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Paddy Power Gold Cup tips: Best antepost value bets for Cheltenham feature on November 12
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham's big November meeting and argues the case for a 20/1 shot.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Cheltenham November meeting
1pt win Nassalam in Paddy Power Gold Cup at 20/1 (General)
Two Irish-trained horses hold an entry for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at this stage and – hold the phone – they’re among the top three in the betting for Cheltenham’s first major handicap chase over the intermediate distance.
Willie Mullins, who claimed a winner with his first ever runner at the Showcase meeting recently courtesy of Dads Lad, must be weighing things up with the Simon Munir and Isaac Souede-owned Fan De Blues, especially as the trainer hinted that two miles and smaller fields might suit the horse best after winning at around that distance at Cork earlier in the month.
He has winning Graded-race form from his novice days and is still probably well handicapped off 149, though it’s worth pointing out that is his revised Irish mark and the BHA have until Wednesday to put a fresh figure on him, should they see fit.
I suspect he could be into the low-150s over here, while fellow Irish possible French Dynamite (Mouse Morris) is up to 147 over fences and his recent hurdling win at Thurles won’t have gone unnoticed by the British assessors.
While clearly worth respecting, the Irish haven’t fared too well in this race in recent seasons and this year’s duo hardly look to be sneaking into the field unnoticed, so it’s no surprise the very top of the market is reserved for a home-trained horse with a run under the belt.
Only Al Ferof and Annacotty have won this without a previous outing in the same season over the last decade and Ga Law’s Old Roan Chase comeback was almost a Prep Run+ as he’d been off since February 2021, when looking a well above-average novice for Jamie Snowden.
Connections will be delighted with how he shaped behind a well-treated Riders Onthe Storm and hugely talented – if tricky – Hitman at Aintree, but whether he’ll be able to really kick on in a race of this nature just 20 days on has to come into question.
I’ll cast the net further, especially as fourth favourite Il Ridoto doesn’t look wildly well-handicapped either. War Lord gave Il Ridito 4lb and a beating at Lingfield in January and acquitted himself well in the Arkle before finishing a respectable distance behind Millers Bank when stepped up to two and a half miles at Aintree.
Joe Tizzard seemingly has plenty to work with regarding War Lord, but he’s also entered in the Haldon Gold Cup and starting out over slightly shorter, before working back up in distance, must be a little tempting.
Gary Moore has two interesting entries who would both be moving back up in distance if taking up their engagements, and Editeur Du Gite could end up being top weight if running here. His comeback run behind Dads Lad certainly caught the eye and there’s a chance he has a little more to offer over this sort of trip having looked a non-stayer in the past.
However, he doesn’t have anything like the same amount of potential as stablemate NASSALAM and the youngster has got to be worth another chance after being sent off a well-backed 3/1 favourite at Ascot on Saturday.
Without the blinkers worn for his previous start and reverting to a shorter trip having ended the last campaign with a win over an extended two miles, three furlongs at Fontwell, Nassalam set out to make all the running but immediately started jumping out to his left – something he’d done in the past at the same venue and around Plumpton last winter.
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Despite giving away loads of ground throughout, he was still just about in the hunt jumping the last of the open ditches, before another wayward leap three out effectively ended all hope. He was looked after by Jamie Moore in fifth.
I doubt we’ll see this horse on another right-handed course for a long time, but the outing should bring him on physically all the same and he’s got a bit of Cheltenham Old Course experience from his hurdling days having finished mid-pack in the 2021 Fred Winter.
Plenty of analysis has gone into the benefits of being on front-runners in Cheltenham handicaps – including this piece by our own Adam Houghton prior to this year’s Festival – and you only have to go back to 2018 to see the Moore-trained, John Stone-owned Baron Alco make all to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup on the back of a prep run.
Connections may ultimately opt against throwing the five-year-old into the white-hot heat of this competitive affair after just six chase starts in his life, but he’s surely still the right side of the assessor and it has been done with horses that young in this race before (Caid Du Berlais in 2014 and Cyfor Malta in 1998).
Some firms doubled Nassalam’s Cheltenham odds on the back of his weekend performance and I’m willing to wager that was possibly a little too rash, especially with the prospect of blinkers returning in a couple of weeks' time.
Published at 1600 GMT on 30/10/22
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