Royal Ascot preview: Graham Cunningham looks ahead to the big meeting

‘THERE’S YOU YOU, THEN THERE’S THE ASCOT YOU.’

The slogan that adorned billboards, buses and taxis for last year’s Royal meeting was so good they’ve used it twice, with racegoers encouraged to embrace their inner elegance via posters showcasing various characters dressed to impress while at the launderette or tending an allotment.

“We all have a side of us that wants to go full-on glitz and glam,” says the campaign’s executive creative director Steve Howell.

But if your ‘you you’ doesn’t differ a right lot from the Ascot you then you might be preparing to go full-on blitz and slam in the betting ring. And if that’s the case then solving the following riddles might help offset heavy silk topper expenses.

Rock in a hard place for a complex Queen Anne?

Tremendous banter on Friday’s Nick Luck Daily, with John Gosden holding his preview audience rapt while reporting that he’s “leaning towards the Prince of Wales's” for last year’s Queen Anne runner-up Inspiral.

That helps the cause of the world’s highest rated turf miler Big Rock but there are reasons why last year’s runaway QEII winner can be backed at 6/1 to open the show with a bang.

Moving this colt from Christopher Head to Maurizio Guarnieri over the winter seemed a bizarre move and the Italian handler hasn’t been shooting the lights out in France of late.

In addition, Big Rock won’t have the deep ground he relishes on Tuesday and his tame reappearance in the Lockinge was hardly the launchpad his supporters were hoping for.

Put simply, backing horses to bounce back at G1 level when they’ve been beaten double digits in their prep race isn’t for me and I’m with FACTEUR CHEVAL and CHARYN - in that order.

French postie poised to deliver

The Queen Anne roll of honour is peppered with older horses who took things up a notch after failing to match the very best in earlier days and this pair both fill that bill.

Charyn’s Donny and Sandown wins gave a broad hint that he’s a different model this year and his Lockinge second – where he surged from the pack to come clear of the rest after Audience stole away – suggests that Ascot’s stiff straight mile will be perfect.

Facteur Cheval was set a lot to do when unable to land a glove on Big Rock in a QEII mudbath last October but he galloped on willingly to pip the high-class Tahiyra for second and looked better than ever beating a stellar field – including subsequent G1 winners Measured Time and Luxembourg – in the Dubai Turf at Meydan.

Jerome Reynier’s gelding is named in honour of Ferdinand Cheval, famous in French history as the rural mailman who spent 33 years collecting stones to build a spectacular mini palace in his vegetable garden over a century ago.

It may be pure coincidence that the Olympic Torch arrives to honour the painstaking postie at the Facteur Cheval palace in the southern town of Hauterives later this week.

But Reynier is bang on in summing up his stable star by saying “when you go racing with him there’s not a single doubt about him giving his best."

I don’t think Facteur Cheval has been given full credit for what he did on World Cup night. But I do think the ultra-reliable ‘Horse Postman’ can deliver a first-class performance as he bids to emulate his sire Ribchester in Tuesday’s opener.

Can Big Evs bring the big revs to Ascot again?

Mick Appleby’s colt bolted up in last year’s Windsor Castle and bids to emulate his sire Blue Point, who ran down the trailblazing Battaash twice when the King Charles III was known as the King’s Stand.

His York reappearance win proved that he’s trained on and, with nothing rated over 114 on the BHA scale, the bar is hardly set at Lady Aurelia, Blue Point or Nature Strip levels.

But, for all his attributes, Big Evs isn’t the form choice with a Timeform rating of 114. That falls to REGIONAL, who heads south with a TF 120 mark and a record of striking progress over the last year.

Ed Bethell’s gelding broke through on only his second attempt at G1 level in the Haydock Sprint Cup last September and looked as good as ever on his return under a penalty in the G2 Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh, tanking along on the pace in a fast-run race and only giving best to a Spencer swoop on Mitbaahy close home.

Bethell has been scanning weather charts hoping the ground comes up good or faster. His prayers have been answered and, in a race that is light on genuine G1 sprinters, Regional might make his 3,500gns purchase price look one of the bargains of the decade.

What happens when old foes meet in the SJP?

There’s only one thing better than having the Guineas winner in the St James’s Palace Stakes – and that’s having key Newmarket foes on deck, too. And so here, in order of wholly unscientific personal preference, are the Top 5 SJP rematches since 2000.

5: Poetic Flare and Lucky Vega in 2021:

Jim Bolger’s rugged colt got the best of a three-way go with Master of The Seas and Lucky Vega at HQ then left the latter trailing (after finishing sixth and second in the French and Irish Guineas in between) at Ascot. A tough hombre, even by Jolly Jim standards.

4: Churchill and Barney Roy in 2017:

Maybe beating Thunder Snow and Lancaster Bomber on yielding ground in the Irish Guineas had taken the edge off Churchill. Or maybe Barney Roy had benefitted from a break since stumbling as Churchill asserted at HQ. Either way, Lancaster Bomber and Thunder Snow reversed Curragh form with Churchill. And Barney proved too good for all three under a dynamic James Doyle.

