Qater Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tips: Graeme North preview and best bets

Arc day preview: Graeme North tips

0.5pt e.w Aventure in 3.20 ParisLongchamp at 22/1 (Bet365, William Hill & 888Spot - 1/5 1,2,3,4)

1pt Sparkling Plenty in 4.05 ParisLongchamp at 6/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w Beauvatier in 4.40 ParisLongchamp at 33/1 (Coral & Ladbrokes - 1/5 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

As I wrote in my preview of Longchamp’s Saturday card there are two things the serious or even casual punter needs to be aware of before finalising any selections for Sunday; firstly that the ground may well ride faster than the official description as it did last year despite similar going readings put out ahead of the day by the racecourse (the latest update issued by France Galop on Saturday morning suggests the ground had dried up a bit over the preceding 24 hours) and secondly that the opening up of fresh ground on the inside is likely to favour those drawn low in the longer races on the main track (Grande Piste).

There is now barely any rain forecast for Sunday morning so my advice is to have a good look at the times for Saturday - anything under 1m 38.00 for the Prix Daniel Wildenstein would suggest the ground is riding on the quick side, for example – and work forward from there.

Sunday’s opening contest, the Prix Marcel Boussac (12.55), features a clash between two fillies who at different stages of the season have both staked claims to being the most exciting of their sex and generation.

Bedtime Story was the first of the pair to do so in the Chesham at Royal Ascot which she won by nine-and-a-half lengths in a 110 timefigure that has been bettered only twice in the race since 2000. She looked something out of the ordinary, at least at that stage of the season, but despite winning two of her three races since her form has taken on something of a plateauing look and it was slightly worrying to see her pull so hard when losing her unbeaten record in the Moyglare Stud last time (when the reopposing pair Simmering and Exactly finished ahead of her) albeit she was subsequently found to be lame.

That run came only three days after Zarigana had thrown down her own gauntlet to being the best of her sex and generation with a mightily impressive victory in the Prix d’Aumale at Longchamp. Out of the Vermeille third Zarkamiya and a granddaughter of the outstanding mare Zarkava, a winner of the Vermeille and Arc among other Group Ones, she could hardly have been more impressive and, as I wrote in my North On Sunday column at the time, “I don’t doubt it will take a top-class juvenile to beat her in the Prix Marcel Boussac, a race which Zarkava won in 2007….her win, during which she moved so swiftly into contention that she recorded a 10.99 penultimate 200m despite the ground being on the soft side, in the process earning herself an upgrade anywhere between 7lb and 11lb better than the runner-up Angeal (already a Group Tgree winner) entitles her to be considered the best juvenile of any sex seen out in France this year (though recent Chantilly winner Maranoa Charlie might have a say about that next time he’s seen)”.

I’ll cover Maranoa Charlie’s impressive Friday Prix Thomas Byron romp in my next North On Sunday column but getting back to the Boussac, the race looks hers to lose with Bedtime Story having drawn the outside stall. Simmering and Exactly are joint third best on Timeform ratings some way back but Beauvatier’s half-sister Lhakpa who has won both her races and was value for more like six lengths than the official one and three-quarters after her eased-down win at Deauville last time looks open to most improvement. Even so, I can’t see her troubling Zarigana but at a general 4/6 I can leave this race alone.

The Jean-Luc Lagardere (13.30) has also attracted ten runners with Aidan O’Brien running two as in the Boussac including Henri Matisse who is clear at the top of the Timeform ratings by 3lb but sets potential backers a puzzle by wearing blinkers for the first time after failing to impress with his attitude when losing his unbeaten record in the National Stakes last time.

The horse who beat him there, Scorthy Champ, is a good colt in his own right and would probably have started favourite for this had it been on his agenda, but Henri Matisse had every chance to go past him last time despite a very slow start (not for the first time) in a steadily-run race but seemed not to want to and ended up hanging left and right. I can’t see the reopposing Cowardofthecounty who finished behind him then reversing form, but Henri Matisse faces some very talented rivals headed by Field Of Gold and Rashabar.

Field Of Gold has won two of his three starts, improving with every run, and looked a smart prospect when coming from off the pace to win the Solario at Sandown last time by three quarters of a length. Whether you believe the third home that day, Royal Playwright, franked the form notably by finishing second in the Royal Lodge last time depends on whether you think the much stronger pace at Newmarket was the catalyst given he had looked one paced at Sandown – I do – but whatever, Field of Gold looks sure to improve again.

Coventry winner Rashabar looks bound to go well. He won the race on ‘his side’ that day quite comfortably and might have beaten Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny last time had he not raced well away from the winner (who had the rail) and made his ground too quickly from far back. Home-trained Misunderstood is hard to weigh up after galloping his rivals into the ground last time and he’ll surely have to repeat those tactics back in trip if he’s to follow up, so it looks likely there will be a strong pace.

