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Racing's unluckiest losers | Dancing Brave, Dayjur and Hawk Wing
Timeform look back on three memorable Flat races that featured a high-profile unlucky loser.
Dancing Brave - 1986 Derby
Build-up
Dancing Brave only won a couple of minor events on his two juvenile starts, but he still spent the winter as favourite for the 2000 Guineas, with his trainer, Guy Harwood, reportedly holding him in the highest esteem.
His position at the head of the betting for the Guineas was consolidated by a ready success in the Craven Stakes on his reappearance, and those who had backed him into 15/8 favouritism never had a moment’s concern in the opening classic of the season, where Dancing Brave displayed what would become his trademark turn of foot to see off Green Desert by three lengths.
The main danger to the 2/1 favourite, according to the Derby betting, was Shahrastani, who had won the Classic Trial at Sandown and the Dante Stakes at York on his first two starts as a three-year-old, notably beating the Chester Vase winner Nomrood on the second occasion.
Whilst Dancing Brave still had his stamina to prove, Shahrastani looked sure to relish the extra distance in his bid to provide trainer Michael Stoute and jockey Walter Swinburn with their second win together in the race after Shergar five years earlier.
The race
The early gallop in the 1986 Derby was very much on the steady side, with Nomrood leading the way. Swinburn had Shahrastani positioned close to the pace in fifth, while the experienced Greville Starkey had Dancing Brave settled towards the rear.
Little changed in the running order before they descended towards Tattenham Corner, but the complexion of the race soon began to take shape on the downhill run. While Swinburn was readying Shahrastani to kick on, Starkey was forced to angle out wide on Dancing Brave, who was going to have to find his way past all but a handful of the other 16 runners to win.
Although not initially picking up for pressure, Shahrastani got to the front over two furlongs out. Dancing Brave, chivvied along by Starkey since Tattenham Corner, was by now picking off rivals down the extreme outside. However, the scale of the challenge he still faced was beginning to look insurmountable, with commentator Graham Goode putting it best when he famously said: “Dancing Brave starting to motor, but oh, so much to do!”
For those watching on TV at home, the camera angle changed shortly before the runners entered the final furlong, by which point Dancing Brave had just about moved to the front of the chasing pack behind Shahrastani, who still had a couple of lengths in hand.
Dancing Brave continued to eat into that advantage throughout the final furlong, but, inside the final 50 yards, it became clear that he wasn't going to get there, Shahrastani still half a length clear at the winning post. Swinburn saluted the crowd as he crossed the line, though in a few more strides he'd have more than likely been caught.
Swinburn revealed afterwards that it had always been the plan to try and get first run on Dancing Brave, giving his strong-staying mount the best chance of success, and he certainly deserved his fair share of credit for executing those tactics to perfection.
It was clear to all those who saw it that the best horse had not won the race, though, and Starkey was inevitably apportioned most of the blame for a losing ride that he is remembered for perhaps above all else, despite a career in the saddle that featured 1,989 winners (including five classics).
The aftermath
At the time, it was entirely feasible that his Derby reversal would undermine Dancing Brave's achievements. Fortunately for him, though, he was one of the finest thoroughbreds ever to stand on four legs, and Epsom ultimately represented one of only two defeats throughout his career.
The other would be in the Breeders' Cup Turf on his final start, but by then he'd won the Guineas, the Eclipse, the King George and, most famously, the Arc. Incidentally, Pat Eddery took over the ride on Dancing Brave for both the King George (when he reversed the form with Shahrastani) and the Arc, denying Starkey of his best chances at redemption.
Only six horses, namely Frankel (147), Sea-Bird (145), Brigadier Gerard (144), Tudor Minstrel (144), Abernant (142) and Ribot (142) have achieved a higher Timeform rating on turf than Dancing Brave who earned a rating of 140.
Dayjur - 1990 Breeders' Cup Sprint
Build-up
Dayjur’s domestic achievements en route to the Breeders’ Cup make for impressive reading, with his five-race winning sequence during the summer of 1990 identifying him as one of the highest-rated sprinters in the Timeform era.
Dayjur won only two of his first five outings (one of which came over seven furlongs) but didn’t look back after that, winning the Temple, the King’s Stand, the Nunthorpe, the Sprint Cup and the Prix de l’Abbaye on successive outings as a three-year-old.
The final race of his career would be in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Belmont Park, where many people were happy to write off Dayjur’s chances of completing a brilliant six-timer as he had never raced on dirt or around a turn.
The race
Dayjur was attempting to succeed where Green Desert, Committed, Double Schwartz and eight others from Europe had failed against the home-based specialists since the Breeders’ Cup series began in 1984.
The son of Danzig’s challenge was made tougher still by his wide draw, which put even more of a premium on him making an alert exit from the gates, ensuring that he wouldn’t be left trailing in the wake of some of the fastest sprinters that America had to offer.
In the event, however, Dayjur showed sparkling early speed to get across from the widest stall of all, finding himself on terms with the early pacesetter Safely Kept – the 1989 runner-up who had won each of her previous six starts in 1990 – by halfway.
The pair were embroiled in a thrilling battle from there, pulling well clear of the rest, but the most pivotal moment of the race didn’t come until deep inside the final furlong.
Willie Carson’s mount had just gained a narrow lead when he spied the shadow of the Belmont grandstand and tried to jump it. Breaking stride cost Dayjur the advantage, and there was no time to recover; he was even shying at another shadow as he passed the post a neck down.