3: Dawn Approach and Toronado in 2013:

A comeback to make even City Of Troy’s revival pale. A champion two-year-old under Bolger tutelage, Dawn Approach bolted up in the Guineas (with Toronado fading into fourth) only to fold tamely after pulling like a mustang in Ruler of The World’s Derby. It was a much sharper Toronado at Royal Ascot but Dawn Approach beat him again in a thriller before repeating the dose at Goodwood.

2: Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass in 2008

Raven’s Pass snagged the last legs of a compelling pentalogy in the QEII and BC Classic but Henry and Johnny (Murtagh) ruled the other three. The margin was clear as the pair finished first and fourth at HQ and narrow in the Sussex. There wasn’t much in it at Ascot either – three parts of a length – but Guineas form held up as Murtagh timed things perfectly.

1: Night Of Thunder and Kingman in 2014:

Night of Thunder floored the rusty Gosden colt at 40-1 under an inspired Kieren Fallon at HQ but, having bolted up in the Irish Guineas, Kingman took his revenge in devastating style at Ascot with that man Doyle delivering a salty ‘shush’ signal to the crowd as the brilliant Gosden colt swept clear.

And what about this year’s rematch?

Round two between Notable Speech and Rosallion provides one of the duels of the week and Henry Longfellow adds another layer of intrigue after getting stuck in heavy Paris traffic in the French Guineas.

The case for Henry rests on a runaway National Stakes success and Aidan’s ability to conjure major improvement second up, while Rosallion fans will point to the fact that he followed his fine HQ second (in the heat of the battle a shade earlier than ideal) with a gutsy Irish Guineas success.

But, having progressed from unknown newcomer to unbeaten Classic winner since January, NOTABLE SPEECH needs no excuses made.

True, the searching pace of this year’s Guineas seemed to suit him ideally but the way he breezed through to settle matters was striking. He deserves to be a short price – but I’d like him even more if he had a pacemaker to ensure a true gallop and reduce the risk of traffic issues.

Gus or the Gosden switcher in the Prince of Wales’s?

Passenger got off the PoW bus a while ago and, with White Birch a surprise absentee at the 48-hour stage, one of Europe’s most fabled G1s clearly isn’t as deep as seemed likely.

So which Auguste Rodin will turn up? Four major G1 wins last year augur well but we can’t just toss three abject no-shows and that second to White Birch in the Tatts Gold Cup was sound without screaming ‘Ascot banker.’

Aidan made one plausible point relating to rain softened ground in defence of Gus and another about a supposed “speed wobble” that seems best filed in the HNT (Highly Nebulous Tray).

Here comes another test of Ballydoyle bouncebackability but 6-4 is no bargain and, given that second favourite Inspiral was beaten double digits in the Lockinge, it might just pay to take a win and place swing at a certain Frenchie here.

Time to take a view in glorious HD?

Yes, backing horses who’ve lost six on the run to win elite G1 races is seldom a canny punting strategy but HORIZON DORE is much better than that bare sequence suggests.

It would be wrong to suggest this gelding doesn’t handle soft ground as he ran a belter, only giving best late, when chasing home King Of Steel and Via Sistina in the Champion Stakes.

Horizon Dore did well given how keen he was that day – and deep ground has blunted his pace this spring - but he took a clear step forward in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp recently, quickening from the rear only to be short headed by high-class mare Mqse De Sevigne.

Sporting Life/Timeform time guru Graeme North is a long-time Horizon Dore fan based on a series of impressive closing splits. The Bradford Elvis is a man to be reckoned with on these matters. And the 13/2 about Horizon Dore looks a very fair each way price under conditions that might just see him to maximum advantage.

Whistlejacket to prove a Norfolk chip off the old block?

It’s not hard to see why the lads (or the lass given Sue Magnier’s role in finding suitable equine monikers) chose to name this colt after the Stubbs painting once described in The Independent as “a paradigm of the flawless beauty of the Arabian thoroughbred.”

Whistlejacket doesn’t have the same flaxen mane and tail of his fiery 18th century namesake but his powerful chestnut frame is similar and he’s looked good on both starts, failing to get home behind Cowardofthecounty on deep ground over six on his debut then bounding clear of subsequent G3 scorer Arizona Blaze in a Listed race back over five at the Curragh in early May.

And, given that he’s by 2013 Norfolk winner No Nay Never out of the dam who produced 2022 Windsor Castle winner Little Big Bear, you could say Ascot is in the blood with this one.

Various smart prospects lie in wait in this year’s Norfolk but the strong-travelling Whistlejacket is already rated 106p by Timeform. And that’s bang on the level normally required to land the day three opener.

Is Kyprios the horse he used to be?

If he is then his Gold Cup rivals are probably playing for places and if he isn’t then several rivals could make life tricky for him.

In truth, I’m not confident either way.

