The bet365 Cambridgeshire at Newmarket comes under the spotlight in the latest long-range preview.
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Antepost Value Bet tips: 2023 Flat season
1pt win Lord Of Biscay in bet365 Cambridgeshire at 25/1 (William Hill, Unibet) - 20/1 General
Never a bad time for a closer look at the bet365 Cambridgeshire once the weights are out and we’ve seen some pretty taking recent performances from horses entered up for the valuable nine-furlong handicap on the Rowley Mile.
First up, last year’s Newmarket third Dual Identity, cut to a best-priced 10/1 to go two places better having been as big as 25s prior to his ridiculously easy win off a reduced mark (87) at Sandown on September 2.
Bumped up 8lb to 95 for the pleasure, he’s now 4lb higher than when arriving at HQ last September, though he’s never won off anything higher than the 87 he defied in style last time out.
The one thing you have to appreciate, in Dual Identity’s defence, is that he wasn’t just third in last year’s Cambridgeshire, he was a pretty unfortunate third – leading the whole field from around a furlong out and ultimately ‘winning’ in a group of eight who raced on the far side, only to be done by Majestic and Bell Rock who had been dragged along in a much bigger group of 20 towards the stands’ side rail (replay below).
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Would he have won it off 4lb higher with a bit more luck in terms of basic track position? Quite possibly, but at 10/1 I think it’s fair to see the juice has been squeezed from the lemon, and we’ll give him a respectful swerve.
The current market leader is the progressive and lightly-raced Greek Order who had been off the track since May before powering home on his first go over 10 furlongs at Newbury on August 19.
A full-brother to Sangarius, the 2019 Hampton Court Stakes winner, he's got significant upside but been bumped up 10lb to 95 which still might not be enough to get him into the race. I can certainly resist any sort of temptation to back him at a best-priced 13/2 given it might genuinely be touch-and-go come the final declarations.
Glenfinnan is another three-year-old on the up and I’m certain he’s well-handicapped wherever he runs next, but it's a similar story with him as the 4lb extra for his win at Ascot last Friday still might not be enough to safely see him into the field for a Cambridgeshire.
The year-older Koy Koy also came good last week, storming to a Racing League success under Billy Loughnane at Wolverhampton having enjoyed the perfect stalk-and-pounce trip just behind the front-runner.
Formerly with Glenfinnan’s trainer Andrew Balding, George Boughey has clearly got Koy Koy back on the straight and narrow after a gelding operation and it would come as no surprise to see the four-year-old really kick on from Wolves. However, it may prove to be on the all-weather where he truly lets himself down and realises his full potential. A productive winter campaign awaits, I suspect.
The ex-Andre Fabre-trained Ancient Rome is a fascinating one at the top of the shop after wins at Goodwood and Keeneland since joining Charlie Hills, but the Group 2 Joel Stakes on the Friday of the Cambridegshire meeting looks just as likely to be targeted now, given his lofty revised mark of 110.
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The once-errant Silver Sword – who refused to race on his first couple of visits to a racecourse – has had a cracking season already and shaped like a horse ahead of his mark when winning the Sky Bet Mile Handicap, the finale at the Ebor Festival, while Torito is the most tempting of the John and Thady Gosden-trained trio to have been entered (along with Saga and Unforgiven).
Gosden senior has won the race a record five times, most recently with Lord North in 2019, and Kingman colt Torito gave Silver Sword the thick end of a stone in weight and a thorough beating at the Derby meeting at Epsom, before finishing fourth to Waipiro in a strong edition of the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He’s not been seen since but his antepost Newmarket odds range from 10/1 to 20s, so there’s clearly some confusion over whether he’s likely to turn up here. If he does then no doubt he’ll be at the skinny end of that spectrum, but there’s another fascinating three-year-old at an even bigger price I’m dead keen on at this stage.
Roger Varian’s LORD OF BISCAY is the horse in question and the 25/1 on offer with a couple of major firms (20s generally) definitely underestimates his potential.
A well-bred son of Lope De Vega who won a Yarmouth maiden from subsequent winner Obelix (now rated 95) first time out last September, his only other juvenile start came in the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury, where the heavy ground was put forward as a possible excuse for his relatively disappointing effort (sent off 3/1) on the day.
He’s only raced twice this time around, landing the odds under a penalty in a Nottingham novice over the extended mile before running a highly creditable race in a Listed race at Chantilly when last sighted on July 1.
Now rated 100, he’s going to make the final cut of 35 if connections are keen on having a crack and I think there are reasons to be positive, primarily his breeding.
One of his half-brothers, Bayside Boy, was also trained by Varian and he got better and better through both of his two seasons in training, finishing third in the Dewhurst on this track before filling the same spot just a length and three-quarters behind Luxembourg in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster.
As a three-year-old Bayside Boy progressed with time too, ending up winning a Listed race at Sandown and the QEII at Ascot on Champions Day, while Lord Of Biscay’s other well-known half-brother, Forest Ranger, enjoyed two of his career highlights over precisely this course and distance – winning the Earl Of Sefton and the Darley Stakes in 2018.
He loved the Rowley Mile and he also performed very well when fresh, twice winning after layoffs of around 180 days, so Lord Of Biscay potentially returning for a big autumn prize following three months out of action doesn’t look anything to be worried about at all.
It’s his only entry at the time of writing and while Varian has other options with the likes of Tyrrhenian Sea and Perotto further up the weights, neither looks as well treated as the selection.
Akhu Najla is the other one from the same stable but he’s only ever won a maiden and was disappointing at York last month. I’m surprised that one is shorter than stablemate Lord Of Biscay in the betting as the latter still looks an exciting prospect with that pedigree in mind, and I can see him shuffling his way closer to the head of the market over the next few weeks.
First published on Sporting Life Plus at 1300 BST on 10/09/23
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