Pedigree pointers: Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket

Gustav Klimt: Galileo – Massarra (Danehill)

Gustav Klimt heads the market for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and he’s the only Galileo colt in this year’s field. Galileo has sired three 2000 Guineas winners at Newmarket; Frankel, Gleneagles and Churchill, with his overall stats on the Rowley Mile course offering a win strike-rate of 13 per cent, something that slightly increases when taking into account his progeny’s success over the track and trip of the Guineas. Gustav Klimt is bred along the same lines of Frankel, being out of a Danehill mare, and he’s the half-brother to two winning milers, so it’s reasonable to expect he will improve for the trip having only run over six and seven furlongs thus far.

Verdict: Has the pedigree of a miler with a touch of speed and he could well have too much toe for one or two of his more stoutly-bred opposition.

Sky Bet Odds: 9/4

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Galileo – 46/354 @ 12.99% (Non handicaps – 40/271 @ 14.76%)
• Out of Danehill mares – 41/405 10.12% (Non handicaps 29/251 11.55%)
• Over a mile:
• Galileo 14/101 @13.86% (Non handicaps 14/99 14.14%)
• Out of Danehill mares – 11/112 9.82% (Non handicaps 9/74 12.16%)

Saxon Warrior: Deep Impact – Maybe (Galileo)

Japanese sire Deep Impact has had some Group One joy in Europe with his daughter, Beauty Parlour, winning the 2012 French 1000 Guineas while 2015 Hong Kong Cup hero, A Shin Hikari, famously came over and won the following year’s Prix d’Ispahan by 10 lengths. His Royal Ascot flop meant a first Group One in England eluded Deep Impact’s progeny, though, until Saxon Warrior won last year’s Racing Post Trophy. Unbeaten in three starts, he could easily become Deep Impact’s first English Classic winner, although his dam, Maybe, wasn’t as good at three as she was at two. We know he stays the mile well, however, and progeny out of Galileo mares have a 23 per cent strike-rate over a mile on the Rowley Mile.

Verdict: The worry is he'll need further at three, but there is certainly hope he'll have the speed considering the record of progeny out of Galileo mares over a mile on this course.

Sky Bet Odds: 4/1

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Deep Impact - 0/2
• Out of Galileo mares – 22/130 @ 17% (Non handicaps – 13/92 @ 14%)
• Over a mile:
• Out of Galileo mares 9/39 23.08% (Non handicaps – 7/31 @ 22.58%)

Masar: New Approach – Khawlah (Cape Cross)

New Approach progeny have 11 wins in non handicaps on the Rowley Mile and one of those is Dawn Approach’s 2013 2000 Guineas romp where he blitzed the field by five lengths. Masar looks the best New Approach colt since Dawn Approach and we know the course and distance suits him after his own easy Craven Stakes victory last month. The first foal to race out of Cape Cross mare Khawlah, his dam won the UAE Oaks and UAE Derby over nearly 10 furlongs and that sort of trip could well bring even more improvement out of Charlie Appleby’s star, while it harbours slight doubts that he’ll be tapped for toe by a genuine miler. Whether he’ll stay 1m4f is a question for another day.

Verdict: Was fit and ready in the Craven and on that form he's a big player, but does look vulnerable to an out-and-out miler and might be seen at best over ten furlongs.

Sky Bet Odds: 9/2

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• New Approach – 17/125 @13.6% (Non handicaps – 11/97 @ 11.34%)
• Out of Cape Cross mares – 9/110 @ 8.18% (Non handicaps - 7/66 @10.61%)
• Over a mile:
• New Approach – 5/38 @ 13.16% (Non handicaps – 5/35 @14.29%)
• Out of Cape Cross mares – 2/28 @ 7.14% (Non handicaps - 2/20 @10%)

Elarqam: Frankel – Attraction (Efisio)

With John Gosden ruling Without Parole out of the Guineas due to a bruised foot the sole Frankel in the field is Mark Johnston’s Elarqam. Out of Johnston’s 1000 Guineas winner Attraction, Elarqam can boast parents that both won Classics on this weekend and his sire’s was the greatest of them all. Frankel’s first Classic representation was last year with Dream Castle and Eminent finishing fifth and sixth in the Guineas before Cracksman finished third in the Derby and second in the Irish Derby, his only two defeats from eight starts. As for Attraction, Elarqam is the eighth foal out of the mare and the previous best horse she produced was Fountain Of Youth, a Group Three-winning sprinter for Aidan O’Brien. But if any horse in the field was bred for a Guineas, it’s this fellow.

