Racing Tips: Royal Ascot Timefigure preview

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Sat June 18, 2022 · 2y ago

Timefigure expert Graeme North returns to preview the pick of the action from Royal Ascot on Saturday.

Timefigure Royal Ascot Day 5 selections

Back Legend Of Xanadu in the Chesham (2.30) 'without Alfred Munnings'

Back Finn’s Charm in the Chesham (2.30) 'without Alfred Munnings'

Back Blackrod in the Wokingham (5.00)

Back Groundbreaker e.w. in the Golden Gates (5.35)

Ascot’s final day kicks off as usual with the Chesham Stakes and in a race where every runner is unexposed, Aidan O’Brien’s Alfred Munnings is priced up as though he is a good thing.

He created a very favourable impression on his debut at Leopardstown, winning by four and a half lengths, and being a Dubawi half-brother to the dual Oaks winner Snowfall has the pedigree to match his sky-high home reputation.

Clearly, it will be no surprise if he goes on to provide his trainer with a sixth win in the last eleven renewals, but there was nothing flash about either his winning timefigure (49) or his sectional upgrade (12) at Leopardstown and that makes me think there might well be value elsewhere in the market.

Indeed, the one thing that unites all the runners other than Legend Of Xanadu and the newcomer Holloway Boy is that all the races they have run in so far have been steadily or slowly run and other than one race, which we’ll come to shortly, the upgrades that accompany them haven’t been spectacular either.

That makes me think that the one horse who has run fast – Legend Of Xanadu – has to be of interest. A repeat of his 97 timefigure at Epsom in the Woodcote Stakes won’t be good enough to win this, but it would have come very close to winning two of the last ten renewals and this doesn’t strike me right now as a vintage renewal.

What he does have in his favour, though, is that he’s battle-hardened and progressive and, being a full brother to a mile-and-a-half winner by Sixties Icon, seems sure to improve for the step up to seven furlongs for the first time. The other horse I’m keen to have on my side is Finn's Charm.

He has just over half a length to make up with Faisal Charm on their debut meeting at Yarmouth last month, but whereas the winner hasn’t run again since Finn’s Charm looked much improved at Musselburgh last time, bossing an admittedly modest field but posting a 43lb upgrade that added to his 63 timefigure puts him potentially not far short of the likes of good recent winners of this race such as Pinatubo and Point Lonsdale.

Both can be backed each way at 18/1 in the outright market but if Alfred Munnings is anywhere near as good as the grapevine suggests then I’d rather play safer and back them around 17/2 and 9/1 in the market without the favourite.

Noble Truth looks short in the market for the Jersey Stakes, less on his ability which is there for all to see but more on his excitable nature and tendency to race freely which might be exaggerated by the preliminaries. Who to take him on with is problematical, however, given there is much of a muchness between so many of his rivals on the clock and given his own credentials on that score aren’t outstanding either, I can leave this race alone.

Dual Classic winner Hurricane Lane is a standout on the clock in the Hardwicke Stakes partnered by the rider I consider to be the best over the mile-and-a-half course here, William Buick, but odds of 4-5 on the back of an eight-month layoff means this is another race to sit back and enjoy.

The Platinum Jubilee Stakes is arguably the race of the year so far. Twenty-seven runners that sees challengers from Australia, Ireland, Japan and America mix it up with some of the best of the home-trained sprinters and milers will make a for a corking spectacle, but in the absence of timefigure information for the Australian and Japanese contingent, this is another I’ll be sitting out not least given how dominant the Australian runner Nature Strip was in the King Stand the other day.

The leaders on time in the Wokingham, Ayr Gold Cup winner Bielsa and Rockingham winner Urban Beat are drawn on opposite sides of the track but for all they will appreciate this large-field cavalry charge, neither have hit top form yet this season.

It’s no surprise to see Fresh at the head of the market given his course record but I’m keen on the chances of Blackrod who ran really well for a three-year-old when third behind Bielsa at Ayr and has maintained his progress this year with a ready win in a large-field handicap at Newmarket in a very good time.

Fast ground is no problem for him, a stiff six furlongs is ideal and there is pace all around him in the high numbers. His trainer Michael Dods will no doubt have had this race pencilled in for Blackrod since last year and I’ll be surprised if he’s not contesting Group races before the year is out.

This column uncovered the winner of the Golden Gates last year with Foxes Tales and I can see Andrew Balding going close again with Groundbreaker, whose profile isn’t dissimilar to Foxes Tales having underperformed in a Listed race after winning his maiden.

Clearly there are dangers everywhere you look with James Ferguson’s Missed The Cut in particular catching the eye with the progress he has made this year in wide-margin wins at Pontefract and Salisbury, but Groundbreaker’s finishing sectionals at Doncaster were particularly impressive, not least those for the last two furlongs, suggesting he was a lot better than even the four lengths back to runner-up Surrey Knight would suggest, and his run at Newmarket subsequently behind Ottoman Fleet can be ignored as he raced too freely.

This much bigger field and return to handicap company looks just the ticket, and though he’ll need to improve there’s enough in place to think he will do so, certainly enough to justify each-way support.

Published at 1530 BST on 17/06/22

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