Chester Cup tips: Antepost preview and recommended bet

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Fri May 07, 2021 · 4y ago

Racing betting tips: Flat antepost

1pt e.w. Trumpet Man in tote+ Chester Cup at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

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Now's the time to have a bet on the tote+ Chester Cup, with confirmations to be made by Sunday ahead of final declarations a week today.

The BHA ratings for qualification were published last Tuesday but the cut-off for penalties was earlier in the month (April 10) so we know that Elysian Flame and Almighwar – who fought out the finish to a competitive stayers’ handicap at Newbury on April 16 – are going to be well-in.

The neck winner Elysian Flame carries a 3lb penalty at Chester so is 3lb ahead of the handicapper as he’s due to go up 6lb, while the runner-up escapes any sort of rise for this and is therefore on the right side of the assessor, to the tune of 5lb. That helps explain why he’s clear market leader, together with his lightly-raced profile, superb pedigree and high-profile connections.

Training partnership John and Thady Gosden also have a second string to their bow and another trading quite short in the betting in Golden Rules (10/1 generally).

However, with 'only' 17 allowed in the final field, Golden Rules – who is 1lb higher than for his promising comeback effort (beaten a nose) at Wolverhampton – could be in danger of missing the cut as he’s currently 31 on the list.

Dan Skelton’s Stepney Causeway (48) must have next to no chance of getting into the final field and is readily passed over at a best-priced 14/1, while Roger Varian’s Postileo (33) may be another more likely to have to settle for the consolation race for those who are balloted out.

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So the antepost picture is likely to change quite markedly and it’s easy to see the likes Not So Sleepy (10/1) and Rare Groove (12/1) - guaranteed a start if declared - contracting a bit in behind Almighwar, who may well tighten up slightly himself from a best of 11/2 with bet365 (9/2 generally).

The obvious big one who could be value at the prices is Dermot Weld's classy Falcon Eight, who hasn't been seen since last June and has been gelded over the winter. Without knowing the plans, however, he's hard to recommend with anything like confidence.

Ralph Beckett’s Future Investment seems destined to have had Chester on his agenda for a while now, given he’s got a perfect 2-2 record at the course. He’s gone well fresh in the past too and did run with credit for a long way before his stamina possibly started to ebb away late on in the Cesarewitch when last seen.

The return to a turning track will suit him as well but he’s probably not got a huge amount in hand from his current mark, which I'm convinced is the case with TRUMPET MAN.

Applying a bit of educated guesswork leads one to believe he’ll be the mount of local favourite Franny Norton (has been on board last five starts – it’s really not rocket science, folks), who enjoyed a breakthrough moment in the race aboard Making Miracles when it was last run in 2019.

That was also a first Chester Cup success for trainer Mark Johnston and there are some striking similarities with that winner and Trumpet Man’s profile. Like Making Miracles, he’s a well-bred four-year-old who went through the handicap ranks at three and arrives race-fit on the back of a promising run.

Both horses finished just outside the places in the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh (fifth and sixth) on their seasonal return and although Making Miracles subsequently went to Ripon and picked up a 3lb penalty for winning at the end of April, connections appear happy to go straight for the big one with Trumpet Major, which is quite encouraging in itself.

Really keen in the early stages on his comeback, Norton’s mount was rather stitched up by Connor Beasley who set a muddling tempo up front on Hochfeld, before fellow stablemate Themaxwecan came over the top to win narrowly from Ian Williams’ Cardano, who was also prominent throughout.

All three of those rivals, along with Andrew Balding’s Nate The Great, who was fourth, are set to reoppose on the Roodee, but nothing appeals quite as much as Trumpet Man, who may have needed the run at Musselburgh (drifted to 10/1 before the off) and will handle whatever the weather throws up, having won on Good and Heavy going last term.

Between those turf successes at Nottingham and Haydock respectively, the son of Golden Horn also struck over two miles on the Tapeta at Newcastle, where he had Ravenscar – winner of four handicaps subsequently – well beaten off in third.

Stamina is no issue at all then, and as far as his official mark is concerned, Trumpet Man is now 11lb higher than for his last win but is bred to just get better with age as his half-brother Polarisation only really peaked when winning a Group One in Australia as a five-year-old.

At 16/1 across the board, he’s a fair each-way bet (four places) at this point, with the defection of other short in the betting, Norton booked to ride, and a low draw all potential factors which could see his odds come crashing down in the next seven days.

Published at 1400 BST on 28/04/21