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ParisLongchamp Sunday preview: Graeme North tips for the Arc trials
Our man takes a look at Sunday's Arc trials at ParisLongchamp and he has selections for the big races.
Sunday is Arc ’Trials Day’ at ParisLongchamp with three races over 2400m (the Prix Vermeille, the Prix Foy and the Prix Niel) that ought to provide clues to the big race itself, while there are also a couple of pattern events at shorter distances to provide some variety in the shape of the Prix du Pin (1400m) and the Prix du Petit Couvert (1000m).
12 runners go to post for the Vermeille, the biggest field since 2012, and no less than nine of that dozen are three-year-olds headed by Opera Singer who followed placed efforts in the Irish 1000 and Coronation Stakes with a win in the Nassau Stakes on her latest start when upped to a mile-and-a-quarter for the first time.
That success owed much to a smart front-running ride, and though the form has been boosted since with runner-up See The Fire winning the Strensall Stakes at York, whether Opera Singer would have won at all had French raider Sparkling Plenty, who reopposes here, not got so far back is arguable.
My feeling is that the French Oaks winner was unlucky not to have won by a couple of lengths. The big doubt about both horses here, however, is the trip which neither have yet tried and should it prove beyond them there are plenty among their age group whose stamina is already proven.
Among that cohort are Survie, who showed much improved form when second in the French Oaks and then scored comfortably over this course and distance in the Prix de Malleret, Mosaique, who was second in the Malleret and has since won the G3 Prix de Minerve at Deauville, and probably the most interesting of all, Aventure, who was unsuited by the drop in trip and steady pace when third in the French Oaks but was successful in pattern events either side of that and had Mosaique seven length behind in third when romping away with the Prix de Royaumont.
The younger generation won’t have it all their way, however. Stay Alert has bits of form that make her competitive at this level but plenty that doesn’t and has to put two poor performances behind her, while Emily Upjohn is another who has had an inconsistent season and looks to be about 10lb short of the level she was at last year.
Like many, Bluestocking didn’t run up to her best in the Juddmonte International last time but second place behind Goliath in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth as well as a defeat of Emily Upjohn in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh where she did well to get up at all arguably makes her the one the three-year-olds have to beat. At the prices (13/2) I’ll side with AVENTURE, however, a filly I’ve been very keen on for the Arc since that impressive Royaumont success. Hopefully she’ll keep my ante-post slip alive for another day.
The other two trials over 2400m have attracted fewer runners combined than the Vermeille with five going to post in the Foy and six in the Niel.
The best four of the Foy five are a closely matched bunch, however, with any of Continuous, Zarir, Feed The Flame and Iresine capable of winning this. With stable duties in Ireland, Continuous will be ridden by someone other than Ryan Moore for the first time with Christophe Soumillon handed the honour.
How that pans out remains to be seen, especially if last year’s St Leger winner gets dropped in as he might well be, having never made the running before. In fact, it’s hard to know where the pace will come from with none of his rivals known for going to the front early.
First-time blinkers might liven up last year’s Arc eighth Feed The Flame but they are on I suspect as a result of an unlikeable attitude last time and if there is one horse best able to overcome a steady pace it’s IRESINE who is another in the long line of recent French high-class geldings denied a run in the Arc. He had a very rare run on a left-handed track last time in the Grand Prix de Chantilly but he’s back at his favoured venue now and 4/1 looks too big a price.
It's hard to know where the pace might come from in the Niel also. Neither of the German raiders made the running in the German Derby where the higher-placed of them, Augustus in third, showed an unpleasant action and head carriage, while Ambiente Friendly, Sosie and Delius have all been ridden in mid division or worse.
That might mean French Derby winner and current Arc favourite Look De Vega could be the one to go on. He’s raced close up in all his races and has seem them all out strongly, tactics which have paid off at Longchamp recently where the rail has been well out.
Look De Vega, who in a subtitled video released by France Galop earlier this week has reportedly strengthened up a lot since the French Derby but remains over his racing weight, undoubtedly has the best form - after all, he had Sosie over two lengths back in third in the French Derby and that horse went on to win the Grand Prix de Paris by two lengths with Delius over two lengths back in third, form which itself received a boost when runner-up Illinois just got touched off by Los Angeles in the Great Voltigeur.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Delius were to reverse form with Sosie given he still looked a bit inexperienced and got too far back in the Grand Prix, but it will require an even bigger effort to down an on song Look De Vega. Ambiente Friendly’s form has regressed since the Derby and he’s now tried with another new rider.
The pick of the ten runners for me in the Prix du Pin is a filly I’ve written positively about before, Exxtra, who was last seen in the Prix Maurice de Gheest where she finished second to the crack three-year-old Lazzat.
Beating 14 rivals in a Group One and only losing out to one who is still unbeaten is a tall standard to beat, but Mount Athos for all he was almost two lengths behind Exxtra in the Prix de la Porte Maillot, Prix Quincey runner-up Topgear and the Archie Watson trained Shartash are all capable of going very close if on their best form.
French 1000m sprints are not my idea of a solid betting medium but they are usually easier to solve at Longchamp than elsewhere because of the draw usually favouring horses drawn low. Rogue Lightning, one of four runners from Britain, is well drawn if that’s the case in four as is Electric Storm in five and Aidan O’Brien’s Aesop’s Fables (third in the 2023 Abbaye) in six.
