Ten-year trends and statistics for QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket

Horse Racing

Sun May 06, 2018 · 7y ago

Matt Brocklebank highlights the key stats from the last 10 renewals of the QIPCO 1000 Guineas ahead of Sunday's Newmarket Classic.

Group One winner – 4/10

Group One winners in Group One races clearly have an edge in terms of class but it's evidently not essential to have already struck at the highest level when it comes to the QIPCO 1000 Guineas.

There's no shortage of proven top-class performers in this year's renewal, with Happily, Wild Illusion and Laurens all previous G1 winners, and Madeline boasting placed form at the top table.

Happily is the only dual Group One scorer having taken the Moyglare and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, and the latter piece of form reads well with third home Masar winning the Craven Stakes last month.

The most obvious potential improvers stepping up in class are seemingly Soliloquy, who bolted up in the Group Three Nell Gwyn and Liquid Amber, who did the same in the Group Three Flame Of Tara Stakes at the Curragh when last seen in August, though the latter falls short on another couple of factors.

Three runs or more – 9/10

Only the exceptional Ghanaati has been able to win the Guineas after just two starts in the past 10 years and Blue Bunting is the only other winner not have had at least four starts under their belt.

Last year's winner Winter had made four starts in public with the mean average of starts for the past 10 winners reading 5.6.

It could be argued the 13-raced Homecoming Queen skews that stat slightly but Sky Lantern had seven runs and Natagora eight, so experience is clearly no barrier to success in the 1000 Guineas.

So six runs at two certainly shouldn't be putting anyone off the market leader Happily, while the others to have had half a dozen attempts are Anna Nerium, Madeline, Sizzling and Billesdon Brook.

According to the trends, the Guineas could be coming too soon for Worship, Vitamin, Sarrocchi and Liquid Amber, while another run might have been preferred for fans of Soliloquy, I Can Fly, Wild Illusion and Dan's Dream.

Prep race – 7/10

In contrast to the 2000 Guineas, where only three of the past 10 winners had actually been seen in action as three-year-olds before striking Classic success at Newmarket, it seems a prep race has proved beneficial in recent renewals of the fillies' Classic.

This year's market leader Happily is having her first start for 184 days after a luckless effort at the Breeders' Cup and it's worth noting that from Aidan O'Brien's four 1000 Guineas winners in total (Virginia Waters admittedly falling outside of the 10-year period in 2005), only Minding came to Newmarket a fresh horse.

That obviously brings the gambled-on I Can Fly right into the equation following her Leopardstown third in the middle of last month.

Nell Gwyn winner Soliloquy is preferred to stable companion Wild Illusion on that basis, while the Nell Gwyn second Altyn Orda should also be considered closely after Sky Lantern filled that place in the same race before winning the big one five years ago.

Form at 1m – 6/10

It's not just the prep-race stat that clashes with recent trends for the 2000 Guineas.

Racing over a mile before tackling the Classic trip at Newmarket hasn't been a good pointer for the colts (3/10), but that figure is enhanced to 6/10 for the fillies.

Tightening up to the last seven renewals, only one winner was stepping up to a mile for the first time, so I Can Fly would need to buck that trend, as would the likes of Dan's Dream, Altyn Orda and impressive Free Handicap winner Anna Nerium.

Happily, Wild Illusion and Laurens tick both boxes of being Group One winners over a mile, while Liquid Amber won a Group Three at a mile in August and Sizzling actually drop back in trip from 10 furlongs.

CONCLUSION

Happily tops the betting with her class at the top table a key factor but a prep run has been desirable in this event in recent years and preference is for impressive Nell Gwyn winner SOLILOQUY, who is clearly fighting-fit, has the form at a mile from her juvenile days and looks more than ready for her first crack at Group One level, like six of the past 10 winners. Her third run was her best by a long way and she appears on a steep upward curve, with the drying ground also a big plus for her.

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