Ben Linfoot assesses Jonquil's 2000 Guineas prospects after the Juddmonte-owned colt laid down a marker in the Greenham at Newbury on Saturday.
The Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes at Newbury, a race that has been run for over a century, has a rich history of being a platform for top-class horses from Orwell through to Mill Reef, Wollow, Celtic Swing and Frankel.
Less so, in recent years, has it been a prolific trial for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas. Indeed, Frankel was the last horse to win the Greenham and the Guineas in 2011, while Night Of Thunder, in 2014, was the last 2000 Guineas winner to run in the Greenham (who completed the trial, anyway).
It often showcases the talents of at least one good horse or more, though, and this year’s renewal can be viewed positively in that regard.
The winner, JONQUIL, certainly can be filed in that category, at the very least. This was impressive on his third career start, benefitting from his time off, looking a different proposition to the horse that ran poorly in the Flying Scotsman at Doncaster on his final start at two.
That day he was slowly away after getting worked up beforehand and a line can be drawn through that run. On his debut he had shown loads of promise, winning a good Sandown maiden that worked out well despite trouble in the run, and if he showed promise that day he delivered on it a Newbury.
Taken back in the early stages by Oisin Murphy, he was soon tracking the form horse Rashabar in a group towards the stands’ side as Al Qudra led the other half of the field slightly more towards the far side.
As the groups began to merge as one Murphy was travelling notably well on the outside of the pack, with William Buick riding away on Al Qudra and Sean Levey getting after Rashabar.
Murphy waited, but approaching the furlong pole he asked his mount for his effort and the response was immediate, the son of Lope De Vega quickening to lead and lengthening clear with Rashabar who ran well a-length-and-a-half behind in second.
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So, could Jonquil boost the Greenham's record in the 2000 Guineas?
If he goes there he might well do and it should be remembered his new trainer Andrew Balding prepared Chaldean to win a 2000 Guineas for Juddmonte two years ago, that horse prepping for Classic glory in this very race, for all that he unshipped Frankie Dettori coming out of the stalls.
The exciting thing about Jonquil is that he looks to have plenty of pace for a horse that is bred for a bit further. Out of the Dubawi mare, Jovial, from the family of Frankel, you would think a mile will be well within range and this well-balanced colt has the tools to deal with the undulations of the Rowley Mile.
With all that in mind, in what looks an open year with no blindingly obvious standard bearer in the division, the revised quotes of 14/1 about him for the 2000 Guineas look very fair indeed.
He appeals as a Guineas type, one that has proven he has trained on well, his fitness not in doubt, but the problem from an antepost point of view is that his owners, Juddmonte, have plenty of arrows to aim in the Guineas sphere and at this stage he could easily line up in the French Guineas instead.
Cosmic Year is another iron in the Guineas fire for Juddmonte, an impressive winner at Kempton last week who could be anything, while they also have Field Of Gold, trained by the Gosdens and all set to reappear in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket next week.
Firm decisions will probably be kept on hold until he runs, but out of that trio of Juddmonte-owned colts Jonquil looks the best equipped to launch a serious Guineas bid after what he did at Newbury. It might depend on what Field Of Gold does, but I suspect Jonquil will line up at Newmarket and I can see him running well.
Rashabar confirmed himself a three-year-old to be reckoned with in second and better can be expected of him with this run under his belt.
Last year’s Coventry Stakes winner improved on that Royal Ascot-winning form when second in the Prix Morny and then the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere after that, and trainer Brian Meehan will be pleased with how well he showed up here on his return.
He’s predicting ‘a good 20 per cent improvement’ in the son of Holy Roman Emperor from this run, so this looks a nice platform for his own Guineas tilt.
Whether he can turn around the form with Jonquil is another matter, as I'm not sure he has the gears of the winner. Going out in trip will help him as he's bred for further, being out of a Camelot mare, and it will be interesting to see if Meehan goes down the French Derby route with him.
Of the rest third home Saracen ran okay but might prefer easier ground, the sixth home Chancellor hung to his left and looked to need the experience and the eighth, 11/4 favourite Al Qudra, was most disappointing.
Rogue Allegiance pulled way too hard and finished last, unsurprising after his antics in the first quarter mile. He made a good impression on debut at Newcastle, though, and might make a sprinter yet if he settles for going quicker over six.
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