Our value-seeking expert has been in good form of late and has a couple of juicy-priced selections to consider for Friday at Newmarket.
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Value Bet tips: Friday, September 29
1pt win Crystal Caprice in 1.50 Newmarket at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Elegancia in 2.25 Newmarket at 28/1 (General)
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Don't dismiss Stoute's fresh Crystal
Day two of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket features four level-weights races on ITV3 and I’m pretty keen to tread carefully, especially with the weekend schedule here and over in Paris in mind.
Having said that, there are a couple I like at current odds, the first of which is CRYSTAL CAPRICE, who went off 9/4 favourite for last year’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai British EBF Rosemary Stakes and can be backed at 25/1 this time around.
She arrived on a four-timer 12 months ago and certainly didn’t disgrace herself in third, beaten just a length and a half having traded at even money in-running on the Betfair Exchange.
The daughter of Frankel has failed to add to her tally since then but has only made four visits to the track and she evidently wasn’t herself when trailing in last when dropped to handicap level for the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out in June.
She’s much better judged on her previous Listed effort at Ayr, when again shaping well in the run before not seeing out the 10-furlong trip in a race won by subsequent Nassau heroine Al Husn.
She’s clearly bred to stay that far, her dam being a half-sister to the top-class Crystal Ocean, but trainer Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore have always felt speed was her strongest asset, and her track record backs that up.
Granted, Moore jumps ship to ride stablemate Potapova here but that’s presumably contributed towards Crystal Caprice being available at such a big price, and I like the fact Stoute has given her loads of time off since the summer flop.
Her record when fresh isn’t all that inspiring but conditions look likely to suit now ready to resume and she smacks of a filly with unfinished business on course before taking up broodmare duties.
A Listed victory would enhance her value considerably so I doubt Stoute will have left much to work on fitness-wise, and she should get a strong pace to chase too with the likes of Quick Change, Silver Lady and the keen-going Ameynah expected to take each other on through the early stages.
Sometimes the front-runners just don’t come back at this venue, but Richard Kingscote will hopefully find some cover from stall 11 and look to pick his way through the pack.
How much improvement still to come?
I’ve landed on another supposed second-string in the Group 3 Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Stakes as well, with Harry and Roger Charlton’s ELEGANCIA looking more than a little over-priced at a general 28/1.
Kevin Stott takes the ride, with Moore on stable companion Time Lock, but Stott is 2-4 (plus a second and a third) for the Charltons so far, and while this well-bred filly has a lot to find on bare form, I don’t think we’ve seen anything like the best of her just yet.
Granted, she’s been a slow-burner and was well held when pitched into Listed company at Goodwood back in June, but she’s progressed a lot in recent weeks, winning a Bath novice really cosily before following up on handicap debut from a mark of 87 at Ascot (replay below).
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That performance still isn’t strong enough if taken at face value but she travelled sweetly before coming from near the back of the field off a slowly-run gallop. She was toying with them late on and I reckon it wants marking up quite significantly, while she's bred to stay every yard of this new 12-furlong trip as her dam won over the distance.
She’ll relish the forecast strong pace on offer here and think her class will carry her a long way into it from off the pace.
Published at 1600 BST on 28/09/23
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