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Paddy Power Gold Cup tips: Best antepost value bets for Cheltenham feature on November 13
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is fast approaching and Matt Brocklebank is keen to act now with a 25/1 shot he reckons is being seriously underestimated.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Saturday, November 13
1pt e.w. Galahad Quest in Paddy Power Gold Cup at 25/1 (888Sport, bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
More pros than cons with the favourite
Grade One-winning novice Protektorat could be quite a difficult horse to oppose in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
He has a heady mix of alluring qualities from winning Old course form and a good record fresh, to a fair-looking handicap mark of 154. Combine that with an ‘all systems go’ rallying cry from connections and it’s not hard to see why he’s 7/1 jolly.
The race does also appear to be lacking slightly in really exciting types from the Protetorak mould and you don’t have to wander down the antepost list too far before you get to a bunch of horses whose participation would appear up in the air, at the very least.
Paul Nicholls has been pretty clear in terms of Lalor and his starting point for the season but also it’s worth keeping an eye on fellow new recruit Simply The Betts as he was one of the most progressive novices for Harry Whittington a couple of seasons ago – culminating in his winning the Festival Plate – and we only saw him once last term when a rather laboured sixth (7/1) in this race last November. He's a potential springer at this stage if standing his ground.
Dancer one to be wary of for new trainer
Al Dancer – third in this 12 months ago – is likely to be towards the head of the weights after the field is thinned out closer to the time and he’s another starting out for a new trainer having been moved from Nigel Twiston-Davies to the upwardly mobile Sam Thomas.
Thomas has sent out Before Midnight and Paddys Motorbike (same owners as Al Dancer) to win first time out in recent weeks and it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if this race has been on the agenda some way out for his high-class new recruit.
Al Dancer’s mark of 151 isn’t completely beyond him – he’s only ever run in three handicap chases and his placed effort here last year came off 154 – and his form after breaks of 60 days or more reads 11111PU.
He’s been one of the early movers since the market began to take a bit of shape and it’s not the wildest guess to think he could have undergone a wind op since cutting out quite quickly at Kempton when last seen in February.
Coconut Splash is a less exposed runner who could have a really nice handicap prize in him this season and his trainer Evan Williams won the Paddy Power with a novice – albeit a race-fit one who was officially well-in – in Coole Cody last year.
Second-season chaser Coconut Splash is a far more raw model after just three starts over fences, though his winter seconds behind Messire Des Obeaux and Chantry House at Wincanton and Wetherby respectively are very sound efforts in the context of his current rating (137).
The big fear with him is whether two and a half miles around Cheltenham’s Old course will be too much of a speed test for him and for that reason I’m happy to let the 14/1 go.
Look even further down the weights
In the hope that the race really does cut up, I’m going to focus on Farinet and GALAHAD QUEST, who were third and first in a nice little novices’ handicap chase at Haydock on February 20.
Venetia Williams' French import Farinet is one of three subsequent winners to have emerged from that race – the runner-up Marown bolting up at Wetherby and fifth Duc De Beauchene scrambling in at Chepstow – while fourth home The Ferry Master was fourth again in the Scottish Grand National on his next start, so it’s clearly form worth following.
Whereas Farinet came out to win by six and a half lengths at Sandown in mid-March (in the race ditched from the Cheltenham Festival programme) and was hit with a 9lb rise in the weights as a consequence, Galahad Quest was put away and returned with a massively eyecatching run at Wetherby in the Listed handicap chase won by Good Boy Bobby (see FREE replay below) on Friday.
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He was incredibly weak in the betting there, doubling in price to eventually go off 28/1, and was held up out the back in a race seemingly run at a bit of a crawl and ultimately won by the long-time leader. David Noonan wasn’t unduly tough on the horse but he stuck on really well, after having to be switched for a run, to be beaten just two lengths into third.
It will be fascinating to see how the handicapper reacts but I’d imagine he'll be facing a slight rise (2-4lb) for future engagements. With the ratings for qualification already published earlier this week and the official weights unveiled this coming Wednesday, Galahad Quest will surely be a small step ahead of the handicapper after such a promising run so it looks a perfect piece of timing and race planning from the ultra-shrewd Williams operation, providing he gets in.
At 25/1 with 888Sport and bet365 and 20s generally which is also pretty attractive (33/1 at Betfred), now is definitely the time to strike a first bet on the race.
Published at 1440 GMT on 31/10/21
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