Qipco 2000 Guineas analysis | Can City Of Troy be beaten in season’s first Classic?

Can we get City Of Troy beaten?

Branded ‘our Frankel’ by Coolmore in the aftermath of his Dewhurst success, City Of Troy went into the winter as a hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas and has hardened as market leader this spring without racing. With his juvenile form emphatically franked in the Craven Stakes, undoubtedly the most important aspect of all the trials, and reports of good homework emanating out of Ballydoyle, his shortening into 4/6 is perfectly understandable.

After all, it wasn’t just what he did at two, which was impressive enough, but what he could do once he turned three, given he’s by an American Triple Crown winner in Justify and out of a Galileo mare. Such breeding gives great hope that he’ll train on to be even better in his Classic season, for all that we don’t know an awful lot about the progression of Justify progeny just yet, and his own dam, Together Forever, disappointed as a three-year-old following her own Group 1-winning juvenile campaign.

However, as a juvenile City Of Troy didn’t have the physical appearance of one who would stop progressing at two and he certainly wasn’t campaigned like that type of horse, turning out for his debut on July 1 and running just three times as a juvenile all told. His Superlative Stakes win was just that and his dominant Dewhurst success [Rowley Mile box ticked] on softer ground, which Aidan O’Brien was at pains to stress wouldn’t be ideal, was so good that nobody flinched when 5/4 quotes were bandied about for the Guineas back in the middle of October.

Track bias can play a part in a 2000 Guineas, but a likely relatively small field reduces the chances of another Rock Of Gibraltar v Hawk Wing situation quite significantly, while the weather looks set to produce ideal good to soft ground, for all that he’s proven on more testing conditions after his Dewhurst win anyway. He can lead or sit off a leader, but setting a strong gallop looks a likely play, while Aidan O’Brien’s average strike-rate (by his standards) in the early weeks of the season is nothing new or concerning when it comes to examining his Guineas hopefuls.

Weighing everything up, including the opposition which we’ll get into below, this looks an extremely good chance for City Of Troy to kick off his Classic campaign with a Guineas victory and the punter in me is very lukewarm about taking him on. This is horse racing and short-priced Guineas favourites have been turned over before, but I wouldn’t bet on City Of Troy becoming another one.

Who is the biggest danger to City Of Troy?

Let’s not pretend the market hasn’t got this spot on as the clear second favourite, Rosallion, is quite obviously the biggest danger on all known form. His win in Listed company at Ascot at the end of July has been franked everywhere you look by the horses who followed him home and he had genuine excuses when too keen in a muddling Champagne Stakes at Doncaster where Iberian turned him over.

It was his win in the Group 1 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on October 1 that marked him out as a genuine top-notcher and, if the Guineas turned into a sprint in the final quarter mile, then Rosallion, by Blue Point and blessed with a turn of pace, could be the one to sink hot favourite City Of Troy.

Trainer Richard Hannon and jockey Sean Levey could hardly contain their glee when stablemate Haatem won the Craven Stakes, making clear his position in the pecking at order at home behind Rosallion, while the pedigree on Rosallion's dam’s side is giving every indication that he has it in his blood to stay a mile.

To do that, though, he will likely have to settle better than he did in the Champagne Stakes and at Longchamp to get home, while his hold-up tactics, designed to save his energy for a finishing burst, might not work so well on the Rowley Mile, a course on which he is unproven. He has a bit to find with City Of Troy on form, but the keenness/track suitability question mark explains the price discrepancy between himself and the favourite better than anything else. From what we saw of them as juveniles, City Of Troy looks the more straightforward and relaxed horse.

Who appeals most from the other unbeaten contingent?

City Of Troy is not the only unbeaten colt in the race and, indeed, he’s not the only unbeaten colt in the race from his yard. However, Henry Longfellow, left in at the five-day stage, is reportedly set for the French 2000 Guineas, which leaves three non-Ballydoyle unbeaten colts in the Guineas; Notable Speech for Charlie Appleby, Night Raider for Karl Burke and Ghostwriter for Clive Cox.

Neither Night Raider nor Notable Speech have ever raced on turf, never mind at Newmarket, yet both were deeply impressive in moderate races for their Guineas prep, hence their presence in the top five in the betting. Notable Speech looks the more likely to play a leading role out of the pair and might even have taken in a turf trial had we been granted a drier spring, while Night Raider, another smart prospect, even if this comes too soon, looks a likely important pace angle in the race.

Ghostwriter looks the horse from the trio most likely to show up well in this race, however. Clive Cox’s horse, like Rosallion, first showed his spark over seven furlongs at Ascot, winning easily despite hurdling the shadow of the grandstand inside the closing stages, and he put that experience to good use when running out a well-backed and comfortable winner of the Royal Lodge at Newmarket after that.

Strong enough to win over a mile at two, it could be that he’s a 10-furlong horse or more going forward, and that makes him potentially vulnerable to City Of Troy and Rosallion. There’s no doubt he looks a talented horse himself, though, you only have to watch the way he tanked through the Royal Lodge to see that, and he had the size and scope at two to suggest he’d make up into a proper three-year-old this year.

What else is worth a mention in the 2000 Guineas?

It will be fascinating to see how the Too Darn Hot three-year-olds get on this season and the first significant cab off that rank will be Alyanaabi for Owen Burrows and Shadwell. Beaten by both Rosallion and City Of Troy as a juvenile, he will obviously have to improve to trouble the big two but he’s got a miler’s pedigree being related to 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati and he’s an interesting each-way angle into the race.

Charlie Hills’ Iberian will be considered each-way by plenty, too, given he beat Rosallion in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, even if the Hannon horse pulled his chance away that day. Iberian had previously finished a length second to Haatem in the Vintage Stakes, though, which suggested he had his work cut out to get near City Of Troy and so it proved in the Dewhurst, where he was beaten nine lengths. He’s got to improve a lot on that form.

Finally, Task Force has been my idea of the best each-way alternative against City Of Troy ever since he finished a running-on second behind Vandeek in the Middle Park. Certainly bred for a Guineas, being by Frankel out of Special Duty, he is expected to improve over the mile trip but the big negative for him is the slow start to the year for the Ralph Beckett yard, who returned two winners from 36 runners in March and April, while he’s reported some of his Classic hopefuls haven’t come forward in the spring as he would’ve liked.

That’s significant heading into any Guineas, never mind one featuring the talent that is City Of Troy.

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