back in the field - that makes him stand out like a beacon having now dropped right back down to 88.
A 9lb ease in the weights looks really quite generous based on three unplaced efforts in red-hot handicaps so far in 2020 and there's every chance this race has been on the radar from the outset.
He'll make the cut this year and, if the weather forecast is right, could have his optimum conditions too so wouldn't be out of place much nearer the top of the market (Ladbrokes and Coral already as short as 14s) than the bottom.
Posted at 1645 BST on 10/08/20
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