Roger Varian talks Graham Clark through some of his big hopes for the new Flat season.
Roger Varian expects this season to be one of ‘rebuilding’, however his place among Flat racing’s upper echelons looks set to continue given the firepower at his disposal.
Three-time Group One winner Charyn might no longer be there to call upon, but with last year’s 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka back for more he has a top quality individual ready to pick up the baton as stable flagbearer.
Throw into mix two more talented older fillies in Ejaabiyah and Lady Of Spain, alongside last year’s John Smith’s Cup winner Enfjaar and progressive gelding French Duke, the picture at Carlburg Stables looks ever brighter.
And with a host of promising three-year-olds with untapped potential headed by Elmalka’s half brother Sallaal, who holds a clutch of top class entries next to his name, the future looks bright,
Varian said: “I think any year that you win a British Classic and train Europe’s champion miler has to be considered a good year, but we have got to try and do it all again this time around.
“I think last season gave you an insight into Charyn’s constitution and character. His ability was there for everyone to see. The way he went right through from March to November was a testament to the horse as he consistently maintained that high level of performance.
“It was very special to win the 1000 Guineas with Elmalka, and she ran some fine races afterwards without winning again, but she stays in training so we are excited about her this year.
“We are in a rebuilding year. Although we have the likes of Elmalka and Enfjaar in behind we have a lot of maiden winners or promising novice winners and of them there are horses we like. We would be unlucky for none of them to put their hands up and be pretty good. I like the two-year-olds we have as they are a lovely bunch of horses with nice pedigrees so I think the future is bright. We have a lot to look forward to.”
BOBBY BENNU
He is back in work now and I flirted with the idea of getting him qualified for All-Weather Finals Day on Good Friday, but he had a little hiccup so we decided against that. He is a nice solid horse and there is no reason he can’t be competitive in seven furlong and mile handicaps at weekend meetings.
He could possibly be one for the Victoria Cup. He might be better around a bend, but he would be ready for a Victoria Cup and it might be a nice starting point. There is a lovely programme for a horse like him with races like the Buckingham Palace Stakes and Bunbury Cup so I’m not worried about him missing Good Friday as it means he should be fresh for the season ahead.
DEFIANCE
This time last year we did think about him potentially being a Derby horse as he won his maiden and was not disgraced in the Royal Lodge. He came out at Epsom in the Blue Riband and I thought he was unlucky not to win that day. That form was franked all year by the winner, but we never really got our horse back to form.
He went to the Lingfield Derby Trial and probably suffered on those very firm conditions.
We then ran him at Royal Ascot in the King Edward VII Stakes on fast ground again and he was never the same horse. He had three months turned out, so a proper break, and he has come back in, but he won’t run this month as he is still a bit wintery. We hope he is a horse that can pick up the thread and be a fun horse. I don’t know if he is going to end up being a Stakes horse or a high grade handicapper. There should be plenty of mileage in him. We will run him somewhere in May and see where the path takes us. We believe he is still a nice horse.
ELMALKA
She only ran three times after the 1000 Guineas, but she ran three very good races. She was fourth in the Coronation Stakes where she was probably caught a bit far back and the ground was lively enough for her. She ran well in the Nassau Stakes, but I’m not quite sure she got down the hill or home on that fast ground, but she wasn’t disgraced.
She ran very well in the Sun Chariot Stakes. I’m not saying she would have won as the winner that day Tamfana was very good, but I think we were caught last in a pocket off a very steady Newmarket gallop on a track that favours pace. She stayed on and was fourth, but I think under different circumstances she would have been second best that day.
Although she didn’t win after the 1000 Guineas, for me she ran three races that marked out the Guineas wasn’t a fluke. She is from a top class family and they can get better with age. Although she is not the biggest in terms of height, she is stronger this year. I can see her taking that step forward on her overall form required to win another Group One and I think she will have a good shout at doing that.
I’ve put her in the Lockinge, but most likely we will go to Newmarket on the Sunday of the Guineas Festival for the Group Two Dahlia Stakes. That is where I would like to start her. I think nine furlongs is perfectly within her range and she has run two fine races on the Rowley Mile. I think most likely she will stay in and amongst her own sex. At the end of the day she is a 1000 Guineas winner and she deserved the entry in the Lockinge.
