Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster David Massey

By David Massey

Horse Racing

Sat October 17, 2020 · 4y ago

The David Massey half of the punting pointers partnership with Rory Delargy is in the chair for Saturday and he has three bets including one at Ascot.

Recommended Bets: Saturday October 17

1pt win Fleursals in 3.28 Stratford at 11/1 (minimum 9/1)

1pt e.w Alternative Fact in 4.15 Ascot at 10/1 (take no lower)

1pt win Three Saints Bay 4.50 Catterick at 11/2 (minimum 7/2)

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Just The Fact, Ma’am: Alternative Fact 4.15 Ascot

The previous five contests on the Ascot card all might carry more prestige, but in terms of the big betting event on the card, most punters will look to the closing Balmoral Handicap for some value.

Alternative Fact has run well for much of the season, his only really disappointing effort coming when finding a false pace against him when held up at Goodwood. His latest effort, when sixth in an ultra-competitive York handicap, can be marked up, as he did well to get as close as he did after starting slowly from his very wide stall, which left him in an almost hopeless position.

This test should suit him well, given he’s proven over C&D after his third to Sir Busker in the Silver Hunt Cup earlier in the year (when ridden by Frankie Dettori, back on board tomorrow) and softer ground will suit him even better. Ed Dunlop has his horses in excellent form and there’s no reason for Alternative Fact not to run his race, while the likely strong pace will mean he’s likely to be finishing off as well as anything.

He’s been backed this week whilst the market has been weak, but the price ought to hold up now.

Fleursals To Step Forward - 3.28 Stratford

On the face of it, Fleursals needs to improve a little to take this, but she’s only had the five starts over hurdles and with this test likely to suit her, there are reasons for thinking improvement may well be forthcoming.

She may well have won a race already but for falling two out when in front at Ludlow last November, and then she was far from disgraced when fourth in Listed company at Aintree on her next start, bang in the firing line two out and only weakening after the last. A poor effort at Doncaster on her final start of last year can be excused, given she had a breathing operation in the summer, and she shaped perfectly well on her first start of this year at Ffos Las, travelling fine until getting weary. The handicapper gives her a handy 4lb drop for that, too.

A sharp track and good ground (it continues to dry out at Stratford, with little to no rain forecast) are probably ideal for Fleursals, and Tom Symonds, a trainer I have plenty of time for, continues in good form, with two winners this week. In a race where one or two appear to have reached the top end of their marks already, she has a bit more scope to improve.

Bay To Make It Pay - Three Saints Bay 4.50 Catterick

Three Saints Bay was a selection from us in the week and for four-fifths of the Musselburgh handicap he raced in, he looked the winner, but sadly he was picked up late and had no answers to Marshal Dan’s late thrust. T

he pair finished over three lengths clear of the third, and it was a season’s best from Three Saints Bay regardless, so from the same mark here he has every chance of compensation, particularly as he drops from a competitive Class 2 to a Class 4 today.

Stall 11 looks a positive with jockeys riding to get the outside rail when the going turns testing here, with a couple of hold-up horses drawn to his outside and Erich Bloch, who looks the likely pacesetter, to his inside in stall 10 to give him a lead into the race.

Tikanite For Your Trackers - 1.13 Stratford

This column isn’t all about trying to put winners up on the day, it’s called Pointers for a reason, and one I’ve got my eye on for future handicaps runs at Stratford today, namely Shaun Lycett’s Tikanite in the maiden hurdle at 1.13.

Let’s go back four years to 2016 and the Cheltenham paddock, where I was stood as they came out for the closing bumper, won by Brahms De Clermont. I really liked the look of Tikanite as a future winner and he didn’t disgrace himself that day by any means, finishing sixth. Two further runs in bumpers merely backed up that impression, but then we don’t see Tikanite for over three years until he reappears at Uttoxeter last month. He gave plenty of trouble beforehand, but runs well to finish fourth, unsurprisingly getting tired late.

That form is a little mixed - the winner has been beaten at odds-on, but the fifth came out and won what looked a competitive novice hurdle at Warwick on her next start. I don’t think Tikanite will be winning this - on all we know, it looks My Way’s to lose - but if he was a silly price, I could be tempted in. I’m really looking for him to back up that Utoxeter run with the future in mind, and with that, might be more one to watch today.

Posted 1800 BST on 16/10/20

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