Is a Royal winner something of a foregone conclusion on Thursday? Our man tackles all the latest tackling points ahead of day three at Ascot.
There’s many a good tune played on an old fiddle and Stradivarius bids to prove as much on Thursday when he seeks to become only the second horse in over 200 years to land a fourth Gold Cup.
They built a statue of the first one after Yeats completed his four-timer in 2009 and another could follow if the hugely popular chestnut wins his own Royal Rumble on a day which has something for everyone and a possible royal winner to mark Jubilee year.
Strad v Anno Domini
It’s a rum do when two top stayers duck each other five times in a year because conditions are deemed too fast or soft. Trueshan looks all set to miss the Gold Cup again, which would put him 4-1 up against Stradivarius in the Defection Stakes, but the question of whether the Gosden star can make it 4-4 with Yeats will dominate this year’s Gold Cup discussion.
And, for all that the Strad Army will demur, the scales are finely balanced. On one side is the chestnut’s remarkable consistency and a turn of foot that has carried him to twenty wins - seven at G1 level - and a third Yorkshire Cup last month. But on the other is the age angle and defeats on his last two Ascot visits which can be interpreted in contrasting ways.
Frankie copped it last year for getting hemmed in at a crucial point by Joey Sheridan on Princess Zoe and spat the dummy in Dylan McMonagle’s direction after another torrid trip on Champions Day. It’s fair to say Dettori can ill afford another blip, especially after Wednesday’s Lord North stalls shenanigans. But, even with smooth sailing, the ageing Strad might have his work cut out in his quest to match the mighty Yeats.
Verdict: Strad to play second (or possibly third) fiddle
Kyprios v The Burning Question
What’s not to like about Aidan’s new staying star? KYPRIOS is unexposed after just six runs. He’s closely related to noted high-class Ascot winners Free Eagle and Sapphire. He heads to Ascot in fine form after runaway wins over 1m6f at Navan and Leopardstown. And his eager galloping style gives him a strong chance of staying the Gold Cup trip.
However, all those things add up to a tight price. Kyprios looks a little bit shorter than he ought to be at 13/8 or thereabouts and if you are seeking something from way out of left field here then consider BURNING VICTORY.
True, she’s not been hitting the heights over hurdles but she thrived in three runs on the Flat last year, winning twice in France and travelling powerfully for a long way when second in the Cesarewitch. There’s no question she needs to up her game again at this level but the fact that Willie is happy to roll the G1 dice is interesting and she’s capable of running much better than the dismissive 20/1 quotes suggest
Verdict: Aim for a bit of EW Mullins Magic
Haggas Hunch v Magical Moments
Picking the right favourites to oppose is vital to a successful punting week at Ascot and this year’s Ribblesdale looks a suitable vehicle as SEA SILK ROAD moves up in class for William Haggas and Tom Marquand.
The canny Haggas is adamant that his latest Sea The Stars project was uneasy on holding ground when toughing it out at Goodwood last month and we may well see a different filly under much faster conditions.
But Jessie Harrington, who saddled the exposed Viareggio to finish third in that Listed race, rolls in with a much more dangerous rival this time as the progressive MAGICAL LAGOON steps up to a distance that ought to bring out the very best in her.
By Galileo from a fine middle-distance line that includes runaway King George winner Novellist, this filly was smart at two and looked better than ever on her Navan reappearance when going down by a whisker to Concert Hall in the Salsabil Stakes. That form has been franked by all the principals and, although it doesn’t happen often, the market makers might just have put the wrong one in as favourite here.
Verdict: Time for some Magical Thinking
David v Goliath (again)
O’Brien supplies a strong contender but Loughnane heads south with a live contender and if you think this year’s Norfolk script sounds familiar it’s because it mirrors last year to a fair extent. David came agonisingly close last year as Go Bears Go went down by a head with Aidan’s Cadamosto a close fourth and both men seem confident again.
THE ANTARCTIC has shown bright speed to win two from two and is “very strong and as wide as he is long” according to O’Brien. But Loughnane’s aim is equally true with fast youngsters and WALBANK – aka the “absolute bullet” according to his trainer – has a lot in his favour after following a fine debut second with a facile York success.
Timeform have Walbank top rated on a mark of 104p ahead of his date on the big stage. In other words, he’s already hit the level usually required to go very close in the Norfolk and his profile looks very strong for a race like this.
Verdict: Take it to the Wal-Bank
Big John v A Date At The Palace
Stoute got one in ‘98 while Cecil followed suit in 2011 and the man who replaced Sirs Michael and Henry as Newmarket’s most high-profile handler might be a suitable knighthood candidate in time. Sir John of Gosden has a certain ring to it, right enough, and providing QEII with a Royal winner in Platty Joobs year certainly wouldn’t hinder hopes of a tap on the shoulder.
Fortunately for John (and Thady, of course), the other trainers with fancied contenders have opted out. MAKSUD offers Quinella potential but REACH FOR THE MOON’s smart juvenile form is the clear best on offer and his gallant reappearance second in the Heron Stakes sets the bar at a level none of this field has come close to.
Heron winner My Prospero franked the Sandown run with a close third in the St James’s Palace in Tuesday’s St James’s Palace and the way that Reach For The Moon kept coming when headed was very encouraging. He really ought to win this for Frankie. And win it in a manner that gives snappers the shot they’ve been waiting for all week.
Verdict: Arise Sir Goz
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