Houquetot is improving by the run and beat three of his rivals here, Heybetli, Revolutionnaire and Tiego The First, in the Prix LA Rochette last time. He’s likely to confirm that form despite two of the beaten horses both having excuses but that form looks a fair way below what the principals have achieved. Having recommended Rashabar at 12/1 for the Morny, I’m happy to pass him over at 4/1 here and sit this one out too.

Anyone who has watched racing at Longchamp this year over the straight 1000m will be acutely aware of how important a berth against the far rail has been – and how difficult it has been for horses caught up behind those racing there to get a clear run – and with that in mind it’s no surprise either to learn that of the 22 Abbayes run at Longchamp this century (the track was shut for two years while the meeting was transferred to Chantilly) 15 have been won by horses drawn nine or lower.

Can Believing take her revenge?

Sprints aren’t always about the draw of course – pace often plays just as significant a part - but with front runners Washington Heights in stall four, Desperate Hero in six and Bradsell nine it’s safe to assume the far rail will be the place to be again in this year's race.

In terms of Timeform ratings, Bradsell and Believing are 5lb clear of the rest with just 1lb between them. They have bumped into each other in their last two races with Bradsell getting the better of the argument both times, firstly in the Nunthorpe and then in the Flying Five.

However, there is good reason to think that Believing might be ready to reverse the form this time around. At York she was drawn widest but one in the middle of the track whereas Bradsell was next to the far rail where all the pace was and the race developed; and at the Curragh she was drawn even further away from her rival in the unfavoured group in the widest stall of all yet once again flashed home with sectional upgrades again suggesting she would have won given a fairer roll of the dice.

Drawn five, she should finally get the tow into the race that has deserted her the last twice with Billy Loughnane back in the saddle. Nunthorpe third Starlust (drawn two) and Flying Five third Makarova (who like Believing came from well off the pace) hold solid place chances while Kerdos in three is another strong traveller who will relish tracking the strong pace but 4/1 about Believing isn’t giving much away (Bradsell is 5/2) so on we go.

It’s fair to say this year’s Arc (3.20) lacks a bit of quality compared to previous years. On top of the rule preventing geldings from competing, few of the best middle-distance horses from last year stayed in training and some of the best horses around currently who might have been expected to have taken part such as Kyprios, City of Troy, Auguste Rodin and Economics have all been found other targets.

Calandagan and Goliath would have headed the Timeform ratings by some margin had they been allowed to participate, while high-class French middle-distance horses Iresine would also have been in with a good shout; as it is, the race looks very open with just 9lb covering the 16 runners on Timeform ratings and an even smaller 4lb covering the top ten.

What's the best bet in the Arc?

Al Riffa tops the ratings and brings an upward profile into the race, having split City Of Troy and Ghostwriter in the Eclipse before winning the Grosser Preis von Baden last time by five lengths after hanging right briefly. Whether replacing regular rider Declan McMonagle with veteran Yutaka Take turns out to be a good call remains to be seen, and Al Riffa wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much.

Prix Vermeille winner Bluestocking is next on weight-adjusted ratings and she has been supplemented at great cost. She was much further behind City of Troy in the Juddmonte than Al Riffa had been in the Eclipse but a mile-and-a-quarter on fast ground aren’t her ideal conditions and on her Vermeille form, where she got back up to beat the reopposing Aventure at the end of a strongly-run race where the runner-up had the benefit of a pacemaker but doesn’t here - unless it’s her owners other runner Sosie (!) - then she surely won’t be far away from stall three. Aventure, a horse I’ve been keen on for this race for a long time, has drawn four and similar sentiments apply to her.

Master trainer Andre Fabre has talked down the chances of his Prix Niel and Grand Prix de Paris winner and current favourite Sosie, arguing the form of the Classic crop isn’t that good, and though he beat the French Derby winner Look de Vega in the Niel with Delius splitting the pair and is clearly improving, that prep race was run at a modest pace in which Look de Vega was reportedly only 80% fit and he’d been beaten comprehensively by that rival in the French Derby.

Look de Vega possibly didn’t appreciate making his own running in the Niel but 2023 Arc fifth Continuous (who hasn’t looked quite the same horse this season) certainly didn’t in the Foy so with those two likely to be ridden a bit more patiently I’m not sure who’ll be sent to the front.

Both the Great Voltigeur winner Los Angeles and Japanese Derby third Shin Emperor will appreciate a strong gallop to draw out their plentiful stamina, but while a steadier pace won’t inconvenience Sosie’s stablemate Mqse de Sevigne, a five-time Group One winner at up to 2000m, her draw in stall 16 promises to compromise her chance even more.

Another progressive five-year-old, Haya Zark, ideally wants much softer ground than he’s likely to get while Prince Of Wales’s runner-up Zarakem needs to put a poor effort in the International (where he sweated up and proved too keen in the middle of the race out wide) behind him but is now equipped with a hood and has plenty of 2400m form (a trip he’s not tried this year) to his name last year.

