Paddock analysis from the Christmas period part two | Ed Keeper, Matata and Park Princess

As ever, the King George VI Chase was the centrepiece of the Christmas programme and this season's running was eventful to say the least. And although one shouldn't view the mid-season highlight as a trial for anything, the outcome left more negatives than positives so far as the Cheltenham Gold Cup picture is concerned.

Hewick looked an unlikely winner for most of the final circuit, but stayed on strongly as things rather fell apart ahead of him in the straight, getting up in the last 50 yards and winning going away. Hewick was giving a good account when he fell in last season's Gold Cup and he wouldn't be a forlorn hope this spring, particularly on good ground. However, he's not the most substantial physically and the Cheltenham fences would again be a worry.

Hewick might have been only third had Shishkin not unseated Nico de Boinville soon after two out, in the process badly hampering Bravemansgame. Shishkin was relaxed beforehand and although he just needed shaking up briefly away from the start, there was no repeat of his Ascot misbehaviour. Shishkin was finding in front when he departed and looking sure to win.

Shishkin has since been reported to have a sore splint and may now not have a prep run prior to the Gold Cup. However, it is interesting that the Cotswold and Denman were mentioned as options, were a run felt necessary, rather than the Ascot Chase, which he won last season.

Taken in isolation, this was a promising effort with the Gold Cup in mind. On paper, Shishkin's Festival record looks really good too. He won the Sky Bet Supreme as a novice hurdler, then the Arkle as a novice chaser. He was also runner-up to Envoi Allen in the Ryanair last March. However, in the last-named he hardly went with any fluency – his rider reporting that the horse was hanging left – and belted three out. In 2022, he was never going from an early stage in the Champion Chase, drawing stumps in the back straight.

Allaho looked in good order, but was on his toes and seemed to be beaten fair and square on what was his first competitive outing in over 18 months. It's possible he's not quite the force of old. Last season's leading novice The Real Whacker was the pick of the field on condition, but ran a good deal better than on his return, but he's a fair bit to do to make the grade at top level. Bravemansgame might be the Gold Cup contender to emerge but he doesn't seem to have gone forward since last season.

The feature chase on the second day at Kempton, the Desert Orchid, was run as a Grade 2 limited handicap for the first time. It looked quite competitive on paper, even if a bigger field might have been hoped for and the principals would probably have been in the race anyway, were it still a conditions event.

Last season's winner Editeur du Gite followed up under topweight, back to his gutsy best after a couple of below-par runs on his first two starts. He went on to win the Clarence House last winter, but following up in that will be beyond him if Jonbon or El Fabiolo turns up there on song.

It was a shame Boothill failed to complete. He was on the heels of the leaders when taking a crashing fall at the eighth, fortunately seeming none the worse as he galloped away afterwards.

The other Grade 2 on the second day at Kempton, the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, which Boothill had won the previous season, went in impressive fashion to Master Chewy. A grand chasing type who looked in fine shape, Master Chewy had been beaten in handicaps on his previous two starts and his win had little impact on the market for the Arkle. While the Irish look to have a strong hand for that race, there was plenty to like about his effort and he deserves a bit more credit than he got.

Among the more interesting races over fences during the Christmas/New Year period were a couple of small-field, two-mile handicaps, one at Newbury and the other at Cheltenham. Issar d'Airy, who is a strong sort who looks the part for chasing, made a winning debut over fences at Newbury, heavily eased on the run-in in beating the warm favourite Martator. There's no reason to think the well-treated Martator, clear of the rest, didn't give his running, which suggests Issar d'Airy has started off over fences already much better than he was as a hurdler – he's open to plenty of improvement and could go a long way before the handicapper has his measure.

At Cheltenham, Libberty Hunter got the better of the free-going Matata only in the last 100 yards in a battle of last-time-out winners. Both will be of interest again, the runner-up as much as the winner, with his bold jumping (on display on both his chase starts) likely to stand him in good stead.

The slight disappointment of the race was Petit Tonnerre. He looks the part and had shaped with promise in graded company on his first two starts over fences, an element in those runs of learning on the job. However, having been given a fair-looking mark for his switch to handicaps, Petit Tonnerre was tentative at his fences and got outpaced before the straight, his rider again looking after him in the closing stages.

A step up in trip could give Petit Tonnerre more time to build confidence with his jumping, though it's possible that he'll now return to hurdling.

The performance of Stage Star in Cheltenham's feature handicap was perhaps the biggest let-down of the whole holiday period. He'd looked so good in the Paddy Power, and it was fascinating to see him continue in handicaps, anticipation keen to see what he could do off a mark 11 lb higher. It never really looked likely to happen, Stage Star running a flat race and reported to be stiff afterwards.

Cheltenham also featured the listed four-year-old bumper. The field wasn't that strong a line-up on looks, though the winner Kel du Large has more about him than most. He's bred for jumping too, and just needed pushing out to score decisively. My pick on looks was the Gary Moore-trained newcomer Authentic Legacy. An athletic type with an ok pedigree, he shaped encouragingly until inexperience told off the bridle. An ordinary bumper at least ought to be within his grasp.

I also liked Park Princess, who won a fillies' junior bumper at Newbury just before Christmas. This race was run over two miles for the first time and attracted a more interesting field as a result, the winner a daughter of Walk In The Park who is out of a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi. Park Princess came there on the bridle three furlongs out and was going away, well on top, at the finish. She has a future over jumps.

Finally, back over hurdles, and the three-mile handicap at Cheltenham. Several of the field look likely to be of interest again, including the unexposed winner Butch and Springwell Bay, but the most exciting runner for the future is Ed Keeper. He is quite an imposing type, suggesting fences down the line. He tanked through the race as well, just in front when he hit the last.

Ed Keeper seemed unsettled by the error and couldn't recover his momentum, but such was the way he was travelling that he looked sure to have won had he jumped the last properly.

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