Paul Ferguson: Cheltenham Trials Day clues to look out for and key trends

This time last year, I wrote a similar piece, highlighting how the results from Trials Day had an impact at the festival itself during the past five seasons (can be read here, if you are interested), and a further trio added their name to the list in 2020.

Simply The Betts and Imperial Aura fought out the finish of a tremendous renewal of the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, with the pair defying increased marks to land the ‘Plate’ and the now-defunct (well, set to be run on Imperial Cup day at Sandown) novices’ handicap, respectively. The other festival winner was subsequent Stayers’ Hurdle hero Lisnagar Oscar, who finished third to Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle, before going two places better in March.

The Cleeve Hurdle has proven to be the most significant ‘trial’ in recent years, from Saturday’s card. Going back to the turn of the century – when Bacchanal was beaten a neck by three-time winner Lady Rebecca – no fewer than nine of the 20 winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle had contested the Cleeve on their previous start. Staged over an intermediate trip until 2005, Lisnagar Oscar became the eighth Stayers’ Hurdle winner in the past 14 years to have contested the race. Of those eight, five were successful in the Cleeve, two finished placed, and Cole Harden finished only fourth six years ago.

In addition to this, both The Druids Nephew and Un Temps Pour Tout (prior to his second win in the race) ran in the Cleeve before winning the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day of the festival. Chief Dan George and Bensalem followed the same path – although both had time to run again in between – so that is four of the past 11 Ultima winners to come out of the Cleeve, too.

On Saturday, Paisley Park is likely to bid to emulate the aforementioned Lady Rebecca in winning three successive renewals of the Cleeve Hurdle. Since the distance of the race was increased, only Emma Lavelle’s stable-star and the mighty Big Buck’s have won the Cleeve on more than one occasion, with the latter using this race as a stepping-stone to his first and fourth victories in the Stayers’. Inglis Drever ran in the race prior to his second and third Stayers’ wins, but won it just the once.

Given that two winners hailed from last year’s Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, that seems the best race to focus on next. Mister Whitaker also won this race in 2018 before winning the novices’ handicap, whilst Un Temps Pour Tout (ahead of his first win in the race) finished fourth before landing the Ultima in 2016. Another couple of winners of the novices’ handicap – Irish Cavalier and Rajdhani Express – also ran in this race on their previous start, so that is six festival winners in the past eight years in total. And, although the novices’ handicap is now longer in place, I would expect more of the main protagonists from this year’s renewal (and novices of such ability, in general) to be entered in the ‘Plate’ instead. Novices have a fine record in that race anyway – as per Simply The Betts last year – and I expect more to take their chance moving forward, rather than being aimed at the Sandown contest. Talking of the ‘Plate’, 2019 winner Siruh du Lac had won the Grade 3 open handicap on this card on his previous start.

It is, however, the Timeform-sponsored race which tends to be the better guide towards the festival, and the initial entries would strongly suggest that this year’s contest could well be up to scratch (more of which shortly).

In the past six years, two horses have won the opening Finesse Juvenile Hurdle and gone on to follow up in the Triumph. That pair were Peace And Co and Defi du Seuil, with the only other Triumph winner to run in the Finesse during this century being Katchit, who also completed the double in 2007. Interestingly, Alan King (trainer of the latter) won this race on four occasions between 2007 and 2012, and two of those – Walkon and Grumeti (the latter awarded the race in the Stewards’ room) – went on to enjoy Grade 1 success in the Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree, having finished placed in the Triumph. King doesn’t have an entry in this race year’s Finesse, but did introduce a potentially decent newcomer at Ascot last weekend, in the shape of Tritonic, who like the last-named pairing, carries the silks of the McNeill Family. Apologies for digressing somewhat, but he could be one for next month’s Adonis at Kempton, or even the Dovecote on the same card, ahead of the Triumph.

As for this weekend’s race, first and second in the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow – Adagio and Nassalam – set the standard amongst the 15 who are engaged at five-day stage, whilst Kempton debutant winners Heross du Seuil and Sage Advice could add further depth. Nicky Henderson trains Heross du Seuil and he has been responsible four of the past eight winners of the Finesse, whilst the Dr Richard Newland runner created a very favourable impression on his first start over hurdles. The Jane Williams-trained Honneur d’Ajonc wasn’t done with when falling at the final flight at Kempton (when still in front of Heross du Seuil) and is another to consider, in what could be a hugely significant trial from an English perspective, with the Irish rather dominating the top of the Triumph market as things stand.

Since the introduction of the Albert Bartlett at the festival, four winners between 2005 and 2013 had contested the Classic Novices’ Hurdle, with Wichita Lineman, Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross all winning the extended 2m4f Grade 2 on their previous start. Moulin Riche finished only sixth in this event, and had time to run again at Haydock, before winning the inaugural running of the Albert Bartlett. Both Wichita Lineman and At Fishers Cross had a subsequent Ballymore winner in behind, in what were clearly strong renewals, with Massini’s Maguire finishing third to the former and The New One chased home the latter. So, that was six subsequent festival winners to win-or-place in the Classic between 2005 and 2013, but none in the past seven years, although it is worth noting that the ‘English’ have only won two Albert Bartlett’s and one Ballymore during this more recent spell.

Again, Nicky Henderson boasts a strong recent record in the Classic, winning it on four occasions since 2008, including twice in the past three years. His two entries this year include impressive Newbury winner Lecale’s Article, who had been off the track for 970 days, following his win in a four-year-old maiden Point.

