Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tips: Horse-by-horse guide for ParisLongchamp on Sunday October 3

CHRONO GENESIS - (Timeform master rating 137)

Bago (130) – Chronologist (Kurofune)

Form Figures: 131-21

PROFILE

You’ll have read John Ingles’ piece on Japan’s quest for a first Arc win earlier in the week – and it could well end on Sunday.

In Chrono Genesis they have a five-year-old mare who is a four-time Group One winner. She heads here fresh having landing the Takarazuka Kinen for the second time in June. Oisin Murphy rides, and he’s excited – and anyone with a passing interest in Japanese racing will tell you she’s a league above Prix Niel winner Deep Bond.

We have one piece of form to try and get a European gauge on her ability and that was a neck second to Mishriff in the Dubai Sheema Classic. She was involved in a barging match that day and it suggests she’s a big player here.

There are some potentially big stories around Sunday’s Arc – but arguably none bigger than a win for Chrono Genesis.

BEST PERFORMANCE

It was her first win in the Takarazuka Kinen in June last year, but she’s been within a pound of it in that race this season and the Arima Kinen in December. If she’s at that level on Sunday she’s a threat to all – and a big one at that.

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

David Johnson: The latest raider from the Far East that bids to go one better than El Condor Pasa, Nakayama Festa and Orfevre (twice) have managed over the last twenty years or so. Has gained six wins in her native Japan but she confirmed herself a high-class performer on the international stage when going down by just a neck to Mishriff in the Sheema Classic in Dubai in the spring. Will need to build on that here, but with the assistance of Oisin Murphy who takes over from Yuichi Kitamura, that isn’t hard to envisage. Looks the wise guys’ each-way suggestion.

Ben Linfoot: A four-time Grade One winner in Japan, Chrono Genesis’ Arc chance is best judged by her third place behind multiple Grade One winner Almond Eye and second position behind Mishriff in the Sheema Classic at Meydan. She’s classy and the addition of Oisin Murphy looks a shrewd choice by connections, so it’s no real surprise to see her price continue to contract.

The three-month break isn’t a concern considering her record off similar absences, but one thing that does nag is if this became a real slog in soft ground.

We’ll have to wait to see what conditions will be like, but her G2 success in the Kyoto Kinen on yielding turf isn’t enough to convince that she’ll be fine in a Longchamp grind – I think that would ask a very different question of her. Giving weight to the three-year-olds won’t be an easy task, either.

SNOWFALL - (Timeform master rating 124)

Deep Impact 134 – Best In The World (110) (Galileo)

Form Figures: 98-11112

PROFILE:

After a seven-race two-year-old career that mustered a solo Curragh maiden win and cutting little ice in Group races subsequently, Snowfall didn’t appear on many lists of potential leading ladies for Aidan O’Brien in 2021. She’s been a revelation.

When she won the Musidora on her reappearance we put it down to a Ryan Moore masterclass from the front. Then she won the Oaks by 16 lengths.

Putting a number on that display was an impossible task – Timeform went 124+ and while she’s never matched it, she came close in both the Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks.

• Click here to back Snowfall for the Arc de Triomphe with Sky Bet

It looked plain sailing to the Arc for the daughter of Deep Impact and an in-form three-year-old filly is deadly at Paris in receipt of the age and weight allowances. But then came the Vermeille and an unexpected bump in the road.

Maybe it was the muddling early pace, maybe it was an off-day at a time when a few from the stable had one. Whatever it was she now has a question to answer - but a chance of putting it right in glorious fashion too.

BEST PERFORMANCE TO DATE

Not only visually but on the book too – it was the Cazoo Oaks. You don’t win a Classic like that – but she did, routing her rivals under Frankie Dettori. She’ll need to go even higher on Sunday but just watch it again and see if you believe it this time around.

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

David Johnson: Has made remarkable progress as a three-year-old, looking a completely different filly to what she had in the Fillies’ Mile, with her four wins including an Epsom, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks treble coming with an aggregate winning margin of in excess of 30 lengths.

However, it seems perfectly reasonable that she was deposed as ante-post favourite following her shock defeat in the Vermeille, with the patient tactics employed in a muddling race not really cutting it as a sufficient excuse. Takes a leap of faith to see her get back to her best off a relatively quick turnaround, while that might not be good enough anyway.

Ben Linfoot: Three-year-old fillies have a great record in the Arc and Snowfall looked above average in that department when scooting away with the Musidora, the Oaks, the Irish Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks in a summer of utter domination. Any rain won’t be a bother to her as she looks versatile on the ground and if you’re prepared to forgive her that Prix Vermeille defeat last time out she’s a very tempting betting proposition at around 5/1.

However, I’m not sure I can forgive her.

There’s a possibility she might not have liked the track and, for whatever reason she bombed, she hasn’t had much time to rediscover the sparkle she showed earlier in the season. Those big efforts, for all that she looked to knock off her winning sequence easily, may well have taken more out of her than anyone realised at the time.

