With Royal Ascot fast approaching, our Value Bet expert Matt Brocklebank shines a light on a handful of horses creeping into the big meeting slightly under the radar.
The older miling division is clearly lacking a star and whatever wins the Queen Anne will have a far sterner test on their hands when the three-year-olds join the party at Goodwood and beyond.
Modern Games is a perfectly likeable character and was a worthy winner of the Lockinge – his first Group 1 victory on British soil. By the same token, he’s also fairly opposable as far as Royal Ascot favourites go, and in all honesty Inspiral could wipe the floor with the colts if resuming at her very best, after ending last season on a low note.
Jadoomi would possibly be worth another chance if the heavens open between now and the race (rarely out of the question in any British summer), while Maljoom is seemingly still waiting in the wings for William Haggas, but Modern Games may actually have most to fear from stable companion Native Trail.
He was disappointing on the face of it when odds-on for his comeback run at Newmarket over Guineas weekend but he was clearly rusty, having undergone a breathing operation through the winter, and he didn’t get the race run to suit either as they crawled through the early stages and the front-runner sprinted away from the rest.
A more strongly-run test at the trip will play to his strengths at Ascot and anything like the form of his Irish Guineas win or Coral-Eclipse third from last term brings him firmly into the equation.
This looks potentially one of the races of the meeting if the big names all turn up and, for what it’s worth, I’d just about make Adayar the one to beat ahead of Luxembourg or Desert Crown in the Prince of Wales’s.
Four-way heavyweight clashes rarely come to fruition these day and it's probably too much to ask Hukum to line up here too, but either way David Simcock is surely going to consider running Light Infantry.
Granted, it would be a bit of a baptism of fire as far as first runs over the 10-furlong distance go, but this horse is crying out for more of a test of stamina after a creditable effort in the Lockinge, and an even better one upped to nine furlongs in the Prix d’Ispahan last time.
An inspired change of tactics from Jamie Spencer very nearly paid off in France, the horse making the running and going down by a short-neck in a tight finish after being headed and rallying gamely close to the line.
His revised official BHA rating of 116 looks a little more realistic compared to the 120 from the start of the campaign, but he remains in the right ballpark for Group 1 honours and it’s not hard to see him running a massive race here before heading back to Australia later in the year.
The Norfolk is the plan for striking Sandown winner Elite Status and he’ll possibly even put a few others off going for the race.
That’s not the case with Noche Magica, trainer Paddy Twomey effectively confirming he’ll be dropped back to the minimum distance having appeared to be stretched by the stiff six in the Curragh’s Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes towards the end of May.
He still ran a cracking race in defeat, travelling like the best horse in the field towards the back of the pack, cruising up to lead with a furlong to go and only headed by Givemethebeatboys in the last 50 yards (replay below).
The three and three-quarter length maiden win at Cork prior to that, a race won by subsequent (unlucky) Norfolk third Crispy Cat last year, marked him down as a bright prospect and I don’t think defeat since should have dented his reputation at all.
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The 124-rated Little Big Bear is going to be a short-priced favourite for the Commonwealth Cup after successfully dropping back to sprinting at Haydock. He was impressive there but did have the significant rail bias to help on the day and those on the lookout for a big-priced Ascot alternative should consider Marbaan.
Charlie Fellowes’ horse took a few starts before producing his peak performance at two, when defeating Holloway Boy in the Vintage Stakes, and he's started this season encouragingly despite not yet adding to his tally.
After a staying-on comeback fourth in the Commonwealth Cup Trial in early-May, he was beaten just a head behind older, more established sprinter Run To Freedom (Khaadem third, Diligent Harry fourth) in a Listed race at Salisbury when last seen, and that definitely goes down as a new career-best effort.
Further progress should be on the cards from the son of Oasis Dream, who looks pretty certain to run here and could yet come up to scratch. I've backed Lezoo for this race at 16/1 already but will be looking to add Marbaan to the staking plan at some point.
Regardless of Hukum and/or Desert Crown’s participation, Deauville Legend looks dead interesting in the Hardwicke, and surely over-priced at 14s given most of the horses shorter than he in the betting are doubtful runners.
Winning at the Royal meeting first time out (for the year) is not an easy accomplishment but in most cases if you’re going there fresh then it’s due to some setback or other, whereas in this instance it was always the idea to send Deauville Legend for this race on his return to action.
He was a very progressive middle-distance horse at three and, following victory in the Great Voltigeur at York, went off favourite for the Melbourne Cup at the back end of the year. The ground completely went for him there, most of his British efforts having come on relatively quick conditions, and in the circumstances he ran really well to be fourth at Flemington.
He’s got another 5 to 7lb to find with the early favourites entered up in the Hardwicke but further improvement looks perfectly plausible this time around and he’s got previous at the meeting too having been a head second to Secret State in the King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 12 months ago.
Prices correct via oddschecker.com at 0900 BST on 08/06/23
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