Czech rocket Ponntos who led the Nunthorpe field for nearly three furlongs is drawn in stall 12 but he’s got enough early pace to clear the field and get to the rail. Whether he’s still in the same form as he was earlier in the season and will manage to hang on is another matter, however.
Juvenile clues from Moulin card
Last Sunday’s feature event at Longchamp, the Prix du Moulin, was covered in my latest Watch and Learn column (available here) but there was a decent undercard too which kicked off with the Prix La Rochette, a G3 race for juveniles over 1400m.
Won last year by the smart Beauvatier, the race went the way the market predicted with an ultimately ready success for the favourite Houquetot who had previously been second to Cowardofthecounty in the G3 Prix Francois Boutin but found the sole Irish raider on this occasion, Cowardofthecounty’s stable-companion Midnight Strike, much easier to handle.
There wasn’t much between the first six at the line, with Tiego The First and runner-up Heybetli looking a bit disadvantaged by how things panned out, and though the form doesn’t look much better than useful, the first two are clearly among the best of the home trained colts right now and should give a good account in the Jean-Luc Lagardere (in which Beauvatier was third last year) on Arc weekend.
The market also it right in the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange over 2000m with the well-backed Ombudsman from the John Thady Gosden team getting the better of the sole filly in the field, Start of Day, by half a length.
Exactly what this form is worth is something of an educated guess with the finishing speed coming in at a whopping 118% from 400m out if the tracking data can be believed. My fancy - at least when it was a widely-available 10/1 – Map Of Stars ran well in fourth but didn’t have any excuses, sent up by Mikhael Barzelona on the home turn to dispute the lead but never able to get clear, and with Vichy listed winner Start of Day getting so close after a troubled run it’s unlikely Ombudsman had to improve much if at all with main form rival First Look (second in French Derby) well below form after a ten-week break.
Mindful of how Ombudsman scored at Deauville, however, when never stronger than at the finish of a much more truly-run race, the steady pace and short straight here were almost certainly against him and he remains an exciting prospect for next season when he’ll surely step up to a mile-and-a-half.
There was also British success in the G3 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte with the Jack Channon-trained Certain Lad getting the better of the Prix Ganay winner Haya Zark with Al Mubhir back in third. Certain Lad has won both his starts in France this season but if there was a performance to take from the race it was that of Haya Zark who was having his first run for four months and ran a career best with a 6lb penalty under a sensitive ride. It will be interesting to see how Haya Zark fares in the Arc this time around; he beat only one home in 2023 but that contest took place on very fast ground and he’s in his element in the mud, so much will depend on the weather.
The final Group race of the day, the G3 Prix Gladiateur, went to Sevenna’s Knight who was the second winner on the card trained by Andre Fabre back at his proper distance (the other being Moulin winner Tribalist) who had run over an severely inadequate trip last time.
He’s developed into a high-class stayer this season and reversed 2023 Longchamp autumn form with runner-up Harbour Wind who has had a very light campaign and doesn’t seem to have made the same progress. Ralph Beckett booked the services of Maxime Guyon for River Of Stars but once again the mare wasn’t able to lift her form to 2023 levels and finished fourth.
Regally-bred Zarigana exciting prospect
Longchamp also hosted two interesting Group races for two-year-olds on Thursday with the Prix d’Aumale seeing the second appearance of the very promising Zarigana whose dam Zarkamiya finished third in the Vermeille and grandam Zarkava won the Prix de Diane, Vermeille and Arc just for starters.
Those are very lofty heights for Zarigana to live up to, but she could hardly have been more impressive in the d’Aumale and I don’t doubt it will take a top-class juvenile to beat her in the Prix Marcel Boussac, a race which Zarkava won in 2007.
Held up in a race which was completed in a 113% finishing speed from 400m out, Zarigana moved so swiftly into contention that she recorded a 10.99 penultimate 200m despite the ground being on the soft side, in the process earning herself an upgrade anywhere between 7lb and 11lb better than the runner-up Angeal (already a G3 winner herself) depending upon the starting point you want to use.
That puts her Timeform rating somewhere around 110p and given she wasn’t extended or even ridden out fully that figure is a bare minimum and entitles her to be considered the best juvenile of any sex seen out in France this year (though recent Chantilly winner Maranoa Charlie might have a say about that next time he’s seen).
The winning time for the d’Aumale was 1.44.58 and Zarigana ran the final 600m in 34.90; in stark contrast, the winner of the Chenes, Misunderstood, crossed the line faster in 1.44.08 yet ran the last 600m much slower in 38.72.
Misunderstood was clearly the best horse in the Chenes, fast out of the gate and running the first 1000m in 65.35 (the leader in the d’Aumale got to the same point in 69.10 seconds) and that injection of early pace, not often see in a French juvenile pattern race, was too much for his rivals with the four-and-a-half lengths back to the runner-up and almost 14 to the third.
He’s out of a mare who is a half-sister to a German Derby winner and the dam of St Leger winner Masked Marvel besides being a daughter of a German St Leger winner herself, so he’ll stay a mile and a half standing on his head.
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