Matt Brocklebank picks out his best value bets from the quality Good Friday fixtures at Lingfield Park and Newcastle, including the Ryan Moore-ridden Dubai One.
Recommended bets: All-Weather Championships
1pt e.w. Final in 3.25 Newcastle at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
1pt win Utmost in 3.55 Newcastle at 7/1
1pt win Dubai One in 4.10 Lingfield at 5/1
2pts win Absolute Blast in 4.40 Lingfield at 4/1
Ryan Moore has a fantastic strike-rate when riding in the royal blue silks of Godolphin and he’s fancied to enhance the statistics when partnering DUBAI ONE in the 32Red 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes (4.10) at Lingfield on Good Friday.
Moore is 4-8 for Saeed bin Suroor over the last five seasons and gets the leg-up on the daughter of Exceed And Excel for the first time after she won a shade cosily under Oisin Murphy at Wolverhampton at the end of last month.
The victory brought up a hat-trick of wins since she was returned to the all-weather after a disappointing run at Newmarket last October, and although it’s a big leap from winning a handicap off a mark of 88 to this highly competitive affair, the three-year-old filly does receive weight from the boys and she looks open to considerable further improvement.
She also beat the reopposing Sutter County on exactly the same terms at Wolverhampton in December and that one is clearly quite closely matched with Second Thought based on their recent course form over seven furlongs.
They top the market and consequently Dubai One, who only seems to just do enough in her races and now boasts a career record of 4-6 on synthetic surfaces, rates a decent bet at 6/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (5/1 generally).
Moore is going to need to be at his masterful best to guide the talented but quirky Convey to back-to-back victories for the first time in his career in the Betway Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes (4.40), and at the prices he’s worth taking on with Archie Watson’s ABSOLUTE BLAST.
She’s not been with her current trainer long, having switched from Iain Jardine’s stable after progressing markedly over the winter, but her two most recent starts have been her best and Watson is already targeting some major Group prizes for the mare later in the year after claiming Listed glory at Kempton at the start of the month.
She ran on strongly at the finish there to get the better of John Gosden’s well-touted Linguistic and prior to that she was beaten just half a length into third behind Convey in the Winter Derby.
The weights are marginally more favourable (2lb better off) this time and she looks a far more reliable prospect than the reopposing winner.
The ITV4 cameras will also be at Newcastle where the 32Red Burradon Conditions Stakes (3.55) is bordering on the unmissable.
Five QIPCO 2000 Guineas entries go to post for the mile contest and it looks highly significant that UTMOST lines up here rather than take advantage of his handicap mark of 91.
Connections are obviously thinking big for the Giant’s Causeway colt and he could hardly have been more impressive on his sole start at two, winning a seven furlong Leicester maiden by a length.
The second and third immediately franked the form with subsequent maiden victories and it’s encouraging to see the Gosden yard has really started to catch fire over the past week. Frankie Dettori is in town for the ride and he's fancied to enjoy his first visit to the track.
Earlier on the same Gosforth Park card, FINAL looks worth an interest under bottom weight in the Betway Handicap (3.25).
He's typically been kept very busy by Mark Johnston and was a big eyecatcher when eventually recovering from a slow start to finish second behind Snoano at Pontefract on Tuesday.
It's a quick turnaround for the five-year-old but his last two wins have come after breaks of just five days and nine days, filling the runner-up spot on each occasion before scoring, so he clearly thrives on his racing and his most recent success came over this course and distance in March.
P J McDonald takes the ride and his record for the yard this year is really encouraging, having ridden five winners and 10 seconds from just 28 attempts so far in 2017.
Final is just 4lb higher in the ratings than for his recent course success and that running-on effort earlier in the week suggests he's still very much on a workable mark. He's overpriced at 16/1 and is worth an each-way interest.
Posted at 1636 BST on 13/04/17.
