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Racing Betting Tips: Wednesday November 27
1pt win La Renomee in 2.25 Market Rasen at 22/1 (General) – min 20/1
1.15 Market Rasen
Camino Rocio has done well since joining the Bests but will now be 13lb higher than his first win, faces softer ground and a tougher test here, having beaten the unwilling Lunar Ocean last time, so the time is ripe to oppose him.
Knocknagappagh only catches the eye as she has her first start for Stuart Edmunds, so good at turning around tricky or soured sorts. The problem is she’s 0-24 and hasn’t run for 219 days, so could need the run, but some more rain would definitely help her chance, as she’s proven on soft/heavy.
Jessmae and Some Bro both make a bit of appeal making the switch from hurdles. The pair have similar profiles, both coming from a point-to-point background but have been handicapped over hurdles and are likely to do better over the larger obstacles.
Jessmae is bred for fences, a half-brother to the useful Chemical Energy and winning hurdler/chaser Marlee Massie, and he himself was only beaten a neck by the now 135-rated Dripsey Moon in an Irish point last year. A mark of 81 is clearly very workable if the engine is still there, and I’m inclined to ignore a poor return at Chepstow even though he showed very little there.
Some Bro was similarly placed in a point-to-point in March and has merely been marking time over hurdles, getting his mark. I’d expect better from both today and preference would be for Jessmae although the price is just a bit shorter than hoped.
2.25 Market Rasen
The highlight of the card, by some way, is the Bud Booth Mares Chase, and some quality performers line up for this.
Apple Away isn’t the star over fences connections thought she might be; useful, yes, but she’s had her limitations exposed a few times last year. Her current rating looks inflated off the back of her Perth win in April, which hasn’t worked out, and we’d have at least two of her opponents holding a similar chance today, making her unappealing at around 6/4.
Fantastic Lady, winner of this two years ago, respected despite some reservations about the form of the Nicky Henderson yard. Conditions look ideal and she won this in 2022 off a similar break to today, so we’d not put anyone off.
Marsh Run is another who should run her race, albeit needing to conclusively prove her stamina for this tip, but while Foxhunters winner Sine Nominee is a wonderfully game mare, her target is the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby at Christmas, and she is almost certainly going to need the run, making an overnight gamble something of a headscratcher.
LA RENOMMEE is very capable on her day and it’s not hard to forgive a rare poor effort at Kelso last time; her easy defeat of Sacre Coeur at Ludlow the time before reads well in the context of this race and she won the Challenger Mares Final under the burden of 12st at Cheltenham back in April. On that form she should not be a 20/1 chance, and while not the likeliest winner on paper, she looks the clear value at this stage, for all further rain would be a concern
Published at 0955 GMT 27/11/24
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