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Ripon, Newmarket and Newbury Tips: Best Value Bets for Saturday August 17
Matt Brocklebank is back with a look ahead to Saturday's ITV Racing and he's got tips for Ripon, Newbury and Newmarket.
Value Bet tips: Saturday August 17
1pt win Archduke Ferdinand in 2.05 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Kuwait City in 2.25 Newbury at 17/2 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Kitai in 3.20 Ripon at 9/1 (General)
1pt win Rock Opera in 3.20 Ripon at 16/1 (General)
City slicker from off the pace
Newbury is the base for ITV Racing this weekend but there’s not a lot being missed in the markets for either of the two Group races – the BetVictor Hungerford Stakes or the opening BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes in which Al Aasy seems likely to go off odds-on.
Kikkuli could be different class in the Hungerford if back to the form of his Jersey effort when just chinned by (the penalised) Haatem at the Royal meeting but he needs to bounce straight back after a lesser effort when sent off favourite for the Prix Jean Prat on easier ground at Deauville.
Trainer Harry Charlton hasn’t had a winner in August yet, but the yard hasn’t really sent out any fancied runners prior to this one so it will be interesting to see how Kikkuli fares as Charlton is bound to have a few runners at York next week too.
Elsewhere, The Big Board is favourite for the Play The BetVictor Predictor Now Handicap but she’s not one I’d be banking on to build on the short-head second at Ascot last time. Her C.V. contains a couple of no-shows after a promising effort or win, so I’m happy to oppose the filly despite still looking well handicapped on 2023 form following a 3lb rise for Ascot.
Away from The Big Board, I’d make this a wide-open sprint and the one to chance at a bigger price is KUWAIT CITY.
The first thing to note is that his profile is arguably even more peppered with in-and-out performances but we’re not being asked to take a short price about this one and I do think the York run last month can be excused as he missed the break (not completely unusual for him to do so) and was left in a near-impossible position to even get close on the Knavesmire.
Dropping back to a stiff five furlongs should be workable, especially as there’s plenty of early pace on through McLoven, Myconian, Faustus and one or two others which should result in the leaders eventually coming back to a hold-up horse like Kuwait City.
Decent ground is a plus for the four-year-old and he seems to get on well with Jim Crowley, who is a good man to have on side when it comes to delivering a slow starter from off the back of a strong gallop.
Dropped 2lb for his latest display, the selection runs off 2lb lower than when winning narrowly at Yarmouth on his seasonal comeback in April and he won off an even higher mark last spring so is clearly on the right side of the assessor.
I've liked the look of Zabriskie Point for the TPT Fire Handicap since the initial entries were made but ignoring prices and simply backing horses you fancy going well has never been the best policy. I can let him go at 7/1 or thereabouts.
I don’t want to lose if he does deliver, though, so will pass on the race entirely, especially as the other one I like – Lethal Levi – is even shorter, so I’ll focus up north where there are two more televised sprint handicaps to consider.
Kit to bag rail and may hold on
The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap looks an ideal target for the well-treated KITAI and, after strong support for the likes of Dare To Hope and Wobwobwob through Friday, I definitely want her on side at 9/1 as I thought she’d be the one for money but the price has held up.
Formerly with Charlie Johnston, she won handicaps off marks of 80 and 85 before seemingly losing her way, including when tried in Listed company, but there were signs of a resurgence on third start for Mick Appleby at Newmarket last month and the switch back to forceful tactics clearly paid off at Goodwood.
She had to do plenty of her own donkey-work near the stands' side there, away from the majority of horses who followed her home out towards the centre, and it could be a similar story this weekend with stall two effectively making jockey Joanna Mason’s mind up for her in terms of where to attack.
It’ll be Ripon's far side rail for Kitai and, as we've seen in this race and countless other sprint handicaps on the track, front-runners can sometimes be very hard to peg back if getting the tempo right. Mason is riding with some real confidence at the moment so I’m encouraged by that booking (takes over from Jason Watson) and a 3lb rise for Goodwood means the horse remains perfectly well-treated running off 83.
If there’s loads of competition for the lead, and Kitai may not get it all her own way with the likes of Radio Goo Goo and Ramazan expected to at least keep her honest, then I'm keen to have a second string to the bow and a late pace collapse would really suit ROCK OPERA.
Richard Fahey’s apparent fourth-string (according to the market) has already had a busy year but he’s evidently thriving on his racing and continues to head the right way, based on the Doncaster win in June and Sky Bet Dash third at York last month.
He’s set to turn out quickly following another encouraging effort on Thursday evening’s Racing League card at Windsor, where out the back early before running on late when the race was over.
The first two home were prominent throughout on that occasion so Rock Opera's effort should be marked up and, although still 4lb higher than when last successful, he held his form deep into 2023 and I’m convinced there’s even better to come when everything drops his way.
Saturday might be a perfect scenario and having a hold-up horse along with a prominent racer in the same big-field handicap feels like a reasonable cover-shot.
Ferdinand primed for HQ target
Quicker the ground the better for ARCHDUKE FERDINAND and it wouldn’t be any sort of surprise to see him run well in the Jenningsbet Grey Horse Handicap with conditions to suit at Newmarket.
Originally trained in Sweden and a winner during his time with Tracy Waggott, he’s now in the care of Seb Spencer who has only had a couple of winners all year but doesn’t have many horses in fairness and this one looks in pretty good nick again.
His two poor runs after a short-head second at Newcastle on his reappearance were consigned to the past when beaten just a length and a half over a mile back at Gosforth Park towards the end of June, while his latest effort at York was a cracking display as a fast six furlongs there was always going to be on the sharp side.
He has won from six to a mile but seven furlongs looks his ideal trip these days and he’s fairly handicapped again being a pound lower than for his agonising comeback defeat back in April and just 3lb higher than when a comfortable winner over this trip at Doncaster last summer.
Top of the ground obviously helps and I like the booking of Alex Jary (one win and one second from just four rides for the yard) as his 5lb claim could come in very handy this weekend.
Archduke Ferdinand looks likely to sit close to the pace, which is never a bad thing on the July Course, and cheekpieces going on for the first time this year may help spark a little more improvement, for all that he was unplaced on his only previous outing in such headgear.
Published at 1600 BST on 16/08/24
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