For some reason if she missed the Dahlia then she could always get her season started at Newbury and drop back into fillies races afterwards. I’ve not ruled going over ten furlongs again with her, but starting over nine furlongs at Newmarket kind of tells us whether we are going up to ten or back to a mile. I think the Dahlia is a lovely starting point for her and that is very much Plan A.
EJAABIYAH
I love this filly. She ran disappointingly when she went off favourite for the Lyric Stakes at York. I think she is a Stakes filly, but I don’t know what level she will slide in at. With that pedigree it would be lovely to win a Stakes race and that will be the early season priority. Anything beyond that is a bonus. She is a lovely filly to have around as a fou- year-old and this should be the year that she blooms.
We ran her in that valuable novice after finishing second at Newbury and I thought she was a filly that could go to the Irish Oaks having not had a hard race like some of those in the Ribblesdale or the Oaks, but we chose to wait for the race at York. She was not quite right when she came back from there so I think there was a physical excuse that day and I would expect to see a pretty good filly this year.
I think we will start over ten furlongs and maybe stay at that trip. She is not slow as her mare won the Golden Slipper, but Frankel gets the stamina into them. She won’t be ready until May so races like the Nottinghamshire Oaks will come too soon. I did put her in the Middleton Stakes, but that might be shooting a bit high for her first run of the year. There is a new Listed race at Haydock Park (Hedge Of Oak Stakes) that might be something to consider. If it is slightly after May that she comes out you have things like the Hoppings Stakes up at Newcastle.
ENFJAAR
He did well last year. He was unfortunate not to win at Goodwood having previously won the John Smith’s Cup up at York. He was a touch unlucky not to win the Doonside Cup up at Ayr too. He looks like a Stakes class horse and he is rated like a Stakes horse. His first season target, whether we go there fresh, or whether we get into a run into him in May, is the Wolferton at Royal Ascot and that is what we are working back from.
I think he is a real horse for that race. How he performs there will dictate how we go for the second half of the year. He has done really well and I’m sure that he will improve as a five-year-old. Ideally I would like to get a run into him, but he is the sort of horse I could get ready without having to have a run. I would love to see him line up in the Wolferton as I think he would go there as a contender.
FONDO BLANCO
He didn’t do anything wrong last year. He ran well on his debut and confirmed that by winning next time out. He could start in the seven furlong conditions race at the Craven Meeting, but equally could dip back into a novice. He is a nice horse. He has probably only run to a level of about 85 yet so we don’t know quite how good he is yet. He will find his level though.
GLEN BUCK
The plan is to take him to All-Weather Finals Day for the Easter Classic. It is a drop back in trip for him, but I think he can cope with it as he travels well in his races and he sees it out well, which you have to do at Newcastle. He is owned by the most patient man in Craig Bennett who has given him a lot of time and the horse is starting to reward him.
If he didn’t go to Finals Day there is the Magnolia Stakes at Kempton Park we could look at, but I’m not sure the sharp ten furlongs there would lend itself to him. I would be more confident coming back in trip at a track like Newcastle. I think we will probably look at going to Newcastle then try and find some Black Type for him. I think with this horse you have to go when he is well.
FRENCH DUKE
French Duke has done really well and his early season target is likely to be the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot. I then think he opens himself up to various options after that, but we will have to see how he goes at Royal Ascot first. It was a good performance from him at Goodwood as they were struggling to make up too much ground down the hill. He didn’t get lucky with his draw, and because he was drawn wide James (Doyle) had to drop him in to race professionally.
Last year he was a bit of a baby as he raced keenly. In dropping him in that day he got a couple of lengths back further than ideal, and he did well to come out the winner. I think his run at Ascot after that when he was giving The Reverend a fair chunk of weight on ground that the winner loved was another good performance. I think he would go on most surfaces, but as he is a good moving horse I think he will be best on a sounder one. He has been gelded as well, but is pretty good at home. I think it can only help him, but it certainly won’t hinder him.
IMPERIAL QUARTER
She is still in training. I thought her run behind Tamfana in the Atalanta Stakes was very good. I don’t think she is an easy filly to get in that sweet spot. If you look at her form it is a bit in and out. Sometimes she looks like a Stakes class filly then other times she looks below that level. She is from a family that has been very good to us. I trained her mother Ambivalent and her sister Teona.
This filly is Group Three placed and I think if we can just find the sweet spot in the right race then she can bring home a Stakes race and she will be worth a lot of money then. I do like her. I just don’t think I have got her right too often. I think she was right at Sandown where she had a bad passage and went three wide.
