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Saturday analysis: Soft options at Doncaster on Sky Bet Chase day
Cheltenham's Trials Day card has sadly been lost to the weather but Ben Linfoot has been going through the horses that could thrive in the mud at Doncaster on Sky Bet Chase day.
With Cheltenham’s Trials Day meeting lost to the wet weather and Doncaster’s Sky Bet Chase card set to be run on at least soft ground, with the potential for worsening conditions, it’s worth focusing on those horses that should revel in the deep mid-winter mud at Town Moor on Saturday.
DASH OF BLUE – 12.55 Doncaster
Ben Case’s DASH OF BLUE looks interesting off a low weight in the Visit attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle at Doncaster (12.55) on Saturday.
The six-year-old has shown much improved form in a tongue-strap this season, running well on all three occasions he has been out, the highlight being his half-length victory over subsequent Ffos Las winner Imperial Acolyte on the only occasion he has encountered cut in the ground (good to soft).
He was below that form at Fakenham last time, but the ground might have been a bit lively for him that day and the sharp nature of the track didn’t look to suit him, either.
Doncaster looks much more his bag and Case has an excellent record here, winning 10 races from 59 goes at 17%, a healthy strike-rate comparative to his record at other courses (it is significantly his best strike-rate from any track where he’s had over 50 runners).
If the ground turns more testing than the current description of ‘soft’ it will be a new test for Dash Of Blue, who has yet to encounter heavy ground.
However, the progeny of his sire, Great Pretender, have an excellent record on such conditions, winning 30 from 124 at 24.19% on ground that was officially ‘heavy’ during the last five years, a strike-rate that eclipses most other National Hunt stallions in the same timeframe.
PATS FANCY & PORTSTORM 2.40 Doncaster
Two horses strike me as being interesting in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle on the current soft ground and especially if things get even more testing on Town Moor.
PATS FANCY stands out as he is right up there on what he has done anyway, his second to Make Good at Cheltenham being one of the best pieces of form in the race – and he had Saturday’s rivals Ask A Honey Bee and Ashtown Lad beaten in behind.
They didn’t go hard in that race and it proved an insufficient test for Pats Fancy, even over three miles, but the River Don in tough conditions looks perfect for him.
A winner of a Ffos Las maiden hurdle in heavy ground over 2m4f two starts ago, the form of that race is working out well with the runner-up, Gladiateur Allen, winning at Ascot last Saturday - and that was a significant nod to Pats Fancy who beat him well.
He was backed before the withdrawal of Flash Collonges and now that horse has been withdrawn he could even challenge for favouritism.
The other one I want to mention is the outsider of the field at a general 40/1 and 50s in a few places: PORTSTORM.
As you would expect by looking at the market, he has a fair bit to find and the form of his latest win at Ayr is suspect, to say the least, after they dawdled on the first circuit and all still finished very tired on the heavy ground.
Portstorm looked beaten at one stage in that race, when he traded at 240s on Betfair, but he stayed on past flailing rivals to win and he looks a strong stayer who handles testing ground well.
Indeed, the best performance of his career came at Ayr over three miles when he was second to Escaria Ten in heavy ground last season and it’s interesting Ian Duncan brings him down from his Ayrshire base for this.
He’s only had two runners at Doncaster before and one of them, Lochnell, was second at 11/1, while Portstorm is a son of Shirocco, whose progeny have a good record in soft/heavy ground over jumps at Doncaster (five from 16 at 31.25%).
It doesn’t look like he’s got the ability of most of his rivals in the River Don, but it might not come down to that and he’s at least worth considering at big odds.
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STEP TO THE TOP – 4.25 Doncaster
Experience could be vital in the British European Breeders Fund Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race after two days of racing on Town Moor.
It could be gruelling and STEP TO THE TOP is more experienced than most, having had three runs already in bumpers last season, and she ran to a good standard each time as form figures of 3-2-2 suggest.
Her second at Warwick came behind Nada To Prada in heavy ground, with Michael Scudamore’s mare now rated 132 after a couple of hurdles successes this season, so she’ll set a clear form standard and is a likely short-priced favourite.
I wouldn’t want to be taking her on, though, and she could well become the latest horse by Doyen to thrive in the Town Moor mud after Pine Creek, Valdez and Hurricane Harvey.