Our man tackles Saturday's competitive bet365 Cambridgeshire card at Newmarket and he's got a couple of each-way picks in the big betting race.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 30
2pts win Sacred Angel in 2.25 Newmarket at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt e.w. Storm Catcher in 3.40 Newmarket at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Carolus Magnus in 3.40 Newmarket at 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
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Magnus appeals at wild price
The bet365 Cambridgeshire is a brilliant betting heat and fairly recent winners at 100/1, 50/1, 40/1 (x3) and 33/1 highlight just how difficult a race it can be to try and solve. The likes of Lord North, Educate, Pipedreamer and Blue Monday have, in the interests of balance, obliged as market leaders since the turn of the millennium, and it's now over to this year's jolly, Greek Order, to justify the hype.
He unquestionably looked a very well-handicapped horse when scooting clear of a decent field at Newbury last month, but the assessor has done his level best by way of a 10lb rise, and the son of Kingman now tackles older horses for the very first time in his life.
He may well have the minerals for the task at hand, but I'm happy to take him on purely on price grounds, although it’s looking like it could be the quickest ground he’s ever encountered too so that would also be at the back of my mind if even vaguely considering following the money on Saturday.
Faster the ground the better for CAROLUS MAGNUS, according to his joint-trainer David Easterby, and while I wasn’t quite expecting it to be in this particular race, I’ve been waiting for his new yard to switch this horse back to turf all summer.
The saddle slipped on his stable debut and belated return from an injury setback at York in late-July, since when he’s been chipping away on the all-weather, twice catching the eye with the manner in which he has travelled after being slowly away (blindfold removed late at Newcastle two starts ago).
The last run at Wolverhampton earlier this month was admittedly a much lesser effort but that means he's on offer at a monster price on his return to Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, where he recorded his two victories for previous trainer Andrew Balding.
The most recent of those wins came off a mark of 85 which is precisely what he's able to run off here, and I reckon a strongly-run nine furlongs should be fine as he’s just about shown in the past that he stays 10 on decent ground.
Carolus Magnus was 14/1 for last year’s Cambridgeshire despite running off 5lb higher and it may well have been the long-term target ever since the Easterbys took him in at Sheriff Hutton. I'll take my chances at the odds on offer.
Storm set to finish strongly
The other one who looks to have been underestimated in the market is STORM CATCHER for Simon Pearce. This horse is the trainer's only winner since March but he’s clearly a bit of a stable star and appears to have improved massively from this time last year.
If you delve back even further into his profile, he briefly went hurdling in 2021-22 but only made two appearances after failing to take to the jumps, and clearly benefited from a return to the Flat when going through the grades on the all-weather last winter.
Last month's victory on a competitive Racing League card at Newcastle means he’s now 5-10 on all-weather surfaces, compared to a less inspiring 0-5 on turf, but his Ascot third behind a couple of Godolphin runners at the end of July showed he can be just as effective on the green stuff, and there’s no escaping the fact he’s still open to a bit of improvement in this sort of race.
That can’t be said of too many of these and I loved how he scythed through the pack to win with plenty in hand at Gosforth Park last time, dossing in front when he thought he’d done enough. A 4lb rise for that sort of victory looks on the lenient side and I could see him coping well with this huge field and strong pace.
Shane Foley is an eyecatching booking (Dettori rode him at Ascot) and there seems to be plenty of pace right across the track so while Carolus Magnus (27) may be the better drawn of the pair from a historical point of view, I won't be losing any sleep over Storm Catcher's draw in 11 as he’ll have the likes of Thunder Ball (8), Killybegs Warrior (12), Tyrrhenian Sea (14), Saga (15) and Paradias (18) to help tow him along with a bit of luck.
Catch-me-if-you-can with Sacred selection?
The Royal Lodge and the Middle Park are no-bet races for me, especially the latter in which I can’t see beyond Vandeek and River Tiber, who head the market.
The Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes is a different matter, though, as Sky Bet Lowther winner Relief Rally is priced up as if she's the best horse in the race by a clear margin and I just don’t see it that way at all. Combine that with her come-from-behind run style on this course, which tends to favour prominent racers, and she has to be taken on.
I've got plenty of respect for the lightly-raced French runner Jasna’s Secret, who has been privately snapped up by Wathnan Racing since taking her tally to 2-2 at Deauville in the middle of last month. She won her debut at the same track and on both occasions she was able to race quite tight to the stands' rail, which may or may not have been an advantage.
Either way, the Rowley Mile – with a middle draw and the stalls in the centre - is going to feel like an entirely different beast for the daughter of Galiway and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see her get a little lost heading into the Dip.
SACRED ANGEL is relatively battle-hardened and I reckon she’s being overlooked again having won the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot as a largely unconsidered 16/1 shot in late-July.
She went off a big price for the Prix Morny last time too but acquitted herself well in the face of a seriously tough task, taking on Ramatuelle and some of the most promising colts around, as already touched upon.
The very soft ground in France won’t have been ideal either and I can see James Doyle, who comes in for the ride, looking to dictate the pace before gunning towards the far rail from the lowest stall. She'll be a tough nut to crack in that instance and I'd back to her to win this at 6/1 or bigger.
Published at 1600 BST on 29/09/23
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