She can be a bit keen, but stays well, however she is not the sort of filly you can throw in over a mile-and-a-half and have her spit the bit out and relax. I think she is a tough filly and I think she will have her day. She won’t be ready until May as she is behind in her coat. The Hedge Of Oak Stakes up at Haydock Park could be for her.
JABAARA
She is going to run at Keeneland on Saturday in the Jenny Wiley Stakes which is a Grade One over eight-and-a-half furlongs. It is a race we have planned for a few months. We got her out at Wolverhampton in the Lady Wulfruna to blow away the cobwebs and she was unlucky not to finish closer, but the track didn’t really suit her.
She worked a few mornings ago and Jack Mitchell thought she was electric and felt she was back to her best. If you take a line through her Falmouth second and her reversal at Goodwood then she is good enough to potentially be a Grade One filly in America. We will have a go next Saturday and see how we get on. I wanted her to stay in training as I thought she was good enough to win a Stakes race. The Goodwood reversal isn’t on her CV and Sheikh Ahmed supported keeping her in training, which is great.
Once we knew she was doing so I was thinking of races like the Chartwell and to maybe go back for the Falmouth. She didn’t race after Goodwood as she went in her coat quickly. She came in her coat quickly this year and looked ready early so we came up with this idea. If this works and she runs well she could go back for a race in Saratoga in July and have a bit of an imaginative campaign.
Although she was second in the Falmouth I’m not sure she beat the best fillies around over that distance, but if she looked like being competitive in America she might be one to campaign further afield.
JOWDDAH
She has run second three times, but is a tidy filly. She is rated 83 at the moment. She should have no problem winning either a maiden or a handicap. I’m not sure how far she can go. I would love a yard full of them like her as she is very honest and has been sound, touchwood, and tries. She just might bump into one from stopping her taking the next step up.
LADY OF SPAIN
She is a lovely filly. She is an unbeaten filly with four wins, which includes a Listed success. I think she has the potential to be top drawer. She won’t be ready to start until June as she had a little setback after winning in France. I thought she might have gone to Dubai for those Group races, but she just had that little hiccup. She is behind in her work, but the time off has done her no harm as she is the most glorious looking, big, scopey filly.
I think she is between trips. When James (Doyle) won on her at Southwell he got knocked over on the rail and she had to reorganise herself. She gathered herself up and still came through and won tidily. He said he wouldn’t go much beyond the mile as she has got plenty of boot. She won the Listed race over nine and Christophe Soumillon rode her and he said you could come back to a mile or go up to ten furlongs.
There are not many nine furlong races so I would say for her first run of the year we will probably go back to a mile as she is entitled to be a bit fresh and gassy. She should be entered in the big summer races as I think she is quite good. The Duke Of Cambridge does come onto the agenda, but that would likely be her first start.
PROTEST
I like this filly. She won first time up and then she was fourth when she was just shaded out of third in the Montrose at Newmarket. She has only run the two times, but she is nice. She could possibly come back a furlong and start off in the Nell Gwyn, or she still has the option of going for a novice.
If she is not quite ready for the Nell Gwyn we could look at something like the Conqueror Stakes with her at Goodwood. So she has got options, but she is training nicely. Although she just missed out on Black Type in the Montrose I think she can achieve that for Cheveley Park and she would be very valuable if she did. She is a good moving filly and her feet hardly touch the ground so she should be suited to a good sound surface.
I think you can mark up her last start as I thought it was a good effort for a filly only having her second start. I know it is a race that lends itself to inexperienced fillies with potential, but I thought it was a good effort.
QARLYGA
She wasn’t disgraced at Kempton Park and after that run she was given a mark of 83. I think I can come back to seven furlongs with her. She could go to Yarmouth on May 1st for a Class Four seven-furlong fillies’ handicap on her next start. That might be more realistic for her. I think we can then build her career over seven furlongs.
QAZAG
He is a really nice horse, but has been a bit fragile. I’m very much looking forward to running him on turf which he hasn’t done yet. In the back of my mind he might be a horse to give a run on turf to prove himself and then possibly look at a Royal Hunt Cup with. He is a horse that I’ve not had in the sweet spot often, but he is talented.
He came back a bit sore from Newcastle, but it was a messy race and it certainly wasn’t his running. We turned him out after that. He won’t be ready until May as he has still got a winter coat. I think you can put a line through his last effort.
