Free racing tips: Dave Massey's bets for Saturday at Cheltenham, Hereford and Doncaster

Recommended bets

0.5pts e.w. Militarian in 1.50 Cheltenham at 40/1 (1,2,3,4,5,6) (minimum 33/1)

1pt win Liffeydale Dreamer in 1.22 Hereford at 7/1 (minimum 6/1)

1pt win Rough Night in 12.20 Doncaster at 8/1 (minimum 6/1)

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Hales And Hearty

Rough Night won on his second start last season after finishing well held on his return, and he’s worth backing to repeat that feat a year on in the Each Way Extra at Bet365 Handicap Chase. Alex Hales has his horses in fine fettle this autumn, and while this seven-year-old gelding was down the field behind The Big Bite at Aintree last month, he was in contention when making a bad mistake five out, and that put paid to any chance he had.

Rough Night can make mistakes, which is obviously a worry, but often the big Sandown fences will get sloppy jumpers to pay a bit more attention, and he was a winner at Warwick last December, which like Sandown has a line of fences in quick succession in the back straight.

He was also a very good second to Joke Dancer there on his next start, before failing to stay 2½m behind the top-notch Caribean Boy on his final outing of the 2019/20 season. The form of those races is working out well, and he appears to be fairly handicapped in relation to most of his rivals here. I’m Troy McClure, and you may recognise this write-up from such hits as “Punting Pointers Last Friday”, but it’s valid again after he was taken out of his previous intended engagement.

Dublin’ Down

Liffeydale Dreamer qualified for this quite valuable (but in effect, a 0-110) mares final by finishing fourth at Uttoxeter in October, a run that caught the eye, and that isn’t her only start over fences where you’ve come to the conclusion that, if she gets her fencing technique in order, she’ll improve plenty on what she’s achieving at present. To that end, a pair of cheekpieces today might be the catalyst needed, and she does look on a very fair mark based on what she’s achieved over hurdles.

Despite what her pedigree says, she seems to want a trip, and this will be the Yorkshire yard’s first ever runner at the track. It all has the look of a bit of a plan coming together, and if she can jump with more fluency, she should be taking a hand in the finish.

Lugg River/Perfect Pirate

There’s a couple of interesting ones worth a mention here, and it is merely coincidence that they are related and in the same race!

The one we can be sure will stay is Perfect Pirate, twice a point-to-point winner earlier in the year and returned to Rules racing with a perfectly good effort at Southwell, finishing third to the improving Skylanna Breeze, and doing all his best work at the business end.

This track, which is against the collar for a good proportion, will test his stamina much more than Southwell would, and that can only help his cause, as can the addition of blinkers to get him to travel a bit easier (he can take a bit of cajoling along).

Lugg River first caught the eye when fifth to Misty Whisky in Sandown’s Listed Mares bumper in 2019, a race that has worked out well, but she hasn’t progressed as expected, with her hurdling technique rather holding her back. However, it was better on her reappearance at Stratford, and she now gets cheekpieces for her first handicap, so there are reasons to think she could now progress, but this trip is a concern - on breeding, she could prove best around 20f (like her sister, the useful River Arrow, who also runs in these colours and is trained by Tom Symonds).

Sadly both are towards the front of the market. If pushed, Perfect Pirate, with stamina proven, would be the stronger of the two, but at the prices we can probably pass.

Major Place Chance

There was plenty of discussion between us as to how Cheltenham might pan out, and, in true Brexit fashion, we have decided to go our own ways (Rory wanted fishing rights in the river near our house, I wanted access to his wife, an agreement neither of us was happy with) but the one horse we did agree might outrun his big odds is old Militarian, who didn’t jump anywhere near as well as he usually does at Ascot but despite that, ran on in most game fashion to take a distant third to Regal Encore.

This trip is a bare minimum for him, but the ground seems to have some juice in it, which will help, and he ran well over C&D on New Year’s Day, when a wind problem stopped him from going through with his final effort. He’s had that corrected since, and with six places on offer, the 33s looks a fair price.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 11/12/20

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