Sandown takes centre stage this Saturday and Matt Brocklebank has one recommended bet at a big price.
Value Bet tips: Saturday January 4
1pt win Joyeux Machin in 3.35 Sandown at 33/1 (General)
Not a vintage Saturday by any racing punter’s standards and Sandown’s Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase Series Final - confined to those of a certain vintage themselves - has attracted only half the maximum number of runners allowed to compete in it.
Only 13 were entered at the start of the week so we could have ended up with far fewer than a final field of nine in fairness. Either way, I’ve been going on about Eldorado Allen seemingly being lined up for this since his comeback at Warwick in November and nothing about the grey’s subsequent running-on third over a shorter trip at Cheltenham would put you off Joe Tizzard’s charge, but he’s been priced up as one of the favourites and I’m now naturally inclined to go against the prevailing view.
Stablemate Copperhead is another form horse of the race, having put in his fifth fine effort in a row when second in the aforementioned race at Cheltenham last month. Empire Steel is starting to creep back to a reasonable mark but has registered his five chase wins going left-handed, including four at Kelso where he’s likely to return next month.
Among the outsiders, Smarty Wild and Chambard were both pulled-up on their seasonal debut, but neither should be completely written off. Smarty Wild has to race from 2lb out of the weights, with Ben Jones getting down to his minimum of 10-2, but even this mark of 127 gives him a chance on peak form, which was admittedly three or four years ago now as he spent the whole of last season on the sidelines.
His trainers Philip Hobbs and Johnson White have been able to sweeten up several horses who appeared to have lost their way a little of late, so there’s hope for this 11-year-old yet, while Chambard won the Becher last season on his second run back, although he was second on his return that year so it’s a stretch to see him scoring here having been out with the washing by halfway at Cheltenham last month.
Ultimately, it looks a very tough race in which to form a strong view as I wouldn’t be shocked if Harry Fry’s Ask Me Early or the top-weight Sam Brown - 1lb lower than when winning this event last year - get the job done either. So, we can move on as I certainly won’t be forcing an opinion.
Hardy Du Seuil is another bidding to stage a repeat of last year’s success on the card as he returns for the Free Bet With Unibet’s BetBuilder Rebound Handicap Hurdle, but Jamie Snowden’s horse is 6lb higher in the weights now having run three or four good races in defeat in the meantime.
Navajo Indy has been hit quite hard for his Newbury win and, on top of that, he should face plenty of competition for the lead courtesy of Jour d’Evasion and Honky Tonk Highway. The latter made all here last time and she will be a popular selection under Harry Skelton, but the one who interests me most at the odds is the mare’s stablemate JOYEUX MACHIN higher up the weights.
He looks to have completely lost his way at first glance and was beaten 24 lengths on debut for the Skeltons last month, but that did come in a very strange race after Mirabad’s rider Luke Scott grabbed the bull by the horns a long way from home and ultimately made plenty of the other jockeys look rather embarrassed.
It was probably not much more than a fact-finding outing for Joyeux Machin anyway, as he was sent off at 40/1 and anchored near the back early under Harry Atkins. He never threatened in truth, but I won’t be reading too much into that performance and while this horse’s smart bumper form, including a second to Facile Vega at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, was a while ago now, you only have to go back to early last season to see the ability was still very much intact at that point.
In fact, he looked booked for a good year after finding only Minella Crooner half a length too good in a Listed chase at Wexford last November, only for things to go awry again.
A first-fence fall in a Limerick Grade 3 can’t have helped his confidence but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Skelton rekindle his mojo at some point and a stiff two miles on what is bound to be very taxing ground this weekend should help bring stamina into play – something Joyeux Machin isn’t short on.
Perhaps the tongue-tie and headgear being left off again, as they were at Cheltenham, should be seen as a bit of a red flag but he’s been dropped 3lb and I’ve no doubt a BHA mark of 132 underestimates the eight-year-old’s raw ability.
This isn’t a particularly deep race for the grade and, on a quiet weekend, a small speculative bet is advised seeing as he’s being completely overlooked in the market again.
Published at 1600 GMT on 03/01/25
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