We asked our top tipping duo Matt Brocklebank and Ben Linfoot to take their sides in four key battles at the Cesarewitch Meeting at Newmarket this weekend.
The Lion In Winter or Shadow Of Light in the Dewhurst?
Ben Linfoot: Two really nice colts and they won’t be the only two in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes, either. There was plenty to like about the way Shadow Of Light dismissed Whistlejacket in the Middle Park and I just wonder whether his speed for six furlongs might be the defining factor in this? It’s hard to side with one against The Lion In Winter, as he was mega impressive in a red-hot Acomb Stakes that has worked out very well, but I just favour the Godolphin horse to do him for pace at a crucial point in the race.
Matt Brocklebank: Throw in Ancient Truth too and it’s a fascinating clash - as you’d expect for a Dewhurst - and if I really need to hop off the fence at this point then I’d probably be landing on the side of The Lion In Winter. He’s achieved a lot in just two racecourse appearances, taking a while to hit top gear before powering away on debut at the Curragh and stepping forward nicely to land a hot-looking edition of the Acomb Stakes. A son of Sea The Stars, it’s way too early to be drawing comparisons with his sire but this colt just looked so laidback and thoroughly professional at York which will stand him in very good stead on his first visit to Newmarket this weekend – and beyond that too of course. Seven furlongs should be a bare minimum for him on paper but he’s clearly blessed with an abundance of class and while odds around the 5/4 mark look skinny enough, it’s hard to take issue as – to this point at least – you just can’t pick any holes in The Lion In Winter.
Aidan O’Brien or Joseph O’Brien in the Autumn Stakes?
BL: It will be interesting to see what comes over for the Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes and Joseph O’Brien’s Apples And Bananas certainly did well to handle the drop in trip and make all to land the Goffs Million at the Curragh last time. He should enjoy stepping back up to a mile, but Aidan O’Brien’s Aftermath looks a likely improver stepping up to this trip for the first time in his career. The son of Justify ran well in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster on just his second start and impressed with the way he dismissed maiden company at the Curragh when last seen. There’s plenty more to come from him.
MB: I’m not sure whether he runs un the Autumn, the Zetland Stakes on the same card or even waits for a big race in France later in the month but O'Brien senior's Genealogy is a huge son of Wootton Bassett (cost 400,000 guineas at Book 1 12 months ago) who has loads potential. He made a promising start when not unduly punished behind stablemate Acapulco Bay at the Curragh and then sprouted wings late on to get off the mark in a Punchestown maiden last month. Ryan Moore reported he ran green on the turn for home that day so is clearly learning on the job but he’s got some engine and should make up into a top three-year-old, whether we see him this weekend or not.
Willie Mullins or Emmet Mullins in the Cesarewitch?
BL: The duo have won four of the last six Cesarewitch’s between them and, I must admit, you feel like you’ve got less chance of landing on one at a price when you see these two names with fancied horses at the top of the market. Emmet Mullins has last year’s winner The Shunter in here off just 5lb higher, but he looks the stable second-string behind Jacovec Cavern who caught the eye on stable debut when second at Galway in the summer. However, Willie could have the upper hand in this family argument with Sea Of Sands, a German Group 3 winner who looks potentially thrown in off 95. He won in a canter on his stable debut over hurdles at Listowel despite some iffy jumping and it’s no surprise to see him so well found in the betting.
MB: It’s hard to imagine either will be featuring in Friday’s Value Bet column, put it that way! I suppose Emmet’s The Shunter – last year’s winner – is a 14/1 shot at the time of writing and would hardly be a shock winner off just 6lb higher 12 months on, but it’s perfectly understandable to see that stablemate Jacovec Cavern is a good bit shorter in the betting as he looked a progressive stayer for Mick Channon before going jumping with Paul Hennessy in 2023. It didn’t really work out there but, after 459 days off, he made his debut for Mullins back on the Flat at Galway in July and almost landed a gamble (8/1 into 11/4) under a patient ride. The son of Sixties Icon should stay this trip well and he’d be a worthy favourite here if it weren’t for ‘uncle Willie’s’ French recruit Sea Of Sands. If that one wins then I’ll no doubt lose on the race but him stamina for the extended two miles and two furlongs looks less than assured.
Desert Flower or Dreamy in the Fillies’ Mile?
BL: Again, both look nice prospects, but I thought Desert Flower might have to settle better to get home here against some strong stayers at the trip and it’s Dreamy for me with that in mind. I was dead impressed with the way this daughter of American Pharoah went about her business in the Group 3 at the Curragh last time over a mile and there’s plenty more improvement to come from her. She might get racing early and she might be one to play in-running if you’re the quick-fingered type, but I don’t think there will be anything finishing better and Desert Flower might just be vulnerable to that type of rival in this. Aidan O'Brien won this race with Rhododendron in 2016, a filly who won the same Goodwood maiden as Dreamy, and we might get decent odds with Tom Marquand jocked up with Ryan Moore riding January.
MB: It’s got to be Desert Flower here. I mentioned her as a likely type for the Fillies’ Mile in a piece we put together in the middle of August and she’s since added to her two July Course novice wins with a straightforward success in the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster. She put the race to bed quite quickly that day and I liked how she appeared to be keeping a bit back once it was effectively all over. Dreamy also has a bit of that about her, in that we’ve clearly not seen the best of her yet either, but Night Of Thunder filly Desert Flower could be a bit special and looks the type to peak in the autumn.
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