For me, the market reaction was justified and there’s enough doubt there now to pass her over against such a quality field.

HURRICANE LANE (Timeform master rating 126p)

Frankel (147) – Gale Force (107) (Shirocco)

Form Figures: 1-11111

PROFILE:

All that’s against him is history. 23 St Leger winners have have attempted to follow up in an Arc in their three-year-old season and none have done so. Four finished second, two more third and a pair fourth.

So can Hurricane Lane do what Nijinsky failed to achieve? Well despite the stats being thrown in his face he has a strong chance. He’s only been beaten once, when Godolphin’s leading fancy for the Cazoo Derby. It’s not that he ran badly in finishing third to Adayar, but he never seemed happy on the track.

He was very happy here at ParisLongchamp in the Grand Prix de Paris before giving the Derby runner-up Mojo Star – and the rest – a proper thumping with a Leger performance that oozed class.

He’s the only one of the leading contenders with a Timeform 'p', indicating there’s more to come. The only doubt hanging over him on Sunday is did Doncaster leave a mark? We’re talking fine margins when it comes to winning an Arc.

Hurricane Lane convinced connections it hadn’t in a piece of work on Saturday. It’s all systems go for France and if he does roll down the Bois De Boulogne in tip-top shape at the weekend, we might well see a piece of Arc history 12 months on from Enable’s thwarted bid for a slice of her own.

BEST PERFORMANCE TO DATE:

A theme that runs through the Arc field - it was his last - at Doncaster. That two-and-three-quarter lengths victory in the Town Moor Classic four pounds superior to anything he'd achieved before. He needs to go higher on Sunday but has that 'p' and star quality.

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY:

David Johnson: Has made relentless progress this year, the only blip when not really handling the track when third behind Adayar in the Derby. Has put that right to complete a Group 1 hat-trick since in the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and St Leger. His rating lags a little behind Adayar, but hasn’t had the chance to tackle older horses like that horse and looks a very able second string.

It’s well documented that no St Leger winner has ever won the Arc in the same season, but he looks a classier type than the sort that have tried recently and will have no problem dropping back to a mile and a half. Has yet to race on going firmer than good, so any rain this week is likely to aid his chance.

Ben Linfoot: Not a bad second string, is he?

Hurricane Lane has improved all season long and the only blot on his copybook in six races this year is that seven-and-three-quarter length defeat to stablemate Adayar in the Derby where he lost both of his front shoes.

Whether that hindered his progress at Epsom is unknown, but there is no doubt that he put in improved performances on his next three races as he rattled off a Group One hat-trick in the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and St Leger.

Any rain will be of a benefit to him considering his Longchamp romp on very soft ground in July and on the evidence of his last three runs he’s very much a contender - as his market position tells you.

The concerns? This is the first time he has tackled older horses, while no horse has ever won the St Leger and Arc in the same season. He’s a strong stayer and he wouldn’t want this to turn into a sprint, either. But he’s a player, there is no doubt. And if it rains and a strong gallop looks likely when the final field is revealed, then his chance will only increase.

ADAYAR (Timeform master rating 133)

Frankel (147) – Anna Salai (113) (Dubawi)

Form Figures: 41-2211

PROFILE:

A Derby winner – and a very good one. Not bad for a horse who rolled into Epsom as the stable’s third string. Charlie Appleby wasn’t convinced they shouldn't bypass the premier Classic for the Queen’s Vase but Sheikh Mohammed was adamant he ran. The rest is history.

It’s not that he hadn’t shown a good level of form prior to that, second in the Sandown Classic trial looked a really good start to his three-year-old campaign but the expected chunk of improvement next time at Lingfield was missing.

He was second to Third Realm there, staying on steadily in the rain-softened conditions, but ran to within a pound of his Sandown run on Timeform ratings. Had the ceiling been reached?

Not quite, under super-sub Adam Kirby he was a revelation on Derby day, squeezing through to lead two furlongs out and maintaining a relentless gallop to the line. At the post he was four-and-a-half lengths clear of Mojo Star,

When a 25/1 chance beats a 50/1 outsider in the Derby the odd alarm bell sounds. They were silenced in the King George when Adayar took on Mishriff and Love and fended them off bravely through the final furlong.

It took him beyond the magical 130 figure for Timeform representing a top-class colt and all roads led to Paris from there.

There’s been a scare though, a small setback ruling him out of his intended prep in the Prix Niel. Reports of his work since are encouraging and William Buick didn’t hesitate in choosing him over St Leger winner Hurricane Lane.

Sunday is a big day for this son of Frankel. Derby, King George and Arc is the treble of which legends are made. The stakes are high – but so are expectations.