AVENTURE has drifted out to 22/1 or bigger in several places and that price still appeals to me each way given four places are available pretty much everywhere.

The draw hasn’t been quite so relevant in deciding the outcome of the Prix de l’Opera (4.05) over the years with a fair spread of stalls between the winners and a couple since 2010 defying box 14.

From a ratings perspective, the filly to beat is Fallen Angel who won the Irish 1000 Guineas back in May before finding Leopardstown’s sharper mile a bit on the quick side in the Matron Stakes after a three-and-a-half-month break. She hit the line hard in the Irish 1000, so promises to stay this trip for all she has yet to try it, and on the face of things ought to confirm Matron form readily with Ylang Ylang who is clearly her inferior but might well close that gap somewhat now she is belatedly stepping back up in trip.

On ratings, Yorkshire Oaks winner Content has a 5lb better chance than stablemate Ylang Ylang but jockey bookings (Ylang Ylang is the choice of Ryan Moore) suggests the rider thinks the latter will be better suited to the demands of the race.

French Oaks winner Sparkling Plenty is an interesting runner. She had a blip or two back in the spring on soft ground after making a sublime reappearance on the all-weather at Chantilly, so her chance certainly won’t be helped by substantial rain, but she has the best turn of foot of any filly in the field and would have won the Nassau at Goodwood by my estimation with a bit to spare had her rider been more familiar with the track and she had not got so far back.

She showed she was still in good heart in the Vermeille last time when ridden to get the trip, finishing well again from too far back, and though it’s true all her best efforts have come on tracks with a longer straight than Longchamp, she won twice at the very tight Marseille last year. Duke Of Cambridge winner Running Lion, who has run stinkers either side, and American Sonja have similar chances on their best form while the improving three-year-olds Hanalia (won the Blandford last time out), Start Of Day (second in the Prix du Prince d’Orange behind Ombudsman) and Friendly Soul (comfortable winner at Deauville when able to dictate) almost certainly all have better efforts in them yet. In the expectation that the ground is no worse than good to soft, the 6/1 available about SPARKLING PLENTY looks a bit too big

Lively outsider in the Foret

The addition to the Prix de la Foret (4.40) field of the 2023 Queen Elizabeth II winner Big Rock, for all he hasn’t been at his best this season, has added a further injection of pace into a race that already had plenty with the Prix du Moulin winner Tribalist as well as well as Matilda Picotte already pencilled in, so it looks likely to be run at a fierce pace.

Tribalist has spent most of his life at 1600m and was run off his feet in the Prix de Ris-Orangis over 1200m at Deauville so isn’t sure to be at his best over this intermediate trip not least given he’ll have to fight to get to the front from a draw nearer the outside than the inside, while Big Rock has never run over a trip this sharp and has an even wider draw than Tribalist whilst Matilda Picotte is drawn out in the car park.

Should they all come over and try for the lead that might end up resulting in plenty of bunching on the rail, which might work to the detriment of those drawn low and who are usually held up such as Kinross in stall two as well as the Irish-trained pair Gregarina in stall three and Ocean Jewel in stall four but it might also leave the door open for Poet Master who has drawn stall one to make the most of his inside position.

He looked a potential Group One performer when an impressive winner of a Newmarket handicap off a BHA mark of 100 in May and more than confirmed that good impression in the Group Three Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh in May beating some smart rivals by nearly four lengths. He was too keen on his first run for nearly two months in the Park Stakes won by Kinross last time under a change of rider but has regular pilot Sam James back on board here.

Kinross, who has run in this race for the last three years, winning it in 2022 and finishing second behind the reopposing Kelina (been below form this year) in 2023 has clear form claims, probably the best of all in fact so long as he gets luck in running, but it’s also easy to give solid claims to the 1000 Guineas third Ramatuelle, for whom this slightly shorter trip promises to be ideal.

And If you are giving Ramatuelle the time of day, however, you really have to give BEAUVATIER at least as much. He gave her a start and a beating last year over a trip short of his best as well before finding conditions too fast when even-money favourite for the Jean-Luc Lagardere.

He’s taken his time to find his form this season, but his last two efforts when third in the Maurice de Gheest at Deauville (travelled really strongly but made his effort a bit too soon having been upsides July Cup winner Mill Stream 200m out) and the Prix de Meautry when he thrashed those on his side but lost out narrowly to Spycatcher and James’s Delight who both had the rail, suggest he’s ready to peak now back at his best trip.

Deauville runner-up Exxtra and Breege also hold claims but there’s 33/1 available about Beauvatier and that’s a price worth taking. A draw in 14 might not look ideal at first glance but this race isn’t run on the main track and it didn’t stop One Master from winning in 2018.

• Preview posted 1215 BST on 05/10/2024

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