RAHIEBB
He has run two nice solid races. He is a slow learner, but I think he could be a progressive middle distance or staying horse. We will see where we go with him, but we might go for a mile-and-a-half novice race at Haydock Park at the end of the month. He might be one for the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot or if he looked like being a good staying horse he could be one for the Queen’s Vase. I like this horse, but he is not flash, however he doesn’t have to be as long as he gets the job done.
RIDE THE THUNDER
He finished second three times last year and has a mark of 84 to start the season with. He is a lovely horse that should be up to winning his maiden. We can then see how he progresses through the summer after that. He could potentially be one to keep an eye. He is a tidy horse and I hope he can go through the handicap ranks.
RUSSET GOLD
He improved last year without registering a win, but he put in some career high performances and got some Black Type. He will be running in similar races this year and there is no reason to think he can’t be a little better. He will probably need to be to bring one of those races home, but there is no reason he can’t. He is rated 105 so he might be a shade high for a Wokingham as you probably want to be 98 or 99 for that. I think it will probably be Stakes races for him. If he could win a Listed race we would all be delighted.
SADDADD
He is a lovely horse and he hasn’t done much wrong in two starts. He is likely to go to Newbury on Friday for the ten-furlong novice contest there. For me how he goes against those better horses under a penalty will tell us if we are going down a Derby trial route or for London Gold Cup style of races. I think he will improve when he goes over ten furlongs and when he goes on the turf.
I think he was still a bit green when he was second at Kempton Park the last day. I only ran him there to tell me if I should be training him as a miler or a middle-distance horse. He answered that question and Jack (Mitchell) gave him a lovely ride as he was not too hard on him and he just did enough to get a bit more education into him. I think ten furlongs will be his trip, but he might even stay a bit further.
SALLAAL
He is Elmalka’s half-brother who won his only start at Yarmouth. I don’t think the form is special, but it was a run, knowing where I am with the horse, that pointed him out as being quite good. He is bred to be good as he's also a half-brother to Benbatl, and out of Nahrain, who was a dual Group One winner. I’ve put him in the 2000 Guineas and he is in the Derby. I’m just feeling my way now where to start with him.
I think he is going to be a ten furlong horse, but whether he has got the pace for a 2000 Guineas I don’t know. I suppose the way to find out is to run him in either the Craven or the Feilden as a starting point and not be concerned if got beat. We could have that dictate where he goes. We won the Feilden with a nice horse called Eydon a few years ago and he finished fourth in the 2000 Guineas afterwards.
You could run well in either of those two races and not look like a 2000 Guineas horse then go for the Dante or another Derby trial. I think he is very good, but he is unproven yet and I don’t want to set the bar too high and for the bubble to burst.
SHADOW DANCE
He has had a setback. He is back in training and the hope is we can get a run into him before the Ebor. I would love to see him line up in the Ebor. That was always his end goal, but we would have loved to have gone to Royal Ascot for a Duke Of Edinburgh, but he won’t make that.
When he won the mile-and-a-half handicap at York last season I said to his ownership group we have got to try and get back here for the Ebor as I think he would love that extra two furlongs and he is an uncomplicated horse. That is still the plan, but unfortunately it will be a quiet campaign until then.
SOVEREIGN SEA
He is a nice horse that has paid his way over the all-weather. He has been a little unlucky not to win more than one race. He is on a little break now as we want him for the summer months. He has had four runs over the winter and you have to fill up at some point otherwise you don’t get through the summer. I think there is mileage in his mark when he goes on the turf and probably up to ten furlongs.
TYRRHENIAN SEA
There is not a lot for him on the all-weather and I’m probably going to run him at Sandown in the Group Two bet365 Mile as he is a dual Listed winner. We are training his sister for the Niarchos Family and anything he can get on his CV only enhances her page too. We will see how he fares against those better horses on turf. He has not run much on grass, not through design, but because he got injured at the wrong time of year where it lent itself to a winter campaign opposed to a summer one.
Looking back through that Sandown race there was an eight-year-old called Sovereign Debt who won it so he has a year on him. The way this horse is moving I think he is in the form of his life. It would be quite fun to find out what he can do on turf. I think he can translate his form from the all-weather to the turf, but whether he can do that at Group Two level is another question.
He has been winning Listed races on the all-weather and this will be a different test as he will be lining up against some of the best milers who are using it as a stepping stone to the Lockinge and Queen Anne.
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