Verdict: Out of a Guineas winner, by the Guineas winner, it looks like his sire's class has produced the best colt out of Attraction yet. If he's ready mentally, after just two runs, he could be the one.

Sky Bet Odds: 5/1

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Frankel – 6/37 @16.22% (Non handicaps 6/34 @ 17.65%)
• Out of Efisio mares – 14/167 @8.38% (Non handicaps 9/69 @13.04%)
• Over a mile:
• Frankel – 3/17 @17.65% (Non handicaps – 3/15 @ 20%)
• Out of Efisio mares – 3/28 @ 10.71% (NH 1/10 @ 10%)

Expert Eye: Acclamation – Exemplify (Dansili)

On running style you’d be hoping Expert Eye will settle in order to see out the eighth furlong, something he hasn’t yet encountered in four career starts. Especially considering his Greenham second. But on pedigree you’d say he’ll relish the distance. He’s a half-brother to a mile winner, his dam was a mile winner and she was a half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Special Duty, who was out of a sister to a Grade One winner over a mile. Horses out of Dansili mares in non handicaps over a mile on the Rowley Mile have an impressive near 27 per cent strike-rate.

Verdict: Has a nice mix of speed and stamina being by a high-class sprinter out of a Dansili mare and if he settles early he could well confirm the promise of his Vintage Stakes cruise.

Sky Bet Odds: 8/1

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Acclamation – 23/245 @9.39% (Non handicaps 15/125 @12 %)
• Out of Dansili mares – 14/95 @14.74% (Non handicaps 10/53 @ 18.87%)
• Over a mile:
• Acclamation – 3/30 @10% (Non handicaps 1/11 @9.09%)
• Out of Dansili mares – 5/26 @ 19.23% (Non handicaps 4/15 @ 26.67%)

US Navy Flag: War Front – Misty For Me (Galileo)

Air Force Blue was meant to be the War Front colt that catapulted his sire into the Classic-winning stratosphere. A high-class juvenile, he was sent off as 4/5 favourite for the 2016 2000 Guineas but finished second last, with subsequent events proving, conclusively, that he didn’t train on. Hopes aren’t as high for US Navy Flag, a horse that ran 11 times at two, winning four. Two of those victories were Group Ones, though, and they both came on the Rowley Mile, within the space of a fortnight, last autumn. A full sister to Roly Poly, she had a similar profile, and though she wasn’t ready for the Guineas she did win three Group Ones at three. War Front progeny and sons and daughters out of Galileo mares have a good record on the Rowley Mile, especially over the Guineas distance.

Verdict: Strong stats from his sire and damsire on the Rowley Mile and, if he runs, he has to have a chance, especially with the ground drying.

Sky Bet Odds: 16/1

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• War Front – 10/53 @18.87% (Non handicaps – 7/38 @ 18.42%)
• Out of Galileo mares – 22/130 @ 17% (Non handicaps – 13/92 @ 14%)
• Over a mile:
• War Front – 2/14 @ 14.29% (Non handicaps – 1/12 @8.33%)
• Out of Galileo mares 9/39 23.08% (Non handicaps – 7/31 @ 22.58%)

Best Of The Rest

Kitten’s Joy could well be represented by Roaring Lion despite his Craven flop. His best colt so far has been Hawkbill, rated 122 after his Coral-Eclipse win. Roaring Lion’s dam, Vionnet, was related to a winner in the US that got further and John Gosden’s charge could well stay beyond a mile.

Exceed And Excel sired a top miler in Excelebration who suffered, a little, for being born in the Frankel era. This year he has James Garfield in the Guineas and he’s related to winners over a mile and further so should have no trouble seeing out the trip.

