We look at the most convincing recent stats to try and unearth the winner of the 2024 Randox Grand National.
Only 2 of the past 39 winners had won or placed in the Grand National previously
It’s really tough to run well in the race and then come back and win it. Only Amberleigh House (2004) and Tiger Roll (2019) have won or placed in the race before winning it from the last 39 winners so let’s rule out some fancied horses early.
Out go Corach Rambler, Vanillier, Noble Yeats and Delta Work.
13 of the past 15 winners were having their first start in the race
Gone are the days when the Aintree factor was vital. Easier fences mean newcomers to the race are not at the disadvantage they once were and the stats suggest you’re much better off having a horse on side who has not tried their luck in the race before.
Out go Mr Incredible, Capodanno, Galvin, Coko Beach, Ain’t That A Shame and Roi Mage.
The past eight winners were aged 9 or younger
Age and experience used to be a good thing in the National but the changing nature of the race has seen the younger horses come to the fore. Corach Rambler made it eight in a row for horses with single-digit ages and it’s unexposed youth that you seemingly need on your side these days.
Out go Minella Indo, Latenightpass, Conflated, Foxy Jacks, Shakem Up’Arry, Chambard, Eklat De Rire, Eldorado Allen, Janidil, Mac Tottie and Run Wild Fred.
13 of the past 18 winners had won over 3m1f+
Stamina has become more important even with the race shortening in length and with testing conditions looking certain come Saturday you’ll want a horse that isn’t lacking in staying power. Thirteen of the past 18 winners had proven their stamina by previously winning over 3m1f+.
Out go Meetingofthewaters, Panda Boy, Mahler Mission, Limerick Lace, Galia Des Liteaux, Chemical Energy, Farouk D’Alene, Glengouly, The Goffer and Minella Crooner.
19 of the past 24 winners were Irish bred
This stat includes 11 of the past 13 so there really is a modern dominance towards the Irish-bred horses, so let’s rule out the remaining French and GB-bred runners.
Out go I Am Maximus, Kitty’s Light and Nassalam.
That leaves a shortlist of four to pick from based on the stats…
STATTLER and ADAMANTLY CHOSEN for Willie Mullins...
ADAMANTLY CHOSEN looks the pick of these two given owner Ronnie Bartlett recently stated Stattler wouldn't run unless there was some 'good' in the going description.
An impressive winner over 3m2f on soft ground at Down Royal on his latest start, Adamantly Chosen looks a good bet to be suited by the trip and is available at 50/1.
DESERTMORE HOUSE and MALINA GIRL (who still need a few horses to come out to get a run)...
Both DESERTMORE HOUSE and MALINA GIRL would have to be considered should either sneak into the race.
Martin Brassil's Desertmore House is a Kerry National winner who had a hurdles prep last time out, while Malina Girl won over almost 3m4f on soft ground at Cheltenham earlier this season.
*All stats courtesy of the Weatherbys Grand National Festival Betting Guide
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