Oaks tips: Antepost preview and best bets for 2024 Oaks at Epsom

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Antepost Value Bet tips: 2024 Classics

1pt win See The Fire in the Oaks at 33/1 (bet365) – General 25/1 also fine

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Colts' Classics? Not much to see here...

City Of Troy’s Dewhurst Stakes win was simply a joy to watch and, being a son of Justify out of Galileo mare Together Forever, this colt is both a considerable nod to the past while clearly representing a significant look ahead to the future for all at Ballydoyle.

He really does have the hallmarks of a potential Coolmore behemoth, both on and off the track with a bit of luck, in years to come and if you’ve wound up here in the hope of me picking any holes whatsoever in this horse’s long-term prospects, or his weekend performance on the Rowley Mile, then I’m afraid I’m going to have to let you down sharply.

The next time we’ll see City Of Troy on track is likely to be in the 2000 Guineas next May and he is now even-money favourite, closely followed by stablemate Henry Longfellow at 5/1. It is 14/1 Rosallion, 16/1 bar.

Interestingly, we don’t have to go back far at all to see how a similar dynamic played out for Godolphin, their unbeaten Dewhurst hero Native Trail going into the 2022 Guineas as the short-priced favourite and ultimately having to play second-fiddle to Charlie Appleby stable companion Coroebus, who had won the Group 3 Autumn Stakes on his final start at two.

Coroebus was officially rated 115 and, in Henry Longfellow, City Of Troy has a 119-rated Group 1 winner standing in his way, and yet still the discrepancy in price does not look too great. I won’t be alone in fully expecting City Of Troy to be odds-on for the 2000 Guineas before too long but we can safely let evens go with over six months to wait to be paid out.

Aidan O’Brien already has the 2024 Derby market pretty well sewn up too as on top of the aforementioned pair (City Of Troy 5/2, Henry Longfellow 8/1), we have Diego Velazquez around the 7/1 mark for Epsom and that’s before his final outing of the year in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday week.

Credit where it’s due, Charlie Appleby has been stressing how important the Dubai Future Champions Festival was going to be for his team of two-year-olds and, while opting to duck the Dewhurst entirely this time, he did land the Zetland Stakes with Arabian Crown and another Autumn Stakes (the fifth time he’s won the 1m G3 race) courtesy of Ancient Wisdom.

Arabian Crown is a lovely horse who I could see developing into a St Leger type at three, but Ancient Wisdom is the one with a touch more brilliance about him and that’s going to have to be a prerequisite when they finally face up to the pick of the O’Brien mob next term. The 16s about him for the Derby isn’t exactly tempting, but I’m surprised most firms have his Arabian Crown even shorter.

Focus on the Fillies

The state of play when it comes to the 1000 Guineas and Oaks is a lot more open at this point and I reckon there’s a decent bet following the weekend’s action.

Ylang Ylang was very good on the day and clearly benefited from the punishing pace set by 25/1 stable companion Brilliant, which helped draw out her stamina.

Some of these just couldn’t maintain the gallop and ultimately paid the price, including the lightly-raced Classical Song, who did quite well to be fourth having reportedly burst a blood vessel. She’s not one to be giving up on by any means when back to full health, but the second and third remain a couple of fillies with serious potential and look a touch underestimated antepost.

Plenty of Classic winners have been beaten in the Fillies’ Mile over the years, including Cachet, Mother Earth and Hermosa, all of whom went on to win the Guineas. In 2019, Love finished third in the Fillies’ Mile before doing the Guineas-Oaks double the following year and, while we might not be in that sort of territory, Friday’s third SEE THE FIRE looks one to be interested in long-term.

• Click here to back See The Fire for the Oaks with Sky Bet

Trained by Andrew Balding and from that wonderful family owner Jeff Smith knows so well (she's out of his Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen), the daughter of Sea The Stars was having just the third start of her life and ran a race full of promise behind O’Brien’s filly, who had already had four runs, and the Ollie Sangster-trained Shuwari, who had made an eyecatching late run to take second in the Rockfel, gaining vital experience of the Rowley Mile in the process.

That course experience picked up by Ylang Ylang (only third in the Rockfel following a poor Moyglare effort) and Shuwari clearly paid off late on in the Fillies’ Mile, but See The Fire was beaten just a length and a quarter having briefly looked booked for victory when taking it up around two furlongs from the finish.

Once again she hung to her left, as she had done on debut on the July Course and when second to Darnation at Doncaster, resulting in her ending up just three horse widths from the stands’ side, having broken from stall two very close to the far rail. She clearly covered more ground than those who finished in front of her.

Balding is going to need to iron out that tendency through the winter months and I’ve no doubt he’ll find and correct whatever may be causing it, whether it is mental or physical. Although I’m not sure we should be overly concerned about the trait going forward as her half-brother Spirit Mixer used to drift left a lot in the early days, but it didn’t stop him improving from a BHA mark of just 66 right through to 100 once he matured.

A good-ground Guineas might just be a bit lively in the spring, and I’ve got maximum respect for Opera Singer at the top of that market anyway, but whether her stamina will stretch out to 12 furlongs is open to debate. See The Fire, however, is made for middle-distances next year and it wouldn’t surprise me if what she’s been able to show at two is a mere glimpse into her true potential. The general 25/1 on offer for the Oaks looks decent business.

First published on Sporting Life Plus at 1500 BST on 15/10/23

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