Andrew Asquith examines past renewals of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and highlights the significant statistics and trends.
Top-class three-year-olds tend to shine
The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, run over a mile and a half at ParisLongchamp, is Europe’s most prestigious middle-distance race and can attract horses from each corner of the globe.
The market for this year’s renewal is headed by unbeaten three-year-old Ace Impact, who is trained by Jean-Claude Rouget and unlike your archetypal high-class horse from the Classic generation only made his debut in January.
He is one of five three-year-olds likely to contest the Arc this year (the Aidan O’Brien-trained Continuous and the German Derby winner Fantastic Moon have been supplemented) and that age group have an excellent record in the race this century.
Since the year 2000 there have been 12 three-year-old winners of the Arc, with notable names including Zarkava, Sea The Stars, Treve, Golden Horn and Enable. The last-named, who won her first Arc in 2017, is the last three-year-old to win the race, however.
Ace Impact is Timeform's highest-rated three-year-old in Europe based on his high-class performance in the Prix du Jockey Club, where he took the step up to Group 1 company in his stride and had the reopposing Feed The Flame back in fourth.
The only horse to win the Prix du Jockey Club and go on to win the Arc in their three-year-old season this century is Dalakhani back in 2003, though Sulamani (2002), New Bay (2015), Sottsass (2019) and Vadeni (2022) all finished placed at Longchamp.
Both Sottsass – who went on to win the Arc as a four-year-old – and Vadeni were trained by Rouget, so it is a well-trodden path for the trainer. The record of Prix du Jockey Club winners going on to taste success in the Arc isn’t a great one, but Rouget made the decision not to run Ace Impact in the Irish Champion Stakes – Vadeni did so before his Arc bid – earlier this year and that may pay dividends this weekend.
Ace Impact clearly has an exciting profile, arrives a fresh horse and should have no problem staying a mile and a half, while the ground is unlikely to be testing looking at the forecast, so he clearly has a favourite's chance.
No Leger winner has ever followed up in same year's Arc
Continuous has been well supported in the betting since winning the St Leger at Doncaster and is another three-year-old who needs maximum respect. He made a promising reappearance in the Dante at York but was disappointing behind Ace Impact in the Prix du Jockey Club afterwards.
He has progressed well since, however, finishing runner-up to King of Steel at Royal Ascot before winning the Great Voltigeur and then showing a turn of foot to outclass some dour stayers in the St Leger.
Only nine horses (six trained by Aidan O’Brien) have gone on to run in the Arc after winning the St Leger since 2000, and the record isn’t very good, with the Charlie Appleby-trained Hurricane Lane, who finished third in 2021, faring best of them all, while Kingston Hill finished fourth for Roger Varian in 2014.
Therefore, statistically at least, Continuous faces a stiff task, but he is O’Brien’s leading hope coming into the race this year and he was a well-up-to-standard winner of the Leger on Timeform’s figures. The drop back to a mile and a half won’t be a problem, either, and it would be folly to rule him out for top connections given the progress he has made in his last two starts.
Is the King George a good stepping-stone?
Hukum and Westover are a couple of older horses who also figure prominently in the betting and they had a showdown in the King George at Ascot last time, a race that has produced several Arc winners this century and may also hold the key to this year's renewal.
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Enable (in her three-year-old season) was the last horse to win the King George and go on to be successful in the Arc in 2017, but 10 years earlier Dylan Thomas also completed the same feat as a four-year-old.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Workforce famously dismissed a dire effort in the King George when bouncing back to his best to win the Arc in 2010, adding to his Derby success at Epsom earlier in the year, while Waldgeist had finished third to Enable in the 2019 King George but was able to turn around that form in the Arc.
This year’s renewal of the King George had considerable depth and, even with a couple of disappointments in the race, Hukum and Westover both produced top-class performances and were separated only by a head after a tremendous tussle in the final furlong.
Westover was an impressive winner of the Irish Derby last season but could finish only sixth in the Arc 12 months ago, though he does look a more mature, improved model this year and the return to likely better ground will give him every chance of reversing the form with Hukum.
Interestingly, Hukum is bidding to become the first six-year-old to win the Arc - seven-year-old Motrico in 1932 is the oldest horse to win the race since its inception in 1920.
Hukum is an admirable horse whose record is hard to argue with, however, and, just like Westover, he produced a career-best effort in the King George last time. A likeable, straightforward type, who has plenty of stamina, he seems sure to launch another bold bid, but connections wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much.
Fillies and mares must be respected
Another angle to look at is the record of fillies and mares in the Arc. They have won a remarkable eight of the last 12 renewals and Japanese mare Through Seven Seas is an interesting contender this weekend.
The Japanese are still searching for a first winner of the Arc, though Nakayama Festa was beaten only a head by Workforce in 2010, while Orfevre was agonisingly beaten a neck by Solemia in 2012 and then finished runner-up behind another filly in Treve 12 months later.
It would, therefore, be somewhat ironic if a mare gave Japan a first victory in the Arc on Sunday. She was beaten just a neck by Equinox - a one-time ante-post favourite for the Arc - in the Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin when last seen in June and she also didn't get the clearest run on that occasion.
That effort gives Through Seven Seas a chance, while she appears to be getting better with age and adds a different dimension to the race, for all she will likely need a big career best to come out on top.
How big a deal is the Arc draw?
There could be up to 16 runners in the Arc after Continuous and Fantastic Moon were supplemented, so the draw will be a factor.
There have been six winners of the Arc who broke from a double-figure draw since 2000, the highest of those being stall 15 (2001, 2013), while the other 16 renewals have all been won by horses berthed in single-figure stalls – the Arc was run at Chantilly in 2016 and 2017.
A lower draw is preferable but not necessary and riding tactics will also have an impact on the result.
Frankie Dettori memorably kept Golden Horn out wide from stall 14 before slotting over before turning into the straight on his way to victory in 2015.
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