BEST PERFORMANCE TO DATE:

It has to be his last one – that King George defeat of the subsequent runaway Juddmonte International hero. It was thrilling to see a Derby winner follow-up at Ascot again and the way he did it even evoked memories of Galileo seeing off Fantastic Light in their memorable Berkshire duel. Timeform rated it 130+ - there was substance to the style.

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY:

David Johnson: Has come a long way since beaten at short odds in the Lingfield Derby Trial, confirming his big-price Derby win was no fluke when following up against another top-class rival in Mishriff in the King George.

The hunch is that it might have been more the Mishriff we saw in the Eclipse, than the one in Dubai and York is a slight concern, as I the fact he missed his prep race in the Prix Niel with a slight leg infection. His trainer can do little wrong at present, and Buick choosing him over Hurricane Lane can be seen as a vote of confidence.

Ben Linfoot: It’s marvellous to see a Derby and King George winner so prominent in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting and Adayar’s defeat of subsequent Juddmonte International hero Mishriff at Ascot makes him the form choice at Longchamp. Getting 6lb from the older colts and 3lb from the older fillies could be crucial and his task of giving 4lb to the three-year-old fillies looks slightly easier after Snowfall proved she wasn’t invincible in the Vermeille. The posers for potential Adayar backers are a) how much does the leg infection that ruled him out of the Prix Niel matter and b) international travel and the Longchamp track are new variable. Is either a concern?

As for the first point, it looks significant that William Buick has made an early decision to ride him over Hurricane Lane, so the setback doesn’t bother me, and, while travelling abroad is new for him, we can’t predict how he’ll handle that - but the nature of the Longchamp track looks ideal. I’d have him as Arc favourite.

TARNAWA (Timeform master rating 125)

Shamardal (129) - Tarana (111) (Cape Cross)

Form Figures: 9/1111-12

PROFILE:

The story of Tarnawa has been one of relentless progress. The daughter of Shamardal failed to win in three starts as a juvenile, although she did finish second in a Listed race at Navan in the last of them.

She opened her account in a Leopardstown maiden on her there-year-old return and off the back of a win in the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas, headed to Epsom for the Oaks. A 20/1 chance she seemed ill-at-ease on the ground ground and track, finishing a laboured 11th behind Anapurna.

Back on an easy surface victories followed in the Give Thanks and Gladness Stakes but again her limitations at the elite level were seemingly exposed when ninth behind Star Catcher in the Filly & Mares Stakes. But at four Tarnawa was a different model.

She wasn't seen until August when she reappeared with another win in the Give Thanks and from there... lift-off.

A first Group One came with an authoritative display in the Prix Vermeille, a second back at ParisLongchamp in the Prix de l'Opera.

• Click here to back Tarnawa for the Arc de Triomphe with Sky Bet

She was clearly thriving - a fact underlined on her next start when she took on the colts - and the best America had to offer - in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Slowly away and wide off the home turn, she swooped late to beat Magical a length.

She stayed in training with Sunday as the chief target and so far, so good. A winning return in the Ballyroan was followed by a narrow defeat to St Mark's Basilica in the Irish Champion. That was over an inadequate trip and she tried to pass them all down the straight.

She might have done so too but for the winner drifting right, taking her with him. It was eyecatching, a perfect Arc trial in arguably the race of the season so far and enough to propel her to the head of the ParisLongchamp betting.

BEST PERFORMANCE TO DATE:

Her last one, the second in the Irish Champion Stakes earning a Timeform performance rating of 124+. It's one pound higher than the Breeders' Cup and Prix de l'Opera victories.

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

David Johnson: The current favourite and rightly so with her claims impossible to knock. Her Group 1 hat-trick last autumn, including against males in the Breeders’ Cup Turf showed she has all the tools to win a race like the Arc – in fact she might well have won last year had connections been a bit braver.

Her preparation this time around looks to have gone smoothly, which isn’t necessarily the case for all her opponents with her Irish Champion run looking a career-best. The booking of Christophe Soumillion, who is two from two on her is the icing on the cake.

Ben Linfoot: Tarnawa’s late seasonal reappearance ensured she was forgotten about a little in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting earlier in the year but not anymore. Dermot Weld’s five-year-old mare has assumed favouritism after reminding everyone of her talents with a good staying-on second in the Irish Champion Stakes - but is she a bet at 5/2?

On the positive side she is a dual Group One winner at Longchamp and she’s versatile when it comes to ground conditions, but I feel uneasy about her being favourite. Should she really be shorter than Adayar given she has to concede him 3lb?

The market has reacted as she’s arriving in peak form after being targeted at an autumn campaign, while Adayar missed his intended Arc prep sue to a setback, but she’s crossed the value line into too short territory for me at her current odds.

She’s likeable, talented and a major threat to all pouncing from the rear, but I just feel a dollop of recency bias is factored into her price on the back of an encouraging, but not a 'she should be Arc favourite', run at Leopardstown.

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