The record reflects that Kyprios rattled off five consecutive 120 plus Timeform ratings in 2022 – including a thrilling Gold Cup success and a runaway Prix du Cadran win – but he didn’t hit the same heights after long injury break in two runs last autumn and his two wins this spring have been solid yet unspectacular.

On balance, I’m inclined to think that 4/5 about the jolly is plenty tight enough. I suspect his fans will get 5/4 on the day but I’m struggling to split his main rivals and will wait until the day before taking a fresh look.

Commonwealth Cup feeling the Doberman Pincher?

The great Frank Doberman – Google him, kids – would have one short sentence for cold hearted number crunchers on the European Pattern Committee who have warned that the CC needs a good year to avoid the risk of losing its G1 status.

And that sentence would be: “Oi, EPC. NO!”

True, the day four dash designed to cater for top three-year-olds who don’t stay the Guineas trip hasn’t always had elite depth in recent years and this year’s renewal has lost two of its G1 winners with the withdrawal of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte.

But the final field features some exciting prospects.

Inisherin, Elite Status and Jasour have BHA ratings of 113, 111 and 110 after dynamic spring victories, while the seemingly exposed Starlust (now 114) dropped a broad hint that this year’s three-year-old sprint crop could be special by giving grizzled older handicappers lumps of weight and a good hiding at York last month.

Never mind ratings – is there a bet in Friday’s race?

That’s a tough one for the simple reason that it’s easy to enthuse about four or five runners.

Inisherin impressed in appearance and performance at Haydock, Elite Status has been hit and miss but looks mustard when on song and his commanding Newbury win has already been polished more than once.

But JASOUR looks a very lively 7/1 chance indeed here. True, Clive Cox’s colt disappointed when much too free for his own good in a couple of G1s last year.

However, the way he scythed from last to first over course and distance last month (recording “a rocket-fuelled 23.14s from 3f out to 1f out” according to sectional Czar Simon Rowlands) suggests that he’s more than ready for another dig at the best in his division.

And what about Saturday’s QEII Jubilee?

‘They beat each other’ is the phrase that keeps coming to mind when studying the older members of a 1200m division that is crying out for new blood.

Kinross is near the top of the market despite failing to make the frame in the last two renewals while his old rival Art Power is another bidding to make it third time lucky in the Saturday showpiece.

Mill Stream and Shouldvebeenaring meet again after being separated by a flared nostril in the Duke of York but the door is open for a new shooter here and SHARTASH fits the bill.

This four-year-old ended his time with Johnny Murtagh on a low note but Archie Watson feels he has made huge progress since being gelded and two wins this spring lend weight to that view.

True, those wins were in minor company at Thirsk and Haydock but a Timeform mark of 118 puts Shartash close behind the best of these. Add in the prospect of further progress – and Watson’s impressive record in big sprints at the royal meeting – and it makes for a persuasive profile in a tough punting puzzle.

Who will be the Queen in a regal Coronation?

Fallen Angel's absence has reduced the number of G1 winners on show here to four but, with unlucky Newmarket Guineas third Ramatuelle and unbeaten Devoted Queen also on show, this still looks a belter.

The market reflects that there isn't much to choose between four or five fillies but Elmalka was seen to maximum advantage (aka flattered) when coming from well back in a fast-run race at HQ and if she wins again then I'll lose.

Opera Singer flashed genuine star quality when running clean away from her Boussac rivals at Longchamp last autumn and Aidan feels she can come on a bundle for her belated reappearance third in the Irish 1,000.

But 6/4 looks very skinny for a filly who was beaten almost five lengths behind Fallen Angel at the Curragh and RAMATUELLE can give the jolly plenty to think about if ridden differently to last time.

Split times show that this filly helped set the table for Elmalka to feast at Newmarket but the way she travelled and kicked before faltering late on was highly encouraging.

Oisin Murphy is almost certain to employ much more patient tactics than previous partner Aurelien Lemaitre and the round mile could also work in the favour of Christopher Head's filly, too.

Continuous thrills in store for five-day bonanza

Finally, a few random shots before I start packing the car with a penguin suit and the rest of the week’s kit and caboodle.

First, what’s happened to Ascot two-year-old races in recent years? History shows there will be a raft of smart youngsters on show but sorting the hawks from the pigeons is the devil’s own job when so many line up nowadays with just one run behind them.

Second, I’m really looking forward to seeing CONTINUOUS reappear in Saturday’s Hardwicke Stakes as last year’s Leger winner (Timeform rating of 125 with potential to progress again) could be the ace among Ballydoyle’s older horses this year.

And thirdly, it wouldn’t be Ascot if we didn’t have a few boil-overs.

Bookies were carrying it home in wheelbarrows last year with a third of the 35 winners sent off at 16/1 or bigger – including skinners like Valiant Force at 150/1 and Khaadem and Witch Hunter at 80s and 50s – and the nature of those big field races on the straight course can make winner finding very tricky.

But Royal Ascot remains the jewel in British racing’s summer crown. It’s weird and wonderful – and if you’ve got this far then I hope the Ascot You (and the You You) enjoy a mighty week both on and off the track.

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