Cheltenham Festival 2021 tips: Ryanair Chase antepost betting preview

Racing betting tips: Cheltenham Festival antepost

1pt win Saint Calvados in Ryanair Chase at 10/1

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One could have some fun cooking up all kinds of possibilities when assessing the Ryanair Chase 10 weeks in advance of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

How does Cyrname at 16/1 sound? Altior and Frodon both at 20s? Or could a trip to Martinstown Stud rekindle a not-inconsiderable fire which once burnt brightly in Defi Du Seuil? He’s also 20/1 if you shop around.

Colin Tizzard’s Lostintranslation – widely regarded a superstar in waiting at points over the past two seasons – can be backed at 25/1 for a Ryanair reincarnation having run two poor races since a fine third in last year’s Gold Cup.

Also at 25s, Angels Breath. Barely a whisper on him yet this term but he’s quoted just about across the board in the market, suggesting someone has at least put in a precautionary enquiry to their local turf accountant.

He was last seen winning the Grade Two Jacquart Noel Novices' Chase at Ascot by 23 lengths last December (granted, his sole rival made several mistakes), after which he was said to be out for a year.

I could go on when it comes to left-field suggestions: Graeaneteen (33/1), The Storyteller (33/1), Notebook (33/1), Faugheen (40/1)?

The one bona fide Grade One chaser I’d absolutely love to see entered in the race is Kemboy, but it seems I’m nigh on alone in that regard as there’s no sign of him at all in the betting.

He has exuberance and pace and he'd love genuine spring ground, though his half-length second to A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase likely all but confirmed his return for a third crack at the Gold Cup.

I argued in the immediate aftermath of the Savills that it wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest if the winner ultimately dropped back in trip for the Ryanair, and I stand by the notion he’d have stronger claims of winning a Ryanair (16/1) than a Gold Cup (12/1).

But that’s not how antepost betting works prior to non-runner, no-bet concessions kicking in, and it seems owners Cheveley Park are expected to push trainer Henry De Bromhead for a shot at the big one, particularly given they’ve seemingly got a lovely Ryanair Chase contender in the making in Allaho (12/1).

Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old has improved enormously after the turn of the year in each of his first two seasons in training and he’s definitely one bubbling away in the background who could yet have a massive say in some major end-of-year races.

But it’s not like he’s gone unnoticed at this point and at a similar price I’d rather back last year’s Ryanair runner-up SAINT CALVADOS (10/1 General).

He travelled and jumped with all his typical alacrity in the King George, never too far from the front-running Frodon, and was definitely the horse to take from the race having ended up crossing the line with Clan Des Obeaux, half a dozen lengths behind eventual second Waiting Patiently.

En route to the 2020 Ryanair, Saint Calvados was beaten a nose by Oldgrangewood in a New Year’s Day handicap and he at least matched that level of form here, despite conceding race-fitness to several high-class performers.

At the Festival itself, he put in a superb effort last term, going down just a neck to split Min and A Plus Tard, with Frodon back in fourth. Those rivals have all come out and won Grade One chases this season so there’s no reason to treat the form with anything but maximum respect.

Min could end up being the only one of that trio to reoppose this time around and he’s proving popular (no bigger than 6/1 and as short as 4s) for a repeat success after his John Durkan comeback win.

But Saint Calvados was arguably just one slick jump at the last fence away from matching the Mullins horse last March and, with two years on his rival, it’s Harry Whittington’s representative who should be open to the most improvement at this stage. A run in the Cotswold Chase is pencilled in next and hopefully that will effectively confirm to Whittington that he's not a Gold Cup winner-in-waiting.

The horse is clearly going to want some rain around again to be seen at his absolute best, but I gave up expecting good ground at Cheltenham long ago and it’s just not something worth placing any real emphasis on when looking for a bet this far out.

Getting the right horse on side is hard enough without having to predict the weather too and Saint Calvados looks to have a lot going for him.

Posted at 0900 GMT on 06/01/21

More Cheltenham Festival antepost previews & tips...

Matt Brocklebank is assessing the 2021 Cheltenham Festival markets and will be publishing his antepost previews in the build-up to the big meeting over the coming weeks.

In recent seasons, our man has already identified big-priced winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Baron Alco, 12/1) and Ladbrokes Trophy, striking rich in the Newbury feature with back-to-back 33/1 victors Sizing Tennessee and De Rasher Counter.

Matt also enjoyed a fantastic Flat season in 2020, having put up Love to win the 1000 Guineas at 16/1 and the same horse to win the Investec Oaks at 20/1 - he's now aiming to add to those profits with long-range selections for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. Click here on the image below for more.

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