Finally, the late Scat Daddy is a sire in vogue thanks to the exploits of Lady Aurelia and Caravaggio, but Mendelssohn has shown this season that he’s not just all about sprinters. That’s good news for Aidan O’Brien’s outsider Murillo, untried beyond six furlongs. His dam, Mostaqelah, stayed a mile and he’s a half-brother to a couple of horses that won over a mile or further, but if he does run he could well be utilised as a pacemaker.

Roaring Lion – Kitten’s Joy – Vionnet (Street Sense)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Kitten’s Joy – 3/8 @37.5% (Non handicaps – 2/7 @28.57%)
• Over a mile:
• Kitten’s Joy – RM – 2/5 @40% (Non handicaps – 1/4 @25%)

Headway – Havana Gold – On Her Way (Medicean)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Havana Gold – 0/9
• Out of Medicean mares 2/35 5.71% (Non handicaps 1/17 5.88%)
• Over a mile:
• Out of Medicean mares 0/10

James Garfield – Exceed And Excel – Whazzat (Daylami)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Exceed And Excel – 19/238 7.98% (Non handicaps 8/143 @5.59%)
• Out of Daylami mares - 8/75 @10.67% (Non handicaps 5/45 11.11%)
• Over a mile:
• Exceed And Excel – 3/45 6.67 (Non handicaps1/23 @4.35 %)
• Out of Daylami mares 2/20 @10% (Non handicaps 2/15 13.33%)

Tip Two Win – Dark Angel – Freddie’s Girl (More Than Ready)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Dark Angel – 11/166 6.63% (Non handicaps 4/94 4.26%)
• Out of More Than Ready mares 1/5 20%
• Over a mile:
• Dark Angel – 3/30 10% (Non handicaps 1/17 @5.88%)

Rajasinghe – Choisir – Bunditten (Soviet Star)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile:

• Choisir – 7/61 @11.68% (Non handicaps 4/31 @12.90%)
• Out of Soviet Star mares 8/114 @7.02% (Non Handicaps – 2/53 3.77%)
• Over a mile:
• Choisir RM – 0/10
• Out of Soviet Star mares 1/25 4%

Murillo – Scat Daddy – Mostaqeleh (Rahy)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile

• Scat Daddy – 1/9 11.11%
• Out of Rahy mares – 12/108 11.11% (Non Handicaps 9/72 12.5%)
• Over a mile:
• Scat Daddy – 1/4 25%
• Out of Rahy mares – 1/25 4% (Non Handicaps 1/19 5.26%)

Hey Gaman – New Approach – Arsaadi (Dubawi)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile

• New Approach – 17/125 @13.6% (Non handicaps – 11/97 @ 11.34%)
• Out of Dubawi mares – 2/19 @ 10.53% (Non handicaps - 1/15 @6.67%)
• Over a mile:
• New Approach – 5/38 @ 13.16% (Non handicaps – 5/35 @14.29%)
• Out of Dubawi mares – 0/7 @ 0% (Non handicaps - 0/5 @0%)

Raid – Havana Gold – Remarkable Story (Mark Of Esteem)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile

• Havana Gold – 0/9
• Out of Mark Of Esteem mares – 12/110 10.91 (Non handicaps 9/59 15.25%)
• Over a mile:
• Out of Mark Of Esteem mares - 0/22

Cardsharp – Lonhro – Pure Illusion (Danehill)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile

• Lonhro – 2/10 20% (Non handicaps 1/8 12.5%)
• Out of Danehill mares – 41/405 10.12%
• Over a mile:
• Lonhro – 0/1
• Out of Danehill mares – 11/112 9.82% (NH 9/74 12.16%)

Nebo – Kodiac – Kindling (Dr Fong)

Sire & Damsire progeny on the Rowley Mile

• Kodiac – 13/129 10.08% (11/80 13.75%)
• Out of Dr Fong mares – 0/56
• Over a mile:
• Kodiac – 3/25 12%

Related links

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