The final Graded race to touch upon is the Cotswold Chase, although no Gold Cup winner since Looks Like Trouble in 2000 has used this race as a stepping-stone to the blue-riband event.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Exotic Dancer won the 2007 Cotswold, before finishing runner-up to Kauto Star some seven weeks later, and Santini did the same last year, getting to within a neck of Al Boum Photo following his 3½-length victory over Bristol de Mai in this event.

At the time of writing, Santini’s participation in Saturday’s race is in the balance, with trainer Nicky Henderson concerned about how detrimental a tough race in heavy ground would be, just 48 days before the Gold Cup. Many Clouds won this race twice in the space of three years (2015 and 2017), with his Grand National success coming two starts after the first of those wins. Should The Conditional take his chance, it will be interesting to see how he fares, with Aintree in mind.

PRE-ORDER YOUR COPY OF THE 2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BETTING GUIDE HERE

Trials Day – Key Stats

• 8 of the past 14 Stayers’ Hurdle winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
• 6 festival winners in the past 8 years ran in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase
• 6 festival winners contested the Classic Novices’ Hurdle between 2005 and 2013
• 3 winners of the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle since 2007 have followed up in the Triumph Hurdle
• No Gold Cup winner has contested the Cotswold Chase since 2000
• PRE-ORDER YOUR COPY OF THE 2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BETTING GUIDE HERE

TRIALS DAY – STAR POTENTIAL

BEAR GHYLLS (3:00, BALLYMORE (CLASSIC) NOVICES’ HURDLE)

A horse who readers of Jumpers To Follow will know impressed me when winning a Warwick bumper by a wide-margin in early March, he has won all three starts over hurdles so far, and looks ready for the step up in class. In his bumper he beat Guard Your Dreams (also won three times over hurdles and now rated 135) by 19 lengths, with Bobhopeornohope (two-from-two over hurdles, and entered both in this and in the River Don at Doncaster) back in fifth. His hurdles form is strong, too, with him beating the 138-rated Make Me A Believer (won at Cheltenham and runner-up in the Leamington since) on debut, before giving 6lbs to Gowel Road (subsequent Newbury winner and now rated 131) over an inadequate trip at Ffos Las. He completed the hat-trick in handicap company at Exeter, from a mark of 130, and was subsequently raised 10lbs for that comfortable success.

Testing ground will not be an issue, and stepping back up in distance looks sure to suit. The one concern with Bear Ghylls is his jumping – which has been far from fluent to this point – but he clearly has a huge engine, and the configuration of the New course is a positive, with the obstacles well spaced-out in the final three-quarters-of-a-mile.

TRIALS DAY – RACE OF THE DAY

1:15, TIMEFORM NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

As already touched upon, this is invariably a strong contest, and a case could be made for several of the potential runners. If the ground is heavy – as expected – Lieutenant Rocco would just about top my list at this stage. Twice a winner under such conditions over hurdles, he has shaped with considerable promise on all three starts over fences – including when runner-up here in December – and will appreciate the stiffer test of stamina. Good-to-soft ground at Wincanton was probably on the sharp side for him last time, yet he still ran well in the re-arranged Dipper Novices’ Chase, and a mark of 140 is unlikely to be beyond him. Whilst he will appreciate going up to 3m in time, this extended 2m4½f on the New course will take some getting on Saturday, and he might get a lot of the opposition on the stretch, if allowed to take up his customary front-running role.

On the same mark, Espoir de Romay is sure to be popular. He contested the Martin Pipe at last year’s festival, and made a winning chase debut at Huntingdon early-on in the campaign. A month later he was sent off a short-price favourite to follow-up under a 5lb penalty at Haydock, where he came off second best to none other than Royale Pagaille. The winner has flourished since, winning at Kempton and last weekend’s Peter Marsh by 16 lengths, and was handed a revised mark of 166 by the handicapper on Tuesday. Strictly on a line through him, Kim Bailey’s charge looks potentially well-treated, although I just wonder if he really wants an out-and-out slog in the mud. That may sound daft given that the Haydock race came on heavy ground, but this horse isn’t slow by any means, and has been beaten on both starts when the ground was described as heavy, which does leave a slight doubt. Strictly from a handicapping perspective, he has to enter calculations, however, with him (remarkably) dropped 2lbs for his last run. Even more remarkably, the handicapper hasn’t reacted with the dreaded ‘collateral form rise’.

Further down the weights, Lust For Glory impressed when winning a small-field mares’ event on heavy ground last time, and Maypole Class is a horse who I have been with on his last two starts. He has actually been declared at Wetherby on Thursday (probably unlikely to go-ahead), in a race which might be at a more suitable level. Both him and Eden du Houx hailed from a very strong Uttoxeter race at the start of the season, and David Pipe’s seven-year-old – who was a very smart bumper horse two seasons ago – ought to appreciate coming back in distance, after two runs over 3m at Exeter.

The final horse I want to touch upon is Notre Pari, who is one of four entries for owner JP McManus. Sent off favourite for last year’s Lanzarote Hurdle, he was an eye-catcher on his second start over fences at Aintree, when a fairly serious mistake four out didn’t help his cause. He was a shade disappointing at Doncaster last time, but has been running exclusively over the minimum trip over fences thus far, and could easily show significant improvement for the longer trip, especially with the Olly Murphy stable in fine form at present. I’m yet to be convinced as to whether he requires really deep ground, however, and he might be one for later in the campaign.

Paul Ferguson
Weatherbys

PRE-ORDER YOUR COPY OF THE 2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BETTING GUIDE HERE

Related Content - Festival Fever

• Donn McClean's view from Ireland
• Mark Howard's Cheltenham portfolio
• The Big Debate: Paisley Park
• Ben Linfoot's Saturday Analysis