The answer to the question “why was Dayjur unlucky?” is self-explanatory when watching the replay, and there was certainly nothing that Carson could have done to prevent Dayjur’s antics, despite many pointing out that his mount had also been somewhat spooked in the closing stages of the Prix de l’Abbaye on his previous start.
“I blamed that on him not having a race in France,” Carson told reporters immediately after the Breeders’ Cup defeat. “He was very relaxed and lost concentration, but there was no reason for him to lose concentration today because I’d just given him a couple of backhanders to set him about his business – the race was over.”
The aftermath
Dayjur may have met with defeat on his final start, but it was an unlucky one – about as unlucky as you can get – and did little to damage his reputation, subsequently retiring to his owner’s Shadwell Farm in Kentucky as the winner of seven of his 11 starts and over £467,000 in prize money.
He was nominated by Dick Hern as the best sprinter he'd ever trained and by Carson as the best sprinter he'd ever ridden, high praise indeed from two men who were at the top of their respective professions and who'd been associated with so many top-class performers over the years.
As far as Timeform's ratings are concerned, Abernant (142), who won the July Cup, the Nunthorpe and the King George all twice, and Pappa Fourway (139), who won the King’s Stand, the July Cup and the Diadem as a three-year-old, are the only other sprinters rated above Dayjur. Incidentally, Princely Gift, Right Boy and Moorestyle were all rated the same as Dayjur on 137.
The course record Dayjur set when winning the Nunthorpe stood for the best part of 30 years before Battaash – who was also owned by Sheikh Hamdan – lowered it with a blistering success in a time of 55.90 seconds in 2019, when his winning margin of three and three quarter lengths was also the widest in the race since Dayjur’s four-length success.
Hawk Wing - 2002 2000 Guineas
Build-up
Hawk Wing won three of his four starts in Ireland as a two-year-old, including the National Stakes at the Curragh, and his reputation at Ballydoyle was seemingly second to none, even if his form had been arguably a little behind that of the Grand Criterium/Dewhurst winner Rock of Gibraltar (the only horse to have beaten Hawk Wing as a two-year-old).
At the stable's open day, it wasn't Rock of Gibraltar's or High Chaparral's name – or even that of the top two-year-old of 2001 Johannesburg – that was on trainer Aidan O'Brien's lips. “It's a dream, but if we have a Triple Crown winner, it's Hawk Wing,” O'Brien was quoted as saying.
The public duly took note as Hawk Wing dominated the ante-post betting for the first classic of the season – the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket – and he was ultimately sent off the 6/4 favourite in a field of 22, with Rock of Gibraltar only fourth best at 9/1.
The race
The field soon split into three groups as the stalls opened for the 2000 Guineas. The early pace wasn't strong but Darryll Holland notably made a beeline for the far-side rail aboard Redback, who held the advantage in that group after shifting across from stall 16. Other riders were less premeditated, restraining their mounts more than usual early on while assessing how the race might be shaping up.
Not far into the Guineas, it was clear that the largest group up the centre, which included Hawk Wing, was trailing the other two. This spelt danger for the favourite. As the race unfolded, Redback kicked for home over two furlongs out against the rail, where Rock of Gibraltar, drawn highest in stall 22, began his move in the same group. Soon after, Jamie Spencer, who had dropped Hawk Wing out from stall 10 was still sitting confidently as Hawk Wing moved easily under him approaching the Dip.
Once finally unleashed Hawk Wing responded magnificently, storming clear of his group and producing a turn of foot rarely seen in a classic. Fatefully, however, the line came too soon, and Hawk Wing was still a neck down on his stablemate Rock of Gibraltar, the two still racing half the width of the track apart.
His spectacular late surge may have failed to win him the Guineas, but Hawk Wing’s reputation blossomed in defeat more than any horse beaten in a classic since Dancing Brave in the Derby in 1986. For most at Newmarket, or among those watching on television either at home or in betting shops, the issue probably wasn't whether or not Hawk Wing should have won the Guineas, but by how far.
Some tried to play down the impression Hawk Wing had made in the Guineas, making out that the camera angle shown on TV had exaggerated the ground he had made. The sectional times for the race provide independent confirmation, however, of what Hawk Wing achieved at Newmarket, and confirm that the run of the race counted against him compared to Rock of Gibraltar.
The sectional times suggest that Naheef was a reluctant leader of Hawk Wing's group, setting a sluggish pace mid-race, and show that Hawk Wing was much the strongest finisher overall, as he came five lengths clear of the remainder of his group, headed by the smart Aramram.
Hawk Wing made up several lengths on Rock of Gibraltar in the final three furlongs, the vast majority of it in the final furlong alone; the lack of pace early on made the effort all the more remarkable.
The aftermath
Rock of Gibraltar improved markedly from Newmarket and continued to sweep all before him over a mile, notably becoming the first horse to win seven Group 1 races on the bounce when taking the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. By contrast, Hawk Wing won only one of his five subsequent starts as a three-year-old – when justifying odds-on favouritism in the Eclipse – but much better was to come when he returned the following year.
Indeed, his reappearance in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury saw him produce a spectacular display to take the field apart by 10 lengths. That performance fulfilled all the hopes entertained for him both before and after his unlucky defeat in the 2000 Guineas, whilst the Timeform rating (136) he achieved that day identifies him as still the highest-rated horse trained by Aidan O’Brien.
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