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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tips and analysis
Andrew Asquith, Matt Brocklebank and Tony McFadden give their views on Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.
Which horse from Britain and Ireland is the strongest contender?
Andrew Asquith: You would have to say it’s Los Angeles on form. He has developed into a very smart performer this year, winning the Irish Derby and Great Voltigeur at York. It was a little surprising connections decided to run him in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, as he is a horse who stays a mile and a half well – and promises to stay further – but he was far from disgraced down in trip, matching the form of his previous two wins. The step back up in trip will be very much in his favour, while any ease in the ground won’t harm his chance either, so he looks a very solid contender for leading connections, and his draw in stall 10 is workable.
Matt Brocklebank: I get the case for Bluestocking on ratings as she’s definitely upped her game since the cheekpieces went on and Ralph Beckett’s filly invariably runs her race, but she looked to have quite a tough time of things in the Prix Vermeille and I’m not convinced that was the ideal prep for her coming into a race like the Arc. Los Angeles was the horse I was most impressed by in the Irish Champion Stakes as I had him down as a proper Leger type before he defied a penalty in the Great Voltigeur and then ran on well from off the pace dropped to 10 furlongs at Leopardstown. I suspect Economics would be quite a short-priced favourite had he been aimed at Longchamp and it might be the key piece of form, with Aidan O’Brien’s main hope backed to reverse placings with Japanese ace Shin Emperor over the longer trip and on softer ground.
Tony McFadden: It's hard to weigh up exactly what Al Riffa achieved when winning the Grosser Preis Von Berlin last time, but the way he forged five lengths clear on his first attempt at a mile and a half bodes well. Prior to that he had made City of Troy dig deep in the Eclipse and that form has also been advertised by third-placed Ghostwriter, who ran well to take the same position behind City of Troy in the Juddmonte International, and by fourth-placed See The Fire who was only narrowly denied in the Nassau Stakes before winning the Strensall Stakes. That Eclipse effort looks like a solid piece of form and is up there with the best on offer.
Who is the pick of the home team?
AA: It’s between Look de Vega and Sosie, but I’d edge more towards Look de Vega who beat Sosie in the French Derby but was only third to him in the Prix Niel last time. Look de Vega started the odds-on favourite that day, but it was his first run for three months, and that seemingly told on the day. Connections had also been vocal pre-race that they had left something to work on with the Arc in mind and you’d imagine he’ll be cherry-ripe for Sunday on the back of that outing. Look de Vega probably wasn’t best suited by having to make his own running on that occasion, either, and given how promising he’d looked beforehand, I’m inclined to give him another chance. He’s still only had four starts after all, and he’s yet to reach the ceiling of his ability.
MB: Prix du Jockey Club winner Look de Vega probably has the best turn of foot and while it was apparently missing in the Prix Niel, I wouldn’t be in a rush to rule him out as we know how most of the French three-year-olds are prepared after the Classics – namely to the minute for this Sunday! However, the value may lie with Jean-Claude Rouget’s Delius, who split Sosie and Look de Vega in the Niel and is still sitting on a heap of potential himself after just the five career starts. A true test will suit him, as will the forecast rain on Sunday morning.
TM: Delius has been beaten by Sosie in the Grand Prix de Paris and Prix Niel but he has shaped well on both occasions, gradually increasing his Timeform rating. There could be bit more to come granted a strongly run race and he perhaps offers a spot of value at double the price of Sosie and Look de Vega, who he split in the Niel.
Is there an interesting outsider?
AA: I would give a chance to Andre Fabre’s five-year-old mare Msqe de Sevigne. She has been prolific over the last year or so, winning six of her last seven starts, with five of those coming in Group 1 company. Admittedly, they may not have been the strongest races, and she only won by a head when starting the 5/1-on favourite in the Prix Jean Romanet last time, but she quickened up well to lead that day and was always holding the runner-up. This will be her first start beyond a mile and a quarter, so she needs to prove her stamina, but her dam won at this trip and her half-brother was also a high-class performer at this trip. Msqe de Sevigne is a general 20s chance (she is as big as 25/1) and that doesn’t look too bad to me in an Arc which hasn’t really got a standout contender and the bar isn’t as high as it usually is.
MB: I’m a little amazed that connections of Al Riffa think he’s got a better chance with veteran Yutaka Take on board rather than regular rider Dylan Browne McMonagle but politics can take over when it comes to these major international prizes – I’m half-hoping the decision doesn’t cost them dearly as this horse has a chance on his Coral-Eclipse second and subsequent runaway win in Germany. That five-length victory at Hoppergarten looked an ideal way to get this horse’s confidence up heading into an Arc and I can see him going well but clearly have some reservations over the riding arrangements.
TM: Perhaps there's a big improver in the line-up, but this has the look of a substandard Arc so Continuous is of interest based on his effort in a better edition last year. Continuous was beaten only three and a quarter lengths in fifth on ground that would have been quicker than ideal for such a strong stayer, and conditions should be more favourable this time around. There has to be a doubt about whether he's as good this year after an underwhelming effort in the Prix Foy a few weeks ago, but on the pick of his form prices of 25/1+ seem big.
What's your overall verdict?
AA: I must admit I haven’t got a very strong opinion, so I will look away from the head of the market, and look to play a couple at bigger odds with enhanced places sure to be on offer. The previously mentioned Msqe de Sevigne is on my radar, while I also think that Continuous could run a big race. He finished fifth in the Arc 12 months ago and, while he hasn’t been at that sort of level in three starts this season, this does look a weaker renewal, and he represents a trainer who will have left no stone unturned for another crack at this race with him. On the pick of his three-year-old efforts, he will be very competitive in this field, while Christophe Soumillon retaining the ride is a plus. Continuous failed to land the odds in the Prix Foy last time, but he was ridden more positively than usual that day, while he was also kept wide and away from his rivals in the early stages. The return to a bigger field in a race which will hopefully be run at a stronger pace will suit him and he definitely has the natural ability to be involved. At 25/1 I think there’s enough juice to chance him.
MB: I’ve fallen for many Ballydoyle runners here over the years and, admittedly, it is quite remarkable that Aidan O’Brien has yet to win an Arc with a three-year-old (filly or colt), but you’ve got to treat each race and each horse as they come and for me Los Angeles has all the raw materials to run a huge race. His draw in 10 is perhaps three or four stalls wider than ideal but Ryan Moore negates any fears over that causing a major issue and, following the staying-on, 10-furlong prep in what looked a really hot race at the time, he’s going to relish going back up in trip on an easier racing surface in France, where he won at the highest level around this time last year.
TM: This could be a really substandard Arc unless an unexposed French three-year-old takes a sizable step forward, though working out which one will show the most improvement isn't straightforward. I'd have preferred had Al Riffa's regular jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle retained the ride, but, even so, he looks to hold solid claims based on his excellent effort in the Eclipse. He gets my vote in an open year, while Continuous is also respected at a big price.
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