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Sandown Tips: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing Saturday August 31
Two recommended bets for our in-form, value-seeking expert at Sandown and Chester this Saturday - check out his latest preview.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 157.70pts in profit (233pts staked, ROI of 67.68%).
Value Bet tips: Saturday August 31
1pt win Accidental Agent in 1.50 Sandown at 14/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Gorak in 2.40 Chester at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
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David Menuisier's agonising 1000 Guineas fourth Tamfana (we’ve bounced back since, right?!) is one of the highest-rated horses in action in Britain this weekend, but she is starting to look a shade trip-less at this stage of her Classic campaign and is just the sort of favourite I’d typically look to take on at a short price in Sandown’s Sky Bet Atalanta Stakes.
However, the one I was most eager to side with – the remarkably well-bred Kensington Palace winner Doha – is far from certain to get the race run to suit as there doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of early pace on in the Group 3 contest.
Doha - by Sea The Stars out of Treve - got away with the trip somewhat at Ascot as they went pretty hard from the outset over the stiff mile there and she very nearly followed up in the Listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract next time, travelling strongly but having to concede first run to the winner after just getting in an awkward spot behind the weakening front-runner.
I came away from the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood thinking she’d run another positive race too and that form looks strong in the context of Saturday's race, but Sandown can be a tough place to make up ground late and I only really have Spiritual (stall three) as an obvious pace angle.
That’s surely not enough to make this a proper test and, on balance, I can let Doha go unbacked on this occasion.
Her trainer Ralph Beckett looks to have a significant player in the Sky Bet Solario Stakes too in Leicester winner Matauri Bay, although John and Thady Gosden’s Field Of Gold is likely to take plenty of beating in the big juvenile race of the day.
The one who I really thought might be capable of lowering the favourite’s colours is the Andrew Balding-trained Royal Playwright, the latest potential star out of Jeff Smith’s former Juddmonte International heroine Arabian Queen.
Royal Playwright, by Lope De Vega, went about his business in a very professional manner first time out in a traditionally warm Salisbury novice in the middle of last month and I’m very keen to see how he develops. Sadly, it seems I’m not alone in that regard as he’s no bigger than 5/2 at the time of writing and too short for my liking.
Earlier on, 10-year-old trooper ACCIDENTAL AGENT looks worth a chance in the Sky Bet Extra Places Every Day Handicap over seven furlongs.
The shock Queen Anne winner in 2018, it’s quite remarkable that he’s still in training to be honest and trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has done a fine job in keeping his enthusiasm up as there was a point when it looked like he’d lost the plot altogether.
Granted, Accidental Agent is obviously nowhere near the horse he once was and was reportedly semi-retired earlier this year but the handicapper is giving him a massive chance these days from a mark of just 91, eased another pound for his comeback run at Newbury recently.
Lethal Levi making every yard there tells you all you need to know about how unsuited the hold-up merchant Accidental Agent was by the way that race panned out and, given the circumstances, it was encouraging to see how he finished off in eighth, beaten two and a half lengths (reopposing Spanish Blaze was fifth).
A strongly-run race on quick ground is what this horse has always needed and, particularly at this stage of his career, he's surely going to come on for the first public outing since last autumn.
This race isn’t exactly packed with front-runners but the selection is the only one likely to be anchored early on and most of the others have tended to race more prominently so it’s no surprise to see Timeform forecasting an ‘even’ pace.
That might be enough to see Accidental Agent run efficiently enough at this venue, where his most recent start came in a mile handicap off a mark of 106 three summers ago.
He’s 13lb below his last winning mark (April 2022) at present and Mia Nicholls takes off another 5lb so, at the odds, I can’t resist a small win-only bet.
The William Hill Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes is an extremely trappy affair and I can’t really have any arguments with Commanche Falls and Democracy Dilemma topping the market, with marginal preference for the latter if pressed for a selection.
I like the booking of Beverley veteran Tom Eaves for this horse, who might be up to making the running and hanging tough as there won’t be much early pressure from elsewhere by the looks of it.
It’s not a brilliant betting heat, mind, and I’d be a tad scared of the old boy Emaraaty Ana staging a resurgence too, so giving Beverley a miss and turning to Chester's competitive-looking Livescore Bet Handicap looks sensible.
Progressive three-year-old Under Siege is the dead obvious one here but he's been well found in the market, especially after being drawn in three, but at four times the price GORAK is preferred.
He can be a little in-and-out but on a going day he's more than capable at this sort of level and seems to thrive on his racing so I'm not put off by the quick turnaround after he ran well at Epsom on Monday.
Charlie Fellowes' horse has stall 10 here which doesn't look brilliant on paper but what he does have is excellent gate speed and it's not hard to see the five-year-old managing to get out and across into a prominent position early on.
That immediately makes him of interest around here, where he finished second on his last visit at the May meeting last season, and he's able to run off 1lb lower than when beaten a short-head by the reopposing top-weight Carrytheone at Newmarket earlier this year.
He's 6lb better off with Saturday's favourite on these terms and Gorak handles all types of ground so he won't mind if it dries out appreciably from the 'good, good to soft' at the time of final declarations.
Published at 1600